U.S. Drops Its Bid to Base Troops in Turkey

Los Angeles Times ^ | March 15, 2003 | Richard Boudreaux and John Hendren

[AMNZ]

We didn't need to go on Turkey dirt. They don't need to go on Iraqi dirt. Keep Out!

[Always A Marine]

Everything I have seen claimed that in return for the land passage the US was offering:
1. $ Aid, and
2. A promise not to establish an independent Kurdistan, and not to leave heavy weapons with the Kurds.

You are correct. The $ Aid offer was real, concrete and immediate. However, Washington's promise not to establish an independent Kurdistan has to be taken a bit more cautiously. Future US administrations might find such a promise objectionable or inconvenient, while the Turks now see an alternate opportunity to shape their own destiny. The stakes for us are merely tactical, but for Ankara this is a strategic reshaping of its border with the bulk of the Muslim world. If I were them, I wouldn't buy the promise if I had a choice.

[Always A Marine]

Turkey should not pit themselves against the kurds of Northern Iraq, when their actions only make more friction likely. They should keep their troops out of northern Iraq entirely. No danger will come to Turkey if they stay on their own borders.

Hmmmmm... The exact same argument can be made against the United States. But we aren't buying it, and neither are the Turks. It is on their border, after all.

[The Wizard]

and no money, either

[Always A Marine]

We would be fools to let the Turks grab the northern oil fields. We will simply take them from a different direction, and the Turks will be faced with a fait accompli. They might have larger forces in the area than we do, but I trust they are not stupid enough to attack the U.S. forces who are already in Northern Iraq.

Ah, but Ankara might place the shoe on the other foot. If the Turks are first to take the northern Iraqi oil fields in force, the fait accompli might be left to Washington. Would we attack our sole Muslim ally and NATO partner to force them out? Turkey holds a very interesting hand in this game.

[bert]

...I cannot fault Turkey for seeking its own self-interest....

Your sentences correctly state the situation.

Once Disarmed, Iraq is no threat to the USA and the new reality must be acceptable to the neighbors. An enlarged turkey may well be the best solution. Kurds together within a Turkish democracy may well be better than Kurds flailing within a failed democratic state unable to survive on its own.