[unspun]

For your perusal. Humbly suggest that comments be focused upon the study and report.

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[Wolfie]

While covariates differed between equations, early regular use of tobacco and alcohol emerged as the 2 factors most consistently associated with later illicit drug use and abuse dependence.

Then why are they hyping cannabis?

[jammer]

Just off the top:
1. Telephone interviews? Ohhhh, no chance for investigator bias there, huh?
2. 69% responding? 31% not responding? Well, better than an internet "survey", I suppose, but there might just be a bit of self-selection there, huh?
3. Causal relationship? Absolutely not shown. Here again, even if this sham were a prospective, double-blind study, the cause is not shown. There may be correlation, but one cannot infer cause.

Our long prior knowledge is reinforced about two things:

1. Psychologists who do research will always come up with the inference that satisfies their employers, i.e., governments who supply grant money.

2. JAMA is a political, quasi-medical, organization who should be ashamed to publish this.

[RonF]

So, what they seemed to have proved is that people who use one drug are quite likely to use another. I don't see where they've proved that use of one particular drug in turn leads to the use of others. Seems to me that you could just as easily, and probably more accurately, sum up the study as "People who are prone to use drugs find marijuana most readily available and inexpensive, and its use easiest to conceal." God knows my 16-year old son would find it a lot easier to buy and use marijuana than tobacco or alcohol.

I don't see anything here to tell me that use of marijuana led to the use of other drugs, and that if the person involved had not used marijuana, they wouldn't have picked up some other drug later on.

[unspun]

The JAMA's report in full, on the twins study, FYI.

[goodnesswins]

DAY of SUPPORT....FLY your flags (US, a British one, Hungarian, Australian and Japanese one, too if you have them)....and put up your BUSH/CHENEY signs, (and the BIG W's on your SUV's) for the STATE of the UNION next Tuesday, Jan 28th, if you support the President, our MILITARY and the United States of America. PSST....pass it on.

[monkey]

I don't have time to read through the whole thing right now. However, the conclusion:

Associations between early cannabis use and later drug use and abuse/dependence cannot solely be explained by common predisposing genetic or shared environmental factors. The association may arise from the effects of the peer and social context within which cannabis is used and obtained. In particular, early access to and use of cannabis may reduce perceived barriers against the use of other illegal drugs and provide access to these drugs.

is (while not ridiculous) at least overstated, based on first principles. We can't say why people choose marijuana in the first place, they may be inherently greater risk takers, experimenters or whatever. No two people grow up in the same environment, or are biologically identical. Some twins I've known would actually make deliberately different choices in life, in order to show independence from each other. Some people may simply be predisposed to using drugs, and no amount of correcting for other variables is going to capture that fact.

However, this is still the best approach to study the problem. Thanks for the flag.

[aculeus]

Bump.

[philman_36]

Cross-linked one way, now let's link the other way...Marijuana Is Gateway to Hard Drugs in Twins Study
While the findings of this study indicate that early cannabis use is associated with increased risks of progression to other illicit drug use and drug abuse/dependence, it is not possible to draw strong causal conclusions solely on the basis of the associations shown in this study.