Well, you seem to assume that it will succeed.
But if you read my posts carefully, my thinking that the effort is a waste is based not on the assumption that it won't succeed, but that my belief that even if it succeeds (not only in getting on the ballot, but in actually recalling Davis) it probably won't accomplish much, and may actually hurt. (You seem to interpret success as just getting on the ballot. That's too narrow. Success is replacing Davis with a governor who will have substantially different policies and be able to carry them through a very hostile Democrat assembly). Here are the possible results as I see it:
Step 1. Get on ballot. $1 million, lots of time and energy by grassroots. If failure, Davis stronger than ever. If success, step 2.
Step 2. Recall campaign. $__ million, lots of time and energy by grassroots. If failure, Davis stronger than ever. If success, go to 3.
Step 3, Result A. $__ million, lots of time and energy. Davis replaced with Democrat, probably with similar views. No change in state policies, state no better off. Democrats strengthened by eviction of unpopular incumbent. Steam let off in the electorate; Democrats strengthened heading into 2004 and 2006; or...
Result B1, Davis replaced with Republican, facing hostile legislature, huge problems. Takes blame for unpopular tax hikes or spending cuts, which may or may not get through legislature. State maybe or maybe not better off, depending on what gets through legislature. Dems in legislature better off, blaming GOP governor; Dems stronger for 2004 Senate/2006 Asssembly, leading to longer term Dem control, bad for state; or ...
Result B2, Davis replaced with Republican who is hugely successful in restoring state's economy; state better off; maybe GOP reaps benefits, sweeps to victory in 2004 and 2006.
Result B2 is the only one that's worth it, and it's probably least likely.
Look, I don't want bad things for California just so we can elect more Republicans (Conservatives, really) down the road (in fact, if Davis survives this, I'll be rooting for him to get out of his mess, because that will be good for California), but you've also got to be realistic about what will cause meaningful change.
The problem with your argument is that it is a trailing indicator... you are buying into the pessimistic notion of "when things are bad they will only get worse"
I would argue that if a Republican took over from Davis (thus preventing further problems) that they would find themselves much in the same situation as Bill Clinton did when he took office... that being that things had been so bad and bottomed out that they could only rebound from where they were.
Let me modify that to note that there would certainly be at least a rough beginning - the tough decisions time. But fortunately the historic event of this being the first recall election to ever qualify for the ballot (and yes, I am assuming it does) it will provide a brief honeymoon.
And why do I think a GOPer will win? Because if this recall qualifies somewhat quickly then the law dictates the election be a special election (it will be outside of the window for it being placed on the next regularly scheduled election - the March primary - and thus by law a special election must be called by the Lt. Governor).
WHO do you think will turn out to vote? WHO do you think will head out to save Davis' @ss? Even those who disagree with the recall but don't like Davis will more often STAY HOME then go turn out and vote NO on the recall to save a man they do not like.
Were you aware of the special election aspect of this? If not then I think you should reconsider your scenarios. If you were then I cannot see why you would assume it more likely for a GOPer *NOT* to win?