To: All; Green Knight; swarthyguy; VOA; Luis Gonzalez; MadIvan; Coop; Destro
A couple of reactions to all of this:
- Regarding the names, keep in mind that some may be non de guerres (like Jose Padilla becoming Abdullah al-Muhajir) and they may be carrying passports and photo IDs under different names.
- Pervez, if I remember correctly, is a Baluch name and there are Baluchs in both Iran and Pakistan. The odds are that this guy is a Pakistani rather than an Iranian because the Iranian Baluchs are Shi'ite. If he is Iranian, he could easily be a Hezbollah contact, which would certainly up the ante quite a bit.
- Regarding the number of al-Qaeda sleep cells, the best guess of US intelligence that I've seen is that around 200 sleepers and 5,000 supporters (in the sense of having active ties to the terrorist organization) survived the post-9/11 dragnet organized by Ashcroft and the Justice Department. If anyone wants to tally up the number of busted sleepers so far they're welcome to do so, but the safest bet is that there are still ~180 sleepers at large within the US. The US has also apparently allowed over 150 terrorist suspects (and I'm betting these guys were IRA) to obtain visas post-9/11, which would raise the number of sleepers to around 350. Al-Qaeda can also call upon existing Hezbollah and al-Fuqra leaders to assist them in their war against the United States, along with perhaps the Nation of Islam.
- It is worth noting that both the United Kingdom and France have made 3 separate major arrests within the last two months of al-Qaeda cells planning to carry out chemical weapons attacks on European targets. Since this contingent was sent in from outside the country, the best conclusion to make is that they were sent over to execute a suicide operation. All suicide operations are under the command of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the head of al-Qaeda's Martyrdom Battalion who is, near as the CIA can figure, being harbored in the Northwest Frontier Province of Pakistan. The nationality of the individuals would seem to confirm that this was indeed planned from Pakistan, which indicates that these guys probably aren't going to have too high a regard for their own lives.
- Depending on where they crossed over from Canada, they have a variety of choices as to their destination. Al-Qaeda has support networks and safehouses in place in Washington State, Michigan, Ohio, New York State, Pennsylvania, and Massachusetts for the sole purpose of assisting sleepers in getting into the United States without being captured by law enforcement. As much as some Freepers like to bash on Muslims, our only real hope at this point is probably going to be a moderate Muslim, like a member of Sheikh Kabbani's Islamic Supreme Council of America, selling these guys out to the FBI, as happened in the case of the "Buffalo Six."
- Al-Qaeda's Canadian branch may well be assisting its North American equivalent in this endeavor (hence the recent spike in terrorist chatter here in North America), which would mean that this would be a coordinated operation by the group's central leadership. Even if these guys simply attacked random New Year's parties with AK-47s, the result would still be a massacre, particularly if they occurred in gun-free states.
- Additionally, if this is an even high grade operation, Abu Khabab, the head of al-Qaeda's chemical and biological weapons bureau, may even choose to provide the sleepers with the ton of VX he bought from Iraq back in October, per the Washington Post. And if that stuff is unleashed at a major New Year's celebration, we're going to be talking about hundreds if not thousands dead. An operation of that scale, however, would likely require the activation of multiple cells for al-Qaeda's trademark of simultaneous attacks. Which leads us to the ominous question of if they know about these sleepers (and I'm amusing this information was obtained from Abd Rahim al-Nashiri), are there others out there that they won't know about until it's too late?
To: Angelus Errare; Miss Marple
247 posted on
12/29/2002 4:46:10 PM PST by
Dog
To: Angelus Errare
"...our only real hope at this point is probably going to be a moderate Muslim, like a member of Sheikh Kabbani's Islamic Supreme Council of America, selling these guys out to the FBI..."That's a curious turn of a phrase. I don't think that I would characterize turning terrorists in to the authorities as "selling" anyone out.
To: Angelus Errare; Abar
There are ominous ( I think) signs that the chechens are planning a new years celebration to beat all past in Moscow as well. Add that to the terror warnings for London and one could think this has potential for an ugly new year.
And how are you, btw? Nice to see you again. Pinging my friend Abar to join us.
331 posted on
12/30/2002 12:03:05 AM PST by
MarMema
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