Australian defence review predicts rising tide of terrorism

New Zealand Herald ^ | 27.02.2003 | By GREG ANSLEY Australia correspondent

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CANBERRA - Australia's latest strategic review, issued as its forces prepare for war in the Gulf, warns of a rising tide of terrorism, spurred by a wave of anti-Western anger and the belief the United States is leading a crusade against Islam.

Announcing plans for a new shift in military emphasis away from defence of the continent, the review also warns of the spread of weapons of mass destruction and potentially violent instability in Southeast Asia and the Pacific.

In a chilling assessment, it says the September 11 attacks on the US and the Bali bombings could spur terrorists to even greater carnage.

"The reality is that terrorism has gained a strategic advantage by turning the strengths of tolerant and open societies into weaknesses, and then striking at vulnerable points to devastating effect," it says.

"There remains a great risk that the mass casualties inflicted in recent attacks have set the terrorists' sights even higher, possibly including the acquisition and use of weapons of mass destruction."

The review supports the position adopted by Prime Minister John Howard, whose unflinching support for Washington has yet to convince the majority of Australians of the need for war against Iraq.

But it also underlines the risks Canberra faces in allying itself so closely to President George W. Bush's war against terror and Saddam Hussein.

It warns that poverty and economic malaise have reinforced animosity towards the West.

"In some Southeast Asian countries these economic factors combine with the misconception that the war on terror targets Muslims to produce defensive, nationalistic reactions," the review says.

This week Malaysian Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad warned that an attack on Iraq would be regarded by other Muslim nations as a war against Islam.

Canberra's response to the threat of terrorism will be to continue the build-up of special forces and counter-terrorism, biological and chemical warfare units, and to increase both the mobility of its Defence Force and its ability to work with the US.

"We believe the recent terrorist attacks are more than a transitory phenomenon and are likely to last for years," Defence Minister Senator Robert Hill said.

"These terrorists are strategically focused with the objective of rolling back Western values, engagement and influence, and to weaken and ultimately supplant moderate Islamic governments.

"We assess that Australia has been identified as a target."

Although placing greater emphasis on special forces, the war against terrorism and local crises such as East Timor, Canberra will press ahead with the A$13 billion already committed to new weaponry.

Hill also said plans to buy new destroyers and American fighters - seen as critical to the US alliance that underpins Australia's security policy - would not be affected.

But with the threat of a direct military attack on Australia now lower than at any time since the end of the Cold War, Canberra believes its forces must be equipped to deal with increasing demands for help in distant coalitions or for crises closer to home.

For many of these commitments, the need would be for "niche" forces such as the SAS units sent to Afghanistan, or the relatively small deployment of FA-18 fighters, troops and warships to the Gulf.

Canberra is also concerned the potential for conflict over Taiwan and on the Korean Peninsula, and at instability in Southeast Asia and the Pacific, including Papua New Guinea, the Solomons, Fiji and Vanuatu.

"Southeast Asia and the South Pacific face major challenges due to political weakness, decline in governance, difficulty in grappling with terrorism and the economic effects of terrorism, the review says.

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Australia has known for a long time the threat posed by their Northern neighbour and the 218 million muslims who live there. Perhaps some of the US troops in Europe would prefer to relocate to Australia rather than Germany? Australia would be hard pressed if attacked by Indonesia, and the US troops would have a better lifestyle.

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**"The reality is that terrorism has gained a strategic advantage by turning the strengths of tolerant and open societies into weaknesses, and then striking at vulnerable points to devastating effect," it says.**


This is an astute observation. It's also interesting to me to hear about the concern that more cooperation and alliance with the US will lead to more terrorism. Perhaps. Ultimately though, if Western countries don't stick together on this, the terrorism will flourish regardless.

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if Western countries don't stick together on this, the terrorism will flourish regardless.

Western countries are not sticking together now! The terrorists don’t even need to divide, just conquer.