IMO, we could be there tomorrow with significant risk.
I've thought the military strategy all along was to push inwards to develop a ring around Baghdad and then wait it out. We assure ourselves of eliminating outside threats, reduce risk of missile attacks on Kuwait and Israel, provide positive humanitarian efforts where secure, get Iraqi people on our side and then let Baghdad stew...
Part of the reason we've kept infrastructure in place, IMO to get news of "liberated" cities into Baghdad....
...then again...what the hell do I know.