2. More importantly, S. Korea is China's number 3 trading partner. Whatever their strategy is, they need to safeguard their relationship with the South.
From my rant: You can see the action in that there is pressure to ‘turn’ South Korea.
Trade is just one more way to do so.
My personal theory: The CCP knows that its hold on power is based on maintaining the economy. An unstable Korea hurts China's economy. They know that if the North does anything wild, they can kiss a major engine for economic growth good-bye.
YES! Exactly.
Your post is very good and not all that off from what I am trying to say.
Especially like your worst and best case scenarios.
The Russia and Japan card have not been factored in. I was writing about the Chinese position...
China also knows N. Korea cannot have a good economy without US assistance.