Mansoor Ijaz: Al Qaeda's Nightmare Scenario Emerges

The Weekly Standard ^ | 02/19/03 | Mansoor Ijaz

[Pokey78]

Does Osama bin Laden plan to become the ultimate suicide bomber?

OSAMA BIN LADEN, or some good likeness of him, spoke from the ether again on two occasions last week, releasing two undated audiotapes as Muslims completed their pilgrimages to Mecca. His call to Jihad did not stop at tying himself to Iraq's people, by which he had clearly hoped to provoke Washington into immediate unilateral military action against Saddam Hussein. Nor did it end with his messianic recitation of verses in the Koran that clearly demonstrated he knows the end game is near. Predicting his martyrdom this year, he vowed to die in "the belly of the Eagle," an Islamist reference to ending his life in a final act of terror against the United States on our soil. The man, put simply, is on the run.

Bin Laden's cowardice shines through his rhetoric. For the first time since the September 11 attacks against the United States, bin Laden demonstrated fear through his choice of words. In setting forth plans for his suicide, he probably came to the conclusion that al Qaeda's retaliation infrastructure around the world had been so effectively and systematically dismantled by western intelligence that his terrorists may not be able to mount a credible response to any planned U.S. military action in Iraq in the near future. Like many Mafia bosses before him, he appears to have decided that when the going looks tough--the poison network in Europe, for example, has been decimated by defections and confessions--it's better to exit stage left.

While bin Laden's vision of dividing the West and driving a wedge between the United States and her allies, whether Arab or European, has become a political reality, his terrorist acts have not yet reached their intended crescendo--to use a weapon of mass destruction against civilians. That is why bin Laden spoke and why we need to quickly and effectively decipher what he is really trying to tell us.

A plethora of available but seemingly unconnected evidence provides important clues for what may be bin Laden's final act. To understand the data, we must be imaginative and accept that al Qaeda's highest military objective is the economic paralysis of the West--killing us softly, to quote Roberta Flack. Hardcore acts of terrorism against civilian targets that cause mass casualties are certainly a part of the al Qaeda Jihad thesis, but these acts are designed more for recruitment than long-term debilitating impact.

Constructing the Tools of Armageddon

AL QAEDA has explosives expertise that is unsurpassed in non-military circles. It gets military-grade C4 charges from China and Iran; it employs Hezbollah and Hamas guerillas trained in the fine arts of detonation devices (witness particularly the maritime attacks against the USS Cole and the French oil tanker); and it has brainwashed legions of men who are willing to die for the cause.

What's missing? Plutonium, and the scientific expertise to build a crude but highly explosive nuclear bomb. (Plutonium is more easily transported without detection and offers a bigger bang for the buck than typical enriched uranium devices.)

Who's supplying the material and expertise? North Korea, and, surprisingly, our ally in the war against al Qaeda, Pakistan. Pyongyang--with a lot of help from China (which is supplying key chemicals to separate plutonium from depleted uranium) and Pakistan (which gave North Korea its uranium enrichment centrifuges and tutored its nuclear scientists)--will be able to churn out Coke cans of plutonium at the rate of one per week by the end of March.

According to my intelligence sources in the Far East, the outlying renegade provinces of Indonesia (Aceh, for example) and the Philippines (where al Qaeda affiliate Abu Sayyaf rules) are infested with senior al Qaeda leaders. Each one is financially empowered to purchase North Korea's plutonium the moment it is reprocessed. Ayman Zawahiri, al Qaeda's number two, was reportedly in Indonesia last September, a month before the Bali bomb blast that killed 200 mostly Australian tourists. He could easily be there again.

We also know from published--and so far undisputed--reports that from February 2000 until July 2002, eight senior Pakistani nuclear scientists left their country without obtaining the required No Objection Certificates needed for travel abroad. They remain unaccounted for and at least some are reported to have traveled to Australia and Indonesia.

In a worst case scenario, al Qaeda could construct a crude but effective nuclear device in weeks, if not a month, from Hezbollah C4, North Korean plutonium, and a little nuclear expertise from disaffected Pakistani scientists. Making a "dirty" radiological dispersion device with Strontium or Cesium also remains an option, although it is clear that al Qaeda has the intent and resources to go for weapons that cause maximum collateral damage.

Add to this troubling possibility the fact that the terror group has resorted to the use of seafaring vessels to move its people around, and now has a fleet large and diverse enough that one or two could seamlessly move into a large harbor or congested waterway undetected, and a picture emerges of an unparalleled potential threat to the global economy from the paralysis that could be caused by a crude plutonium bomb exploding in the belly of an al Qaeda ship with bin Laden onboard.

The Targets

THE EASIEST TARGETS today for such an al Qaeda plot are Singapore harbor--the world's second largest seaport and the gateway to and from all trade done in the Far East--and the mouth of the Persian Gulf, which if irradiated could disrupt the normal flow of reasonably priced oil for half a century, no matter how much oil Alaska, Russia and Venezuela produce. There have been reports that easily accessed Australian ports, possibly even Sydney harbor, might be the target of an al-Qaeda dirty bomb plot. There are other potential targets with more symbolic value: the Panama Canal, to demonstrate al Qaeda can hit us again in our hemisphere; the Suez Canal, to hurt what bin Laden perceives as the traitorous Arab governments of Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia simultaneously; and the Straits of Gibraltar, where al Qaeda cells in Morocco tried to launch an attack last year.

But the target closest to bin Laden's heart likely remains a seaport that would allow him to go to his Allah in the belly of the Eagle--perhaps on the western seaboard of the United States. One thing is sure: Bin Laden's ego and ethos will compel him to go out in a blaze of glory that will secure the recruitment of his legions for decades to come and enshrine him as one of history's most evil beings.

America has a moral responsibility to the rest of the world to get on with the onerous task of dismantling and destroying those who enable al Qaeda's evil designs. To delay or fail in this task is to watch the destruction of humanity, bit by bit, by men who never understood God or His teachings, and with whom we can never achieve peaceful co-existence.

Mansoor Ijaz, chairman of Crescent Investment Management in New York, negotiated Sudan's counterterrorism offer of data on al Qaeda, Osama bin Laden, and other terrorist groups to the Clinton administration in 1997. He also worked closely with Mujahedeen and Islamist leaders in Pakistan to enact the July 2000 cease-fire in Kashmir between Muslim separatists and India's security forces.

[Poincare]

When I first heard "the belly of the Eagle" I thought of Philadelphia by way of sailing up the Delaware. But your post reminded me that he has an unfinished task in D.C.

[McGavin999]

China is playing a very, very foolish game here by not containing NK. Their economy is almost entirely dependent on exports. If something like this happens China will be far more crippled than the US.

[El Gato]

I hope that our Alamo is barrier protected against the simple tanker truck suicide crashes

See for yourself at the Alamo Cam. I haven't been down in Alamo Plaza itself since the "Get out of Chenny's House" rally/protest days. Maybe I'll drop by on Thursday, when I have to go downtown for a doctor's appointment.

[nutmeg]

I ALWAYS pause to listen to Mansoor when he's on Fox. He's always up-to-date with his material, he knows what he's talking about and he doesn't get carried away with himself. I respect his opinions.

Same here. I stop what I'm doing, and the TV volume goes UP.

[GVnana]

America has a moral responsibility to the rest of the world to get on with the onerous task of dismantling and destroying those who enable al Qaeda's evil designs. To delay or fail in this task is to watch the destruction of humanity, bit by bit, by men who never understood God or His teachings, and with whom we can never achieve peaceful co-existence.

Ijaz has tremendous insight, and we are lucky to have him.

[nutmeg]

ping!

Please FReepmail me if you want on or off my infrequent ping list.

[Sabertooth]

 
Eclipses during Ramadan
by David L. McNaughton
In "Hamdard Islamicus" (Karachi, Pakistan), vol. XIX no. 1 (Spring 1996): pp. 81-86.

Double Eclipses during Ramadan

Sometimes a Ramadan will contain a solar and a lunar eclipse. That inevitably provokes comment, because of traditions that such a "double-eclipse" is a portent for some unusual event. Ithna'asheri Shi'ites, for example, believe that their Twelfth Imam will reappear after a Ramadan double-eclipse (although those two phenomena will supposedly take place in reverse order, with the solar one occurring in mid-month (5); that will require the moon to suddenly double its speed of movement after the onset of the Holy Month!)

In March/April 1894 (Ramadan 1311), Mirza Ghulam Ahmad (founder of the Ahmadiyya or Qadiani movement in Pakistan) interpreted a double-eclipse as a sign that he was a genuine modern-day prophet (6). The lunar eclipse during that particular month was only partial, although the solar one two weeks later was total in a few places in eastern Asia (7). However, there was nothing at all extraordinary about those two eclipses: every 22 or 23 Islamic years there is at least one Ramadan featuring a pair of eclipses two weeks apart (8) - one of which is usually partial; see Table 1.

Very much rarer is a Ramadan containing two total eclipses.

Table 2 lists all such occasions since AH 1, as well as during the next 200 years (9); (its solar eclipses are all central, with annular ones also included).

It will be interesting to see whether the two total eclipses scheduled to occur during Ramadan 1424 (AD November 2003) - are cited to support a claim similar to that made by Mirza Ghulam Ahmad, or as proof of thesignificance of some extraordinary event.

< -snip- >

Table 2

Ramadans with two central eclipses

LUNAR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . SOLAR

AH . . AD . . . . . . . . . . Date . . . Where visible . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Date . . .Where visible

.283 . .896 . . . . . . . ..29 Oct . . .Pacific & adjacent . . . . . . . . . . 12 Nov . Canada; Alaska;
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .(25 Oct) . . landmasses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .(8 Nov) . NE Pacific

.305 . .918 . . . . . . . . .5 Mar . . Eurasia; . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Mar . .Antarctic; south
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (28 Feb) .NE Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (15 Mar) . .Indian Ocean

.462 . 1070 . . . . . . . . .2 Jul . . .Pacific & adjacent . . . . . . . . . . . .16 Jul . . .Arctic; Siberia
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .(26 Jun) . .landmasses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .(10 Jul)

.529 . 1135 . . . . . . . . . 4 Jul . . .America; Pacific; . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Jul . . .Antarctic; far
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (27 Jun) . New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . . . . .(12 Jul) . . .south Pacific

.596 . 1200 . . . . . . . . . 5 Jul . . . Pacific & adjacent . . . . . . . . . . *19 Jul . Siberia; Arctic;
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (28 Jun) . .landmasses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (12 Jul) . . NW Atlantic

1200 . 1786 . . . . . . . . .11 Jul . . . Pacific & adjacent . . . . . . . . . . 25 Jul . . South Africa &
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . landmasses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . adjacent oceans

1424 .2003. . . . . . . . .9 Nov. . .Europe; SW Asia; . . . . . . . . . .23 Nov . Antarctic; south
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Africa; America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Indian Ocean

1580 . 2155 . . . . . . . . .9 Mar . . Europe; Africa; . . . . . . . . . . . . .*2 Apr . .China; Russia;
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Kashmir; Mongolia;
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .Afghanistan

Notes for Table 2

Central lunar eclipses are always total.

*The central solar eclipses listed above are total unless asterisked - in which case they are annular.

Dates apply to the instant of maximum eclipse.

Extrapolated Gregorian dates are given even on occasions when the old Julian calendar was in operation;
the corresponding Julian date is then shown below in brackets.

A Google search on ramadan mahdi eclipse yielded 133 results.

A Google search on ramadan mehdi eclipse (alternate "mahdi" spelling) yielded 58 results.

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[Norman Arbuthnot]

When I first heard "the belly of the Eagle" I thought of Philadelphia by way of sailing up the Delaware. But your post reminded me that he has an unfinished task in D.C.

Well, if UBL uses a freighter enter the U.S. then D.C. will be spared because it is not a deep water port. Any number of other ports are possible, including NYC, Philly, SF, etc. Then again, you have to wonder what exactly he means by "the belly". He might have himself planted inside an 18 wheeler, along with a dirty bomb, and show up in D.C., Chicago or Dallas. I could also see him making one final video via mini cam. He might arrange to have Al Jazeera pick up a live feed 10 minutes before he detonates.

[Carry_Okie]

Where's Sir Laurence Olivier when you need him?

[Quix]

What is really so difficult about such scenarios?

1) Once one understands BEN LADEN's psychology even fractionally;

2) Once one considers the well linked terrorist groups WITH Iraq; WITH Pakistan; WITH North Korea; WITH Lybia; WITH fellow terrorists in Indonesia, Philipines and a host of other troublesome places; WITH renegade Russian gangsters and XXXXISTAN former Soviet republics; WITH satanic help; WITH Iran's help . . . .

3) The wonder is that he hasn't set off such bombs before this. Add in North Korea's eagerness to produce and sell such materials ASAP, we should have likely started bombing Baghdad long ago. We ought at least not delay too long for silly reasons.

4) I suspect there are half a dozen scenarios that could be imagined from plausible and even solid viable evidence. It doesn't take a rocket scientist. Why has such a conclusion been so hard to come to even for "experts" true and imagined hereon?

5) Are so many of us reallllllllllllllly that wedded to such depths of DENIAL????

6) It seems to me there are many dozens if not many hundreds of such scenarios that are entirely realistic as options for Al Qaeda getting big bang or moderate bang nukes into major centers of American life too easily or quickly to be stopped even if detected.

7) There have been several crises supposedly involving nukes in American history stretching back decades. I don't know if they've increased in frequency since the so called collapse of the Soviet Union [yes, I know technically it's collapsed but I disbelieve the corallary that Russia is neutered in it's military capacities]. But at least the options for lots of money gaining nuke capacities have increased tremendously since the Soviet era.

8) And now we add in extremely starving and enxtremely crazy North Korea with KNOWN nuke capabilities and KNOWN tendencies to sell whatever arms it can to the WORST of the CRAZIEST terrorists . . . And people are demonstrating against dealing with such hazards? Talk about an unsane society! Sheesh.

9) And we even have elected officials and at least one past President giving overt and extensive aid and comfort to the enemy. Where is their sanity and where is our [National--general populace] outrage at their stupidity???? They ought to be so persistently shamed and clothed in rotten eggs that they would find it impossible to come and go from their congressional offices even if the press didn't tell the stark truth about their idiocy.

[Dajjal]

BTTT

[sauropod]

Ping!

[randita]

Ijaz's insightful analysis shows how imperative it is for the U.S. to find out who is really with us and serious about fighting the war on terrorism and to form a strong alliance with those nations and really get down to business.

This playing around with the effete U.N. has got to stop. The U.N. has become a severe impediment to the fight against terrorism. It's time for a new paradigm.

[twntaipan]

I also don't think the Chinese would allow AQ to hit Singapore for the reason that Singapore is a Chinese-dominated nation-state, and one not without influence in China.

[alley cat]

Scary-article-but-Mansoor Ijaz-is-cute BUMP!

[Jim Noble]

>>surprisingly, our ally in the war against al Qaeda, Pakistan<<

I'm not surprised-is anyone else?

[blam]

Osama Bin Laden will not blow himself up. This is just propaganda for his lakeys.

[aeronca]

I always turn up the volume when Mr. Ijaz is on (FNC). FoxNews has some note-worthy analysts onboard.
I also like listening to their Bob Bevelaqua (sp?) who NEVER sugar coats his thoughts and opinions!

[Dog Gone]

Until I see new video that convinces me that Osama is alive today, I'll continue to believe that he's dead.

Al-Qaida is still alive, though, and the danger is real.

[baggadonuts]

You're right, there are plenty of peaceful Moslems. Specifically, the pure Shiites and Sunnis. What we have to worry about are the hate-preaching Wahabbis and their disgraceful imams in the madrasas spinning anti-Western, anti-Christian, anti-American filth.