Posted on 02/10/2003 4:22:42 PM PST by knighthawk
Nato has failed to unblock an impasse over military assistance to Turkey in the event of a war against Iraq. Rory Watson reports from Brussels on the row that has split the organisation.
What has been happening today?
Nato ambassadors have been holding talks to reach an agreement over whether Turkey is under threat from Iraq. Over the weekend Nato had started a contingency plan to provide protection for Turkey in the event of a war against Iraq by providing it with Awacs early warning systems and Patriot anti-missile batteries.
The 19 member countries had up until 10am this morning to voice any objection. Between 9am and 10am France, Belgium and Germany objected to the plans. They argued that making preparations for a possible conflict could suggest they had given up on diplomatic efforts at the United Nations to avert war. Their objections effectively put a kibosh on the Nato plans.
How did Turkey react?
Turkey then invoked Article 4 of Nato's founding treaty that calls upon the 19 member countries to hold talks when one member perceives a threat to its "territorial integrity, political independence or security". Turkey is appealing for help and Nato is obliged to listen and then reach its own conclusion on the level of threat against Turkey. If it can agree, then the contingency plans can be reactivated.
That is what the Nato ambassadors have been talking about today and what they will continue to talk about for the rest of the week.
Aside from that Turkey feels snubbed. The trio's decision sends out a very negative message to Turkey. Before Christmas it was rebuffed by the EU which did not give Turkey a starting date for talks on entry. Ever since then diplomats are agreed that it has been "very co-operative", yet it has not been rewarded for its efforts.
It also feels very exposed. Being next to Iraq it is vulnerable to attack and fears an influx of refugees in the event of a strike against Iraq.
Who is lining up against whom?
Ambassadors of the 16 countries that support Turkey are fighting against the French, German and Belgian ambassadors.
The exchanges have been heated and at one point an ambassador said that it was a bit rich that the "one country" – meaning Germany – that had benefited the most from a stable Europe was denying those benefits to Turkey.
The newer Nato members from Eastern Europe have joined the UK, America and the Netherlands in their criticism of the trio's refusal to lend Turkey a hand. Hungary, the Czech Republic and the Poland all feel that they have joined an organisation that should express solidarity for all members. A refusal to help Germany only weakens Nato's integrity.
Which country is proving to be the most resistant?
France and President Chirac are proving to the most stubborn. The consensus among diplomats here is that France cajoled Germany and Belgium into supporting its view. If France can be persuaded to change its tack then it is thought that the others will follow suit.
France's strategy is to do whatever it takes to keep the issue of Iraq in play in the United Nations. By delaying the deployment of any defence systems for Turkey, France ensures that the Iraq question is being dealt with by the United Nations. "Our calendar is fixed to the UN," is how on French diplomat put it. Diplomats for the trio are saying that they want to see what Hans Blix, the UN's chief weapons inspector, has to say to the Security Council on Friday.
How big a problem is this for Nato?
Everyone at Nato headquarters is talking of this issue as the biggest crisis to have hit the organisation since the early 1980s when the US decided to deploy medium range cruise missiles in the UK and the Netherlands.
They are also comparing it to the crisis in 1966 when President de Gaulle of France threw Nato out of France. This is a very serious issue. To ignore a member country's plea for help in time of peril will totally undermine the organisation's integrity, diplomats say.
What happens next?
The ambassadors meet again tomorrow for more talks, but in reality there will be little movement until Friday when Dr Blix delivers his report to Security Council. An EU summit on the issue is also planned for next Monday and there will undoubtedly be some harsh words said then, which might serve to coax the trio into backing down.
What is the likely outcome?
The worst outcome is that the US and the UK become so exasperated that they offer Turkey the protection themselves. Some form of compromise will be reached and at the end of the day the trio will relent. Quite what this will mean in terms of protection for Turkey remains to be seen.
If people want on or off this list, please let me know.
In other news a crack(ed) French carrier force accompanied by a fleet of attack tugs steams at top speed (15 Knots) towards the eastern mediterranean sea.
Your post made me realize that I was thoroughly confused about France and Nato, so I did some Googling. I found this time line helpful.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.