Replies

That scenario makes no sense, for a number of reasons.

First of all, there is no discernible motivation for the Turks to mount an assault of Baghdad, thereby assuming the political and military consequences & casualties.

Secondly, they would risk an explosive outburst of domestic anger from a Turkish population both intensely hostile to & completely unprepared for such a deployment.

Third (and closely related), Turkey would be furiously vilified in the Arab world - which already views them with extreme prejudice - and therefore become a target of terrorist organizations for probably a generation.

Fourth, and quite importantly, the Turkish military (while admirable in regional comparisons) is notably inferior to an American force. The element of potential surprise would get more than outbalanced by the reduced effectiveness of the invasion force.

Fifth, this would practically guarantee exactly that scenario most feared in northern Iraq: a chaotic conflict between Turkish military forces, Kurdish insurgents, Iranian backed Shi'ites, and Iraqi Sunni radicals.

Sixth, one need only take a quick trip down to Fort Hood in Texas to see that the 4th Infantry has not been deployed anywhere - which includes a backup deployment for a hypothetical Turkish invasion of Iraq.

Finally, there's little reason to believe that the Iraqi military would assume a tactical stance much different than the present whether or not a surprise Turkish invasion force were in the cards. Indeed, I think there's a general expectation of both a limited Turkish intervention and a northern front opened by airborne American forces.

I suppose there's an outside chance for the oft-speculated Turkish based surprise northern front scenario, but I'd find myself rather surprised if that proves the case. I personally don't think this would be the wisest course - for the various reasons outlined above - but I suppose we'll find out soon enough.

I'm a person of few words and sometimes type that way. My point was that the "Turkish" thing is being over emphasized. The Turks have 50k troops at the border. They can head south and a lite US force can come behind them and secure the area so the Kurds would be protected from the Turks. The Turks would have a North/South lifeline and the US would be a buffer to the Kurds to the East. A mutual "stand-off" if you will.