Posted on 03/12/2003 10:42:54 PM PST by pkpjamestown
Greek Cypriots will now have a free hand to become EU members and block even the proposed accession talks for Turkey.
The Turkish and Turkish Cypriot hardliners have won a "victory" with the collapse of the United Nations effort to find a solution to the Cyprus problem...
Turkish Cypriot President Rauf Denktas, with the blessing of the hardliners in Ankara, has rejected to hold a national referendum among Turkish Cypriots on a plan prepared by U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan.
Annan has announced the failure of the Cyprus talks held at the Hague and he also said he is withdrawing as a peacemaker.
So now the Turkish Cypriots and their Greek counterparts will be left on their own to negotiate an agreement.
Optimists say there is still a possibility for the two sides reaching a solution on their own but we feel realistically speaking the current situation will only serve to strengthen the hands of the Greek Cypriots who will now be in a position to demand many more concessions than those specified in the U.N. plan and will not be ready to compromise so easily. The world public opinion will once again declare the Turkish Cypriots the villains and the Greek Cypriots the deprived...
The Greek Cypriots have nothing to lose. Yes, their people will not return to the north and they will be restricted to live in the narrow confines of southern Cyprus but they will enter the European Union and will benefit from this while the Turkish Cypriots will be left out of the equation.
So what does all this mean to Turkey?
Optimists say we will have to reach a deal with the Greek Cypriots by the end of 2004 when the EU is scheduled to decide to start accession talks for Turkey. But those who know better are aware that the Greek Cypriots will demand new and much tougher concessions than those mentioned in the current U.N. plan which was rejected by Denktas. So the chances of a compromise seem remote even if new Turkish leaders takeover in northern Cyprus and want a solution in earnest...
So in the end the Greek Cypriots would simply veto EU plans to start accession talks and that would be the end of our EU adventure. Some may see this argument as too simplistic but it is not. With the current situation Denktas may have used the hardliners in Ankara to shoot down a solution that he sincerely believes is against the interests of his people but he has also created a situation where he the Greek Cypriots no longer feel obliged to make concessions or reach a compromise.
In the process he has closed the doors for Turkey's EU membership...
Now the Turkish Cypriots will continue to rely on Turkey's handouts. The Turkish Cypriot people who rallied in the streets demanding a solution and acceptance of the U.N. plan will make life hell for Denktas and the government and probably force elections.
If the Turkish Cypriots manage to win some international recognition they may strengthen their position and force some concessions out of the Greek Cypriots but without that we see gloom for the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.
Better for the EU, you mean!
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