Posted on 03/15/2003 2:22:03 PM PST by freedom44
The impact on Iran of the war next door should seem obvious. When this war is over, regardless of its outcome, the entire region will be faced with a new set of rules, circumstances and scenarios. For the Iranian people who have not forgotten the misery of their 8-year long war with Iraq, there is obviously little sympathy for Saddam as an aggressive neighbor. But since there is very little in common between the Iranian people and the regime, therefore, the sharp difference of opinion between the two regarding the war and its outcome should come as no surprise to anyone.
In a recent poll conducted in Iran and reported by usually reliable sources, three-quarters of the Iranian public opinion are supportive of President Bush and his plans for Iraq. Mr. Nima Rashedan, an Iranian journalist and commentator reports in his dedicated column (www.gooya.com) that the public in Iran is more supportive of and eager about the start of the war than people in Washington, D.C. or in Tel Aviv! According to this article (reproduced in today’s Persian edition of Iran-va-Jahan) the main reason for the astonishingly low level of participation in the recent municipal elections in Iran is somehow connected to the fall of the Talibans in Afghanistan and now the impending possible fall of Saddam in Iraq. In other words, the people in Iran are anticipating the fall of the regime in Tehran as continuation of the ‘domino’ that has begun in Kabul! Therefore, why bother to vote one way or the other, since both the hardliners and the so-called ‘reformers’ are on their way out.
The Islamic regime, on the other hand, has manifested total confusion in its policy regarding Iraq and the expected war. While publicly, at the UN, the Conference of the Islamic States and the meeting of the Non-Aligned nations, the IRI government has taken side with the opponents of the war, such as the French and the Russians, it is surreptitiously providing material and moral support to both the Iraqi government and the Iraqi opposition! Last month Tehran hosted a meeting of the Iraqi opposition and allowed them safe passage through Iran to a meeting held inside Iraq in the region under Kurdish control. Soon after that it welcomed the Iraqi Foreign Minister to Tehran for some undisclosed discussions. It has been a known fact for some time that a major part of Saddam Hussein’s clandestine smuggling operation is routed through Iran with the tacit support of the ruling clergy. This lack of a clear policy, based on the true Iranian national interests, in this crucial period, is another manifestation of regime’s total incompetence. Iraq owes hundreds of billions of dollars in war reparations to Iran. Any responsible government would be taking advantage of the present opportunity for advancing Iran’s legitimate claims.
No one can predict the outcome of any war. Sir Winston Churchill is credited with having said that the only predictable fact about the outcome of any war is its unpredictability! But still one can speculate with ample care and attention. In this respect, if the so-called ‘Alliance of the willing’ is successful and Iraqis are liberated following a short war with a minimum of ‘collateral damage’ and civilian casualties, the post-war reconstruction becomes a much easier task. It’s really the post-war political reconstruction of the Iraqi society, which will have vast political ramifications and consequence in the region.
The optimist point to the post-war Japanese and German democracies as vestiges of previous American military occupations. The pessimists, on the other hand, remind us of America’s failure during the most recent times in Vietnam, Lebanon, Haiti, and Somalia while ignoring the relative successes of recent military interventions in Granada and Panama. In this analysis I do not wish to enter into legal and moral aspects of this debate, which is very important, but lies beyond the scope of our present discussion. The fact remains that the stated goals of the United States foreign policy for the region are in accordance with the national interests of the people in this region. Ridding the region of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), of terrorism and of dictatorships are hardly goals that one can disagree with. The fact that they are not easily obtainable is a poor excuse for not trying. The implications of this stated policy for different countries in the region are not the same.
There are many important differences between the current circumstance in the Iraqi situation and the case in Iran. For one thing, in spite of its undisputed participation in international terrorism and documented flagrant violation of human rights, and having been placed on the ‘Axis of Evil’ by President Bush, the IRI does not have a 12-year record of violating Security Council resolutions. Therefore, it is not conceivable to imagine, at this time, any UN backed military campaign against the Islamic regime in Iran. Therefore, we must look at the prospects of change in Iran as fundamentally different from what has transpired in Afghanistan and is being realized in Iraq. The struggle for the establishment of democracy in Iran is at least one hundred years old. The size of the country, its population and its level of previous-modernization are not comparable with Afghanistan, Iraq or any other country in the region.
The ultimate change in Iran, while being expedited by the events in the neighboring countries, is currently evolving from within the Iranian society. It will be, one hopes, non-violent, genuine and founded on true Iranian national aspirations for democracy and freedom. Any foreign intervention in this natural process, overt or covert, will further complicate and defeat the ultimate purpose: the long cherished goal of national self-determination through a freely exercised democratic choice. As witnessed during the recent elections, the vast majority of Iranians will no longer settle for window-dressing approaches of Mr. Khatami and his European supporters. They are ready for and are demanding real democracy and the right to exercise their own free vote for choosing their future.
In a recent poll conducted in Iran and reported by usually reliable sources, three-quarters of the Iranian public opinion are supportive of President Bush and his plans for Iraq.
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