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Well, not precisely. I don't revel in pessimism just for the sheer joy of it. Historical market behavior evidences that a secular bear market floor is reached under three general circumstances, which in this case coordinate to strongly suggest that the post-Nineties floor has not been reached.

1) A post-bubble market retraces approximately five years of market gains prior to the preceding peak of the market bubble. Since the S&P 500 peaked in mid-January 2000, the target floor would be in the vicinity of mid-January 1995 levels: approximately 465 on the S&P (800 - Nasdaq; 3930 - Dow).

2) Historical bear market floors have arrived when the average P/E ratio reaches a trough between 7-12, with most near the lower end of the threshold (iirc, the 1966 trough was the only one at the upper end). Granted, this does not guarantee an inflection point, since a P/E average of 7 or 9 in 1931 was followed by nearly two more years of share price declines.

3) A classic capitulation manifests after a series of so-called 90-90 days: "when downside volume equals 90 percent or more of the sum of upside volume plus downside volume, and points lost equal 90 percent or more of the sum of points gained and points lost." I believe we've only had three of those, post-bubble, interspersed over several years time.

In the absence of these indicative factors, the market remains far too overvalued and undersold by historical standards to permit anything resembling a bull market cycle to take wings. Until something resembling these conditions prevails over the markets, then one should reasonably assume that any upward movement reflects a secular bear market countertrend rally and nothing more.