GM says fuel cell cars will be ready by 2010

I'll make a prediction. Fuel cells won't get more than 1% of the future auto market. Oil burning cars will last 50-100 years as the dominant transportation system. There are two big lies I've heard now since I was a kid in the late 70's.. "We'll run out of oil" is the big one.

You are correct. We likely have 50 years of not-too-expensive oil. we have plenty of oil in Alaska and off-shore california, which we will never drill for, it seems.

If we pursue nuclear energy, hybrid cars, and use natural gas for transport (and stop using Nat gas for electric generation), our oil could indeed last 100+ years. If non-oil cars take over, the oil will become irrelevent.

As far as having leftover carbon if hydrocarbon is used as the feed stock, is this not true of crude oil too? Only a small portion of the crude is made into gasoline, diesel or other light fuels, .. misleading comment at best, it really *is* different ... most of the energy in a barrel of crude goes to useful oil grades. but the method used to create hydrogen - methane reformation - takes already processed natural gas and in an expensive and energy inefficient way converts it into hydrogen. This is the LEAST expensive method - hydrolysis etc., costs more.

It is more efficient to take natural gas and use it in an efficient ICE car, than to convert it to hydrogen for a fuel cell car.

Fuel cells have the additional advantage of being a non-thermodynamic process, and not subject to the same "rules", so the higher effeciencies are *theoretically* possible. dont imply that thermodynamics is repealed. The PEM cell efficiencies have limits too, around 50%, based on the voltage gaps and current flow - decent current flow forces lower efficiency.

whatever theoretic efficiencies, the REAL fuel efficiencies of fuel cell cars is not better than the best hybrid technology (~40% engine+ drivetrain efficiency). Car cost differentials FAR OUTWEIGH the minor cost differentials of different fuel efficiencies.

I saw people refueling a hydrogen car on the news last evening. It looked just like I expected. Having experience with quick disconnect hoses over the years and servicing aircraft LOX bottles, it wouldn't be too much of a problem for me to use. Those who aren't mechanically inclined will hopefully get the process down over time. That is until the fittings on the pump and car start to wear, get dented, and dinged a bit due to use and abuse. Then we'll have loads of fun.

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