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To: don-o
ISTM that the more data the weathermen have to work with, the less accurate forecasts have become.

Actually, forecasts have gradually, and continuously, been getting more and more accurate. This can be shown statistically.

However, the perception is otherwise for a variety of reasons:

1) People are ATTEMPTING longer range forecasts than they did 20-30 years ago. Forecasts are more wrong the longer you forecast out, thus creating the impression there is more error.

2) Crisis of rising expectations. Forecasts are VERY gradually getting better...for example, on average, National Hurricane Center track error is reduced by about 1% a year. The improvement is much slower than people's expectations, much slower than the rate technology is getting better, so people get frustrated.

3) Just blatant old-fogeyism....the standard "back in my day, things were better" business. Viewing the past through rose-colored glasses. There was a huge amount of blown forecasts in the 70s, 60s, 50s, 40s, etc.

36 posted on 02/14/2003 3:51:32 PM PST by John H K
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To: John H K
Actually, forecasts have gradually, and continuously, been getting more and more accurate. This can be shown statistically.

Then, why is it that, off the predictions, for this winter alone, in East Tennessee, at least five times, schools have closed early or opened late or cancelled, while Mom and Dad went to work? I am not talking about the mountain counties in Upper East Tennessee, but the valley areas, where the roads are well maintained.

I think it has something to do with fear of lawsuit.

41 posted on 02/14/2003 4:26:46 PM PST by don-o (I feel good about picking freepers brains, because I help pay the bills.)
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