[boris]

"Indeed, the space shuttle program was supposed to be phased out years ago, but the search for its replacement has been halted, largely because space contractors enjoy collecting on the overpriced shuttle without the expense and bother of researching cheaper alternatives."

Actually the reason is the "McNamara Syndrome." McNamara--the Whiz Kid--had an insight: paper studies were much cheaper than hardware. "Run along and do another study; don't bother me about building anything."

We in the evil contractor community have--at NASA's behest, had--oh, maybe a half-dozen "major" studies for replacing the shuttle. The best part was the acronyms: NLS (National Launch System), ALS (Advanced Launch System), NGLS (Next Generation Launch System), etc. Right now it is OSP (Orbital Space Plane); right after this study is completed we will get another acronym and another few million dollars to study it to death some more. There were also gigantic (but cheap) studies on Space Tugs, which morphed into Orbital Transfer Vehicles, which wasted away to nothing.

Remember: compared to hardware (with testing, facilities and actual stuff being purchased) such studies are fabulously cheap.

So are science-fiction novels, which can be had for much less, although rarely supported by detailed calculations, tables, charts and graphs.

So blame Wiley E. Coyote (McNamara), Super Genius, for his great "insight" that military and space systems could be very cheap--if never actually built.

--Boris

[Truth29]

Just to reemphasize a couple of points from this discussion and other threads; the huge upfront costs and limited profit opportunities in space exploration make it very unlikely that the private sector will ever develop significant manned space capabilities. Also, if the shuttle progam is shut down,it is very likely that available funds will be sucked up by social and entitlement programs in the US and some other nation (China?) will take the lead in future space efforts IMHO.