Replies

"If I were Saddam, I would be very, very afraid."

Actually, I think Saddam's figured out a way to take Turkey out of the war and seal off his northern border. First, check out this thread, where we learn that Saddam is clearing a 20-mile no-man's-land between the Kurdish-controlled regions and Iraq proper. Now, Saddam doesn't care about civilian casualties, so keeping US and Turkish troops from intermingling with Kurdish civilians is irrelevant to him—Iraqi troops will fire at will regardless. Clearing out a buffer zone helps us, not Saddam, because we're the army that fights under rules of engagement.

Second, see this report of Iraqi troops on the Kurdish border receiving gas masks and "injector kits." Gas masks are useless against any meaningful chemical weapons. Nobody knows what's in these "injector kits," but it probably isn't atropine—that's not worth the bother without full chemical protection gear, since it only buys you about five minutes to reach safety. So the Kurds' assumption that Saddam is planning on gassing them again doesn't really hold up.

But there's one scenario in which both reports make sense: Maybe Saddam is going to trigger a smallpox epidemic among the Kurds. A civilian-free buffer zone serves as a firebreak or quarantine, preventing any infectious civilians from migrating south and spreading disease among the Iraqi population. Gas masks are useless against nerve gas, but they work just fine to protect the troops enforcing the quarantine from airborne pathogens like smallpox. And those injector kits might contain smallpox vaccine for emergency use on select Iraqi civilians—smallpox vaccine can actually work even when administered after exposure. Heck, those injector kits might contain live smallpox to use on civilians as they evict them.

A smallpox outbreak among the Kurds would secure Saddam's northern flank. First, it would cripple logistics in the Kurdish regions, where we're planning on putting forward air bases. Second, it would generate a massive refugee movement northward, throwing what roads there are into complete chaos. And third, it would quickly spread into Turkey, with all the obvious effects on the Turkish military and civilians.

And there's basically no downside for Saddam at all in this. The Kurdish border, running along the northern "no-fly zone" line, is already militarized, so the quarantine will be easy to establish. He can spread smallpox among civilians quite stealthily, using martyrs, unwitting dupes or released prisoners. Without the "smoking gun" of a biological warhead or a crop-duster overflight, the US would have a hard time making the case for nuking Baghdad, so Saddam has every reason to think he can get away with it. And unlike a "conventional" biological or chemical weapon attack, which must be executed by front-line commanders unwilling to risk our likely response, this would be carried out by his personal guard and/or the Mukhabarat, who are more loyal and less afraid of retaliation.

In short, it seems to me that if Saddam doesn't do this, it's because he just plain doesn't have any smallpox.

bttt

UPDATE

Turkish men watch a live broadcast of U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell (news - web sites) addressing the U.N. Security Council in New York at an electronics shop in Istanbul, Turkey, Wednesday Feb. 5, 2003. Powell, methodically making his case that Iraq has defied all demands that it disarm, presented tape recordings, satellite photos and informants' statements Wednesday that he said constituted ``irrefutable and undeniable'' evidence that Saddam Hussein (news - web sites) is concealing weapons of mass destruction. (AP Photo/Osman Orsal)

A Turkish soldier stands guard at the entrance of a tent city near the Habur border crossing on the Turkish-Iraqi border, southeastern Turkey, Wednesday, Feb. 5, 2003. Turkish relief workers were finishing building a refugee camp, part of Turkey's preparations for the possible influx of thousands of refugees fleeing a war in Iraq. (AP Photo/Murad Sezer)

A military convoy heads for the border of Iraq as Turkey continues to move troops and military equipment, in Adana on Wednesday, Feb. 5, 2003. Turkey's parliament on Thursday was expected to authorize the United States to begin renovating Turkish military bases, but could hold off for more than a week on whether to allow U.S. combat troops to enter the country for a possible attack on neighboring Iraq. (AP Photo/Durmus Ali Baskan, Anatolia)

Turkish soldiers in an M-113 armored personnel carrier stand guard next to a tent city near the Habur border crossing on the Turkish - Iraqi border, southeastern Turkey, Wednesday Feb. 5, 2003. Turkish relief workers worked to finish building a mock refugee camp, part of Turkey's preparations for the possible influx of thousands of refugees fleeing a war in Iraq. The camp, just two kilometers (miles) inside the Turkish border, is being used as a training site for Turkish relief workers who could be dispatched into Iraq to set up as many as 12 camps. (AP Photo/Murad Sezer)

A refugee camp, with the mountains of northern Iraq in the background, is seen near the Habur border crossing on the Turkish-Iraqi border, Wednesday Feb. 5, 2003. Turkish relief workers worked to finish building a mock refugee camp, part of Turkey's preparations for the possible influx of thousands of refugees fleeing a war in Iraq. (AP Photo)

Turkish Army's M-113 armored personnel carriers drive on the road between the Habur border crossing and the southeastern town of Silopi, near the Turkish-Iraqi border, Wednesday Feb. 5, 2003. Turkey's parliament will vote Thursday on authorizing the United States to renovate Turkish military bases, but will hold off for more than a week on whether to allow U.S. combat troops to enter the country for a possible attack on neighboring Iraq. (AP Photo)

Turkish troops man an armored personnel carrier equipped with an anti-aircraft battery, outside a tent city near Silopi on Turkey's southeast frontier with Iraq, February 5, 2003. The tent city was built by Turkish officials to deal with a possible exodus of refugees in the event of a U.S.-led war on Iraq. Prime Minister Abdullah Gul was quoted as saying on Wednesday Turkey would support its ally the United States when parliament votes later this month on opening its bases to U.S. troops for any operation on Iraq. REUTERS/str