Basra: Major Battle Still Ahead

Summary

The Iraqi counteroffensive on March 26 -- and indications that earlier reports of a civilian uprising in Basra were false -- suggest that coalition forces will continue to face serious resistance in the south. But Iraqi forces advancing from Basra to launch an attack could be engaged in the open, which raises the chances for a coalition victory there. The major battle for Basra still lies ahead.

Analysis

Conflicting information circulated on March 26 about fierce fighting around Basra, Iraq's second-largest city. It has become increasingly evident that Iraqi forces around Basra are capable not only of mounting a stubborn defense, but also of launching major attacks. U.S. Brig. Gen. Vincent Brooks, speaking for CENTCOM, said, "It is a very confusing situation, to say the least."

Leaving Basra under Iraqi control would open the possibility of coalition forces being attacked from the rear, which would delay their advance on Baghdad. And for Iraq, losing the battle for Basra would be a major military and political loss. British forces on the ground in Basra, if not reinforced by ground reserves, risk being bogged down in fighting in and around the city for quite some time.

As of now, Iraqi forces outnumber British in the area. Britain has the 7th Armoured Brigade, the Desert Rats, semi-circling Basra from the west. 3 Commando is at Al Faw and spread toward Basra. The 16th Airmobile is southwest of Basra, and the 3rd Mechanized Infantry Brigade is just south of Basra. The 1st Armoured Division is northwest of Basra, but it is engaged around Al Qurnah and cannot help in the battle for Basra.

The Iraqis reportedly have at least 50,000 troops in Basra, a city of 1.7 million people. This includes the army's 51st Mechanized Division, some unidentified Republican Guard units, some special operations forces, several thousand Fedayeen commandos, Baath Party armed units and numerous so-called "People's Army," or urban community, units. Stratfor's sources say that the Iraqi southern command remains firmly in control of Basra.

Evidence suggests Iraqi military leaders will count on their superior manpower to change the situation in the south. But we believe that both the superior British ground fire capability and the coalition's domination of the air will counter any manpower advantages Iraq enjoys. We believe these factors will allow coalition forces to defeat Iraqi forces in Basra -- especially if they leave the city to launch an attack, opening the possibility for air strikes.

It appears the Iraqi southern command has decided to launch a multi-directional counteroffensive from Basra, with the goal of defeating and partly encircling British forces in southern Iraq -- including those around Basra and all the way down to the Iraqi maritime border in the Persian Gulf, Stratfor sources in the Russian and German intelligence communities say. Al Jazeera TV reports that Iraq's March 26 offensive out of Basra succeeded in encircling some British units.

This strategy has resulted in several attacks from Basra on March 26. During March 26 fighting, some unidentified infantry units of the Iraqi army reportedly regained control over one of three Basra airports. At the same time, the Iraqi 51st Mechanized Division launched two battalion-size attacks on the British positions at Az Zubayr. But the main offensive move came southeast of Basra, where the 25th Mechanized Brigade -- also of the 51st Mechanized -- moved swiftly through the darkness toward Al Faw peninsula. Their apparent aim was to join the Iraqi forces still engaged in fighting there.

The 25th inflicted an unidentified number of losses on the British units at Abu Al Khasib, and reportedly broke through their positions. The British units called for air support. This Iraqi column has come under heavy bombardment on March 26.

But our understanding is that this Iraqi venture out of the city has been a tactical -- and perhaps even operational -- mistake. By doing this, Iraqi forces exposed themselves to harsh allied bombing. In Stratfor's opinion, an Iraqi counteroffensive has few if any chances outside Basra. By the same token, British forces could make an equally dear mistake by going into the city if Iraqi forces have not surrendered and continue to offer resistance.

The latest intelligence, from Iranian and Russian sources, indicates that there was no uprising against the Iraqi government in Basra. Reports on Arab television support this claim, showing video of calm streets in Basra. The news of the uprising came from a British journalist, and was subsequently supported by British government officials.

Some sources speculate that the talk about the uprising was part of the British command's psychological warfare campaign, aimed at suppressing the morale of Iraqi forces and encouraging a true uprising in Basra and other Shia-populated areas of Iraq. In particular, inside Basra have been SAS and other special operations units, as well as MI6 operatives and agents, trying to foment an uprising there. But their efforts so far have failed, Russian sources say.

As for a reported gathering of several dozen people inside Basra who reportedly came under mortar attack from Iraqi troops, Iranian and Arab sources say they were locals gathering to express anger at coalition bombing of civilian areas in the city -- not to denounce the Iraqi government -- and that the gathering was not bombed.

As for a reported gathering of several dozen people inside Basra who reportedly came under mortar attack from Iraqi troops, Iranian and Arab sources say they were locals gathering to express anger at coalition bombing of civilian areas in the city -- not to denounce the Iraqi government -- and that the gathering was not bombed.

Well, if Iranian and arab sources said it, it must be true.

Reports on Arab television support this claim, showing video of calm streets in Basra.

Stratfor may be naive enough not to understand "Arab" tv is propaganda. Even if they don't like Hussein, they hate us more and want to whip up pan-arabism.

A shot of "Calm streets" proves nothing. What about the next street over?

It's part of my personality to pick on Stratfor or anyone else when they're wrong. If they're 80% right in an article, I'll focus on the 20% that missed it.

They get some things right. I'll give them credit when they get things 100% right. I'd hate to have me as a professor.

The Iraqi military in Basra is cut off from command and control in Baghdad. There is no retreat for them, no matter what direction they go. Some will try to run and be destroyed as has already happened. The different army factions will turn on each other with ferocity as they realize the futility of their situation. Many of the irregulars will sneak away at any opportunity to surrender. All that will be left are the murderous Fedayeen and the citizens of Basra will eventually rat all of them out. It will take time, but the future of Saddam's regime in Basra is nothing but doom and gloom.

The Brits have already said they are not planning any major assault. they will do selected and targeted operations.

They do not have the will to put civilians in danger. They are working on better intel as well.

This report is probably more truth than fancy.

It is becomming obvious that the Iranian influence on the Shi'as is much more substantial than first assumed.

While not "supporting" the Ba'thists, the Shi'as certainly aren't welcoming the "infidels".

The US has a major, international, public relations job explaining to the world that the Shi'as, who we ostensibly came to liberate, turned out to be an unwilling "victim" and should also be subject to the same "rules of engagement" heretofore reserved for the Ba'thists.

Good luck Mr. Powell and Mr. Straw.

>>>They do not have the will to put civilians in danger.

And while the secret police, the enforcers, are still around we can't expect much help from the public.

It's a sniper's city. I think the Brits have it right. Probe, hunt, kill. Call in bombs when you have them targeted. Like in a school. But it may take forever ...

At some point it may be necessary to take the decision to get them out of the city, even if there are substantial civilian causulties. Alot depends on political prep of the battlefield. We need to convince people that the tactics being used by the Iraqis, using civies as shields/sandbags, can't be dealt with any other way.

snooker

It will be a bugaboo snook, but you are right.

What does not get killed will walk away when the news comes out that the regime is no longer.

They will have to wait it out, and there will be a lot of hand wringing.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.