Posted on 02/12/2003 3:39:47 PM PST by knighthawk
The Iranian regime is secure but "increasingly fragile," and Washington is closely monitoring a looming showdown between Iran's reformers and conservatives over the direction of political change, CIA Director George Tenet said.
"We take the prospect of sudden, regime-threatening unrest seriously and continue to watch events in Iran with that in mind," he told a congressional hearing on Tuesday. "For now, our bottom-line analysis is that the Iranian regime is secure but increasingly fragile."
Tenet said a key test would come within the next several weeks as reformers try to push two bills that aim to reform the electoral process and significantly expand presidential powers.
"Some reformist legislators have threatened to resign from government if conservatives block the legislation. Others have argued for holding a referendum on reform if opponents kill the bills," the head of the Central Intelligence Agency said in a report reviewing worldwide threats to US national security.
Tenet also said Tehran was pressing on with efforts to develop a nuclear weapons program, although the "loss of some Russian assistance has impeded this effort." He stated that Iran was also moving toward self-sufficiency in its biological and chemical weapons programs.
On Iran's internal situation, Tenet said the CIA was watching "unfolding events with considerable interest." "We see the dueling factions as heading for a showdown that seems likely to determine the pace and direction of political change in Iran," he added.
According to Tenet, the CIA was currently unable "to identify a leader, organization or issue capable of uniting the widespread desire for change into a coherent political movement that could challenge the regime."
He warned that although the Tehran regime might face a crisis if reformers were to quit the government or if hardliners cracked down hard on leading advocates of change, "the resulting disorder would do little to alleviate US concern over Iran's international behavior."
"No Iranian government, regardless of its ideological leanings, is likely to willingly abandon WMD (weapons of mass destruction) programs that are seen as guaranteeing Iran's security," Tenet told the Senate Select Intelligence Committee.
The world will soon get a lesson in what happens when you really believe, "one size does not fit all! ;-)
When Iraq is liberated, the young reformers in Iran will long for their own freedom.
They will have a chance if they can sway the army.
And what will all the liberal naysayers think when they see the people lined up along the streets of Baghdad waiving little American flags at our troops as they drive through. And the young pro American Iranians that pop up everywhere when their Islamfacists are ousted.
I truly believe it will happen this way.
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