China on Iraq: Wary of U.S. Military Action - but Not in the Mood to Veto

BEIJING (AP) - Emboldened by Russian and French opposition, China is assuming a more vocal stance against the idea of American military action over Iraqi disarmament. But it's probably not about to veto the U.S.-sponsored U.N. resolution paving the way for war. A veto could badly damage relations with the Washington, Beijing's biggest trading partner, but with two of the other five veto-wielding permanent members of the U.N. Security Council - France and Russia - also opposed, Beijing probably wouldn't have to use its veto.

"If they just take an abstention, that would at least put them not in the front line," said Sin-ming Shaw, a China specialist at Oxford University's St. Antony's College.

While China has given no direct clue as to how it will act, it has made its rejection of U.S. war plans increasingly pointed. Last week, it joined Russia in a statement saying U.N. weapons inspectors in Iraq have made progress and should be given more time.

"War can and should be avoided," Foreign Ministry spokesman Kong Quan said, echoing the wording of a joint statement issued during Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov's visit to Beijing.

However, Kong added, "Iraq should implement the U.N. resolutions strictly, fully and conscientiously. It should not possess weapons of mass destruction."

On Tuesday, China said it welcomes Iraq's destruction Monday of six more Al Samoud 2 missiles with ranges that exceeded a U.N.-imposed limit of 93 miles.

"We welcome and appreciate Iraqi cooperation with U.N. inspection teams," Kong said.

State media have sounded the anti-war message as well, more enthusiastically as the days pass.

"China has been making the utmost effort to avoid war," the official Xinhua News Agency quoted an unidentified Foreign Ministry official saying in an unusually lengthy interview released Monday. "War is no good for everybody."

Washington needs nine votes and no vetoes on the 15-member Security Council to pass its resolution, votes it doesn't appear to have yet. Mexico has indicated it may join the United States, Britain and Spain in backing the resolution. But France, Russia and Germany advocate a plan to continue weapons inspections in Iraq for four more months.

China describes its ties with Iraq as warm, and has long courted support among Arab nations. Yet Beijing hasn't been heavily involved in Middle East issues and has few abiding interests in the region other than feeding its growing economy a steady supply of oil.

China always craves stable ties with the United States, its largest trading partner. With Russia and some traditional U.S. allies already lining up against Washington, though, China may be able to get away with not actively supporting U.S. action.

"It would be very difficult for the U.S. to single China out for some sort of economic or diplomatic retaliation" for not supporting its stance, Shaw said.

There is also the issue of North Korea's nuclear program. Washington may not want to anger Beijing and risk losing its help in dealing with North Korea.

Though China appears unlikely to use its veto power, it does have real concerns about action against Iraq.

With about 60 percent of its oil coming from the Middle East, China's vast economy would be highly vulnerable to price fluctuations resulting from a disruption in supplies.

As a communist dictatorship with a history of internal repression, China would be apprehensive about any criteria for regime change. China, with its avowedly non-interventionist foreign policy, is particularly dubious about a pre-emptive strike without a direct provocation.

China forbids most public protests and there have been none of the large-scale anti-war marches seen in Europe, the United States and other countries around the world.

Still, public sentiment seems to be strongly against a war, fed by years of Chinese government propaganda that portrays the United States as a bully bent on world domination.

"We call on all Chinese at home and abroad who love peace and justice to unite and display the Chinese people's great tradition of opposing imperialism and hegemony," says one open letter opposing the war being circulated on the Internet.

Re: the second or eighteenth resolution, seeking to answer the question of whether the UN is still relevant.

I think the French will abstain-- they are not sure the UN is still relevant and they think France will remain relevant without the UN (poor decision). They would like to vote Yes at this point, but they are so far out on the limb that getting back to the trunk could cause the limb to break. So the French are cowering on the end of the limb, afraid to move.

Russia will vote for-- they want the UN to be relevant because Russia wants to be relevant. The US is so clearly right and the new Resolution so simple, they will not be able to say Nyet with a straight face.

Anyone who thinks this resolution is about Iraq, which has already mades their choice, is misinformed.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.