Replies

Libya and Nigeria fear being invaded by the U.S.

Yeah, right.....

Venezuela is a short term "problem."

Even the worst rads want money and will keep the oil flowing...like the Iran Iraq War where they avoided taking out each others oil industries.

OPEC may fall, but it will be due to Russia and Central Asia. The Saudi gas deal was screwed more ffrom the Saudi side, but now fears may come to play.

More likely the OPEC nations, after a crisis maybe, will cut a deal with Russia, etc., to limit output, but with the OPEC nations sacrificing chunks of their allotment shares - expecially Saudi. Bound to happen with Russia alone. Can't be bullied and Saudi Arabia is in a de facto war with them in Chechnya.

Very interesting game. Has much less to do with the US than these type of writers think, except maybe for liberating Iraq and returning its production proportions to pre-1991 levels, if not higher.

BTW, I heard a few days ago that both Saudi and Russia "volunteered" to meet shortfalls that may be cause by the Iraq war. In other words, Russia has learned the Saudi game of making money off crisis, and portraying themselves as noble about it!

War for Oil Reasons why- Liberal speaks truth...
Posted on 01/10/2003 9:18 PM PST by Lucas1
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/820710/posts?

Caspian: Sea's Oil Reserves Estimate Revised Downward
By Michael Lelyveld
http://www.rferl.org/nca/features/2002/04/10042002090808.asp

There are a lot factors prevalent. Survial as a person and a country will have a big impact as we proceed to take out Uncle Soddomite and his Islamofascist thugs.

Iran could have a full scale rebellion within a week or so once the cancer Soddomite has been excised and flushed down into the middle east septic tanks.

This is from this article:

Once the uncertainty and the shock of the situation fades, the most likely scenario would be a flood of oil hitting the market soon thereafter, and the collapse of the cartel.

The flood is likely to come from other OPEC countries such as Libya, and Nigeria that are desperate for foreign capital and are trying to win favor from the United States, since they don't want to be the next countries to be invaded as the war against terrorism spreads its wings from a newly established U.S. military fortress in Iraq.

Other members of the cartel are already U.S. friendly and include Kuwait and Qatar, where the U.S. has significant military installations present. Non-OPEC countries would also scramble to increase their market share. Iraq's own oil industry could take months to years to bring back up to maximal production levels, so it would not be a short-term solution.

On a longer term basis, perhaps within the next 12-18 months, the U.S. is likely to see increasing supplies from Russia, which is aggressively improving its infrastructure, including a key pipeline to Murmansk, a Siberian port that remains open year around. Russia has already been quietly shipping oil to the U.S. Strategic Oil supply, with the first shipment arriving in July 2002.

As Norm notes, what is the downside?