[the_doc]

I think it's pretty likely that Saddam is dead as a doornail.

This is because

1) The Iraqis are conceding that some of the aides were killed. (If they were killed, the surviving Iraqis would have to admit this, because the Iraqi military would need an explanation for the chain-of-command failures which would soon be very obvious to the military anyway.)

2) The Iraqi fanatics, who would be determined to continue the fight, would not admit that Saddam is dead.

3) HOWEVER, if the aides were killed and Saddam was hit, then the Iraqis are evidently being forced by the circumstances to admit that WE HIT THE RIGHT BUNKER.

4) MOST IMPORTANT, it is almost inconceivable that Saddam would SURVIVE such a direct hit on his own bunker.

In short, it is highly suspicious that it is now being claimed that we hit the bunker with deadly force but that Saddam magically survived.

And I think the videotape tirade is suspicious in more ways than one, as follows:

5) If Saddam was wounded in an ernormous series of viciously violent explosions, he sure didn't look like it. (Even if he wasn't hit by shrapnel, he should have shown scrapes and/or bruises on his face.)

6) So, if Saddam was wounded, it's much more likely that it was a pre-taped video designed specifically for scenarios in which Saddam would find it rather inconvenient to appear live (for example, if he were dead)--even if it were politically important for him to appear live.

7) Besides, there are other features of the videotape which independently argue that it was either using a "body-double" or it was a pre-recorded video.

8) Finally, the videotape was weirdly generic. The script did not contain any of Saddam's expected defiance (e.g., "You just tried to kill me, but you missed!"). It also did not make any completely reasonable allusions to the details of our attack (e.g., "The wicked Americans have attacked our capital and this was their biggest mistake!").

In any case, the evidence is pretty danged strong that the videotape is just part of a propaganda deception.

Ah, but that reinforces my argument from Points 1 through 4.

(Besides, Peter "Milk Factory" Arnett thinks Saddam is alive.)

[CCWoody]

Plus, it seems that many of the Republican guard commanders are in communication with our Military about giving up. Why would they do this unless they thought that the one holding a gun to their head was out of action?

[the_doc]

Notice that I am arguing that the videotape itself argues in a very peculiar way that Saddam is dead, not alive--since the videotape argues that the Iraqis are just fanatical liars.

(Ain't that a weird finding in the light of all the discouragement which FReepers have expressed at seeing the videotape?)

[DryFly]

I haven't seen "Saddam's" speech in full. Does he reference the date or anything to suggest it was done after the decapitation strike?

[ThinkDifferent]

Very convincing logic and I fervently hope you're right. I wonder if this wasn't as unplanned as we were told. Taking out Saddam in a single surgical strike would certainly create "shock and awe"...

[BamaFan]

You have given this a lot of thought, but I'll wager that you are completely wrong. I'd bet that: 1) SH is still alive and 2) the video of him is exactly what the Iraqi's say it is, him, taped after the strike.

[razorback-bert]

"Saddam Hussein Denies He's alive."