Estimating Iraq war cost impossible, Rumsfeld says

WASHINGTON - A possible war with Iraq has so many variables that estimating its cost is impossible, Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said after Democrats complained that the White House was not offering an estimate.

The surge of U.S. troops into the region around Iraq continued, meanwhile, as the Pentagon (news - web sites) on Thursday dispatched a sixth aircraft carrier and stealthy B-2 bombers to bolster forces already numbering more than 200,000.

Rumsfeld, speaking to reporters Thursday alongside Afghan President Hamid Karzai, said trying to come up with a cost for the range of Iraq war scenarios "simply isn't useful."

"If you don't know if it's going to last six days, six weeks or six months, how in the world are you going to come up with a cost estimate?" Rumsfeld said. "The people who tried to estimate those things for the (1991) Gulf War (news - web sites) were flat wrong by an enormous amount, and it makes no sense to try to do it."

On the diplomatic front, meanwhile, Secretary of State Colin Powell (news - web sites) urged Arab leaders who are planning to hold a summit meeting this weekend "to issue the strongest possible statement" to Saddam that he must comply with U.N. Security Council disarmament resolutions. Powell also said the Arab League meeting in Egypt might consider urging Saddam to "step down and get out of the way and let some responsible leadership take over in Baghdad."

Powell, speaking after a U.S.-European Union (news - web sites) ministerial meeting, said he believes the administration can present a "strong enough argument" to win votes for a new U.N. Security Council resolution authorizing force against Iraq if Saddam shows no indication he is complying with U.N. demands that he get rid of any nuclear, chemical or biological weapons.

Commerce Secretary Donald Evans, after stops in Bulgaria and Romania, was in Slovakia on Friday to shore up support among Europe's eastern newcomers after French President Jacques Chirac told them to "keep quiet" on their pro-Washington stance on Iraq.

"We're just making the point that it's not inconsistent to be a loyal member of the EU ... and also be a friend and ally of the United States," Evans said in a telephone interview as his plane touched down in Slovakia.

"They have a taste of freedom and they know how precious it is. Many of these countries were not living in freedom just a few years ago," he said.

Iraqi Foreign Minister Naji Sabri called Powell's proposal "one of the silly and trivial ideas involved in this dirty psychological warfare staged by the American administration."

President Bush (news - web sites) on Thursday spoke by telephone with Russian President Vladimir Putin (news - web sites) about Iraq and North Korea (news - web sites). Bush wants to make sure Russia won't veto a new U.S.-led resolution.

Speaking in Beijing early Friday, Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said his country was ready to veto such the U.S.-British resolution if such a step was needed to preserve "international stability."

A number of Democrats in Congress criticized the Bush administration this week for not providing any cost figures for a possible war in Iraq. Pentagon officials have said privately that a war and its immediate aftermath could cost between $60 billion and $100 billion.

"I think you are deliberately keeping us in the dark," Rep. James Moran (news, bio, voting record), D-Va., told Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz at a House hearing Thursday. "We are finding out far more from the newspapers than we are from you in testimony."

Wolfowitz and Rumsfeld also rejected an estimate from the Army's chief of staff that it would take hundreds of thousands of troops to keep the peace in postwar Iraq.

"The idea that it would take several hundred thousand U.S. forces is far from the mark," Rumsfeld said.

The Pentagon said the number of American troops now deployed to the Persian Gulf region and nearby areas stood at 225,000, which includes some 16,000 in and around Afghanistan (news - web sites) and the Horn of Africa pursuing the war against Osama bin Laden (news - web sites)'s terrorist network.

As part of that buildup, the Navy announced Thursday that the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz and its battle group would leave San Diego for the Gulf on March 3. The Nimitz is the sixth of America's 12 aircraft carriers to be sent to the region.

Also, Pentagon officials said B-2 stealth bombers have been ordered to move from their base in Missouri to overseas bases closer to Iraq: a base in Britain and a British base on the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia.

The troop movements "demonstrate the seriousness of purpose of the international community" to disarm Iraq, Rumsfeld said.

Bush, in an interview with USA Today for Friday editions, suggested that he viewed war as inevitable. "My attitude about Saddam Hussein (news - web sites) is that if he had any intention of disarming, he would have disarmed," the president said. "We will disarm him now." Nevertheless, Bush reiterated that war was his "last option."

I find this troubling. The unpredictability of war aside, as an aspiring actuary, I can tell you that estimates are always options. If there is a range of scenarios, than he should provide a range of estimates. This tells me that his estimates are quite large.

A possible war with Iraq has so many variables that estimating its cost is impossible, Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said after Democrats complained that the White House was not offering an estimate

When Iraq falls, so will OPEC. The benefit of cheaper crude to our economy can be staggering. We will no longer need to extend the billions in aid to the Saudis to maintain a base there, as we will have one in Iraq.

This may be the least expensive war financially we've ever fought.

The cost of freedom is never cheap. I find it interesting that, for the first time, Democrats in Congress are concerned about the cost of something. Actually, if the liberals were consistant they would want to spend as much as possible on the war. Spending has always been their religion.

If he gives these whiners a figure, they'll use it to beat him over the head. Rummy has done the numbers, but why should he make them public?

A good rough estimate is probably around $100 billion. We'll just have to take it out of the oil money. Naturally Rummy can't say that, either, or it will just spawn more "NO BLOOD FOR OIL" bumper stickers. In other words, the leftists will whine no matter what he says, so he says nothing. In a time of war, you are entitled to keep your secrets.

"If he gives these whiners a figure, they'll use it to beat him over the head. "

And six months later "they" are pretending he gave numbers, and pretending th0se numbers were wrong- and beating him over the head.

You gotta love our media- they know exactly how stupid their audience is.

there is no oil coming out of the country right now, the pipeline in the north will take 5 weeks to repair, and will likely be blown up again right afterwards. I don't know what is happening in the south. but the dream of plentiful oil from Iraq to crush OPEC is not going to happen.

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