Interesting comment

jaloti.com ^ | 3/18/3 | jaloti

[HarryKnutszacke]

3/18/03 All times Eastern
pre-open--I'm gonna digress a bit and prognosticate about the war first (don't worry, I believe it is germaine). No value judgements--whether you think it is right or wrong, there will be a war, and what happens will affect you, your family and your money, like it or not. I predict about a 50%-60% chance that the war goes very well--short, clean, no chem/bio, no oil well fires. Paradoxically, this is because of all the uncertainty, all the opposition to the war, all the doubt. Saddam has literally "shot the messenger" in the past, therefore he has no one to tell him bad news. All he has is CNN and the world media, which gives him the impression of a divided world, and a divided America. He sees that Osama is still alive, he sees Colonel Qadaffi still around, he sees Arafat still in power despite an Israeli military that could crush him like a bug. Most of all, he sees that HE is still around, despite an American military that could have finished him off 12 years ago. Most importantly, he sees the son of the man who wasn't man enough (in his tribal mind) to finish him off, and probably concludes he isn't man enough, either.
What's the point of this? The point is, I believe, despite all the talk about how a "cornered" Saddam with "nothing to lose" will use chem/bio and start the oil fields ablaze--I DON'T BELIEVE HE FEELS HE IS CORNERED. I think he feels he can survive this intact, France will stop us, we'll lose our nerve, we'll corner him like the Israeli's cornered Arafat, but let him off, or whatever. I don't think he will be desperate until the JDAM's or the CIA/Mossad hit team comes in thru the bedroom window. I think there's a good chance it goes very smoothly.
But, hey, Jaloti, you said 50-60%, what about . . . Sure, I can always be wrong. I say 20-30% messy war with some ineffectual chem/bio in theater, and 10-30% chance of a real wild card. Wild cards I can dream up include chem/bio in theater that kills hundreds-thousands, chem-bio in Israel, serious terror, maybe even chem/bio in this country, and a small(1-2%) chance of something REALLY weird, like French or Russian paratroopers in Baghdad (remember the airport in Kosovo?).
What about the market? If the war goes well, the rally could really get going. Maybe it will even be an up year. But it has to start in the short term.
Big green in the futures and Europe. (Of course we were big red this time yesterday.) Richard Russell made a big deal yesterday of the non-confirmation of the Transports low by the Dow, prior to this run-up. Sure, I'm name dropping. But because of the recent strength, the Naz running up above its 200-day, Dow/SP threatening the 50d, the war, and the possibility that maybe we're just due for a crazy counter-trend rally, I , Harry Jaloti, think it may be time to buy, with a tight stop of course.

[HarryKnutszacke]

comments?

[hellinahandcart]

Yeah, was the screen name "Harry Paratestes" already taken when you signed up?

[jackbob]

I predict about a 50%-60% chance that the war goes very well--short, clean, no chem/bio, no oil well fires.

This is exactly how I see it, except I say 75-85% likelyhood. I don't disagree with your paradoxical reasons, but believe what is more significant is our technological advances, new air mobile infantry tactics, and the experience we gained in Somalia. Adjust the percents, and I pretty much agree with everything else you wrote, except I think Saddam will not be using any NBC weapons, as I do not believe him to be quite that crazy and I doubt he has any that are ready for use.