Critics Say Missile Defense System Unworkable

Reuters via NYTimes.com ^ | 12/17/2002

[GeneD]

Filed at 6:54 p.m. ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The missile defense system President Bush ordered to be deployed will not work and is a waste of money, critics said on Tuesday while the Pentagon acknowledged the system initially will provide only modest protection.

``I have no great confidence that it's going to work under real-world conditions,'' said Lawrence Korb, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations think tank who served as assistant secretary of defense under President Ronald Reagan.

Bush directed the Defense Department to begin deploying a national missile defense system with land- and sea-based interceptor rockets to be up and working in 2004.

The system is intended to protect the United States against long-range enemy missiles. But there have been three failures in the eight major tests involving attempts to shoot down a long-range dummy warhead in space over the Pacific Ocean, including the most recent test on Dec. 11.

Critics said the program is too costly -- tens of billions of dollars already and potentially hundreds of billions of dollars in the long run -- and has not proven that it can work as advertised. They also expressed worry that the deployment might prompt nations such as North Korea and China to step up missile-building efforts.

John Isaacs, president of Council for a Livable World, an organization opposed to the deployment, said Bush was rushing ahead with a system that is ``deaf, dumb and blind.''

``A missile defense system that protects Americans consistently and reliably is years, if not decades, away,'' he said in a statement. ``The planned deployment lacks a needed radar system to make it see, operational tests to determine if it works and satellite systems to provide adequate sensors.''

'IT'S IMPORTANT TO START'

Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said the administration was not rushing into anything.

``The reason I think it's important to start is because you have to put something in place and get knowledge about it and have experience with it, and then add to it over time. I mean, there isn't a single weapons systems we have that hasn't gotten better successively over a period of time that I can think of,'' Rumsfeld said during a Pentagon briefing.

Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Policy J.D. Crouch said the system will have ``very modest'' capability when first deployed, but would be ``very useful.''

Rumsfeld added: ``To the extent we have a capability, it will have a deterrent effect. ... To the extent it has a limited capability, it will have a deterrent effect only to that limit.''

Philip Coyle, who as assistant secretary of defense helped evaluate the program during the Clinton administration, said the tests of the system currently planned are not sufficient to determine whether it will work. ``Based on the test results so far, it isn't ready now,'' he said in an interview.

Korb told Reuters he believed Bush decided to deploy in 2004, the final year of his term in office, in order to have a program in place to ensure its long-term use.

``I think it's mostly a political decision because Bush can't be guaranteed a second term, and by picking that particular date what he does is he locks in his successor,'' Korb added.

Some congressional Democrats were critical.

Democratic Sen. Carl Levin of Michigan, outgoing chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said Bush's decision ``violates common sense by determining to deploy systems before they have been tested and shown to work.''

U.S. Rep. Edward Markey of Massachusetts added, ``It wastes taxpayer dollars and lulls us into a false sense of security.''

``It's all politics and not much defense,'' said Rep. Thomas Allen, a Maine Democrat who noted the deployment target was the fall of 2004, when Bush is expected to seek re-election.

Rumsfeld was asked if the decision was driven by politics.

``It is driven by acute rationality,'' Rumsfeld said. ``There isn't anything we're doing in this department that it would be accurate to suggest is rooted in politics.''

[sam_paine]

You ain't seen nuthin, yet, Critics!

Lockheed Martin Missiles and Fire Control is developing the Patriot Advanced Capability (PAC-3) Missile under a Low-Rate Initial Production (LRIP) contract for the Air and Missile Defense Program Executive Office. The PAC-3 Missile will be incorporated into the Patriot air defense system.

The PAC-3 Segment upgrade consists of the PAC-3 Missile, a highly agile hit-to-kill interceptor, the PAC-3 Missile canisters (in four packs), a fire solution computer and an Enhanced Launcher Electronics System (ELES). These elements will be integrated into the Patriot system, a high to medium altitude, long-range air defense missile system providing air defense of ground combat forces and high-value assets.

The PAC-3 Missile uses hit-to-kill technology to destroy its targets, and was selected principally for the extremely high lethality the missile delivers. Adding the PAC-3 Missile to the Patriot air defense system will increase system firepower and lethality, as well as increase battlespace and range.

The PAC-3 Missile uses a solid propellant rocket motor, aerodynamic controls, attitude control motors (ACMs) and inertial guidance to navigate. The missile flies to an intercept point specified prior to launch by its ground-based fire solution computer, which is embedded in the engagement control station. Target trajectory data can be updated during missile flyout by means of a radio frequency uplink/downlink.

Shortly before arrival at the intercept point, the PAC-3 Missile's Ka band seeker acquires the target, selects the optimal aim point and terminal guidance is initiated. The highly agile, hit-to-kill missile's airframe is lightweight and maneuverable. The ACMs, which are small, short duration solid propellant rocket motors located in the missile forebody, fire explosively to refine the missile's course to assure body-to-body impact. For certain targets, the missile deploys a Lethality Enhancer to further increase the probability of target kill.

The PAC-3 Missile will be capable of countering TBMs armed with weapons of mass destruction, cruise missiles and aircraft in the presence of electronic countermeasures and all weather conditions.

Subcontractors to Lockheed Martin Missiles and Fire Control on the PAC-3 Missile segment upgrade include Honeywell, Clearwater, Florida, inertial measurement unit; Boeing North America, Duluth, Georgia, millimeter wave active radar seeker; Atlantic Research Corp., Gainesville, Virginia, solid rocket motor and attitude control motors; and Lucas Aerospace, Aurora, Ohio, Aerodynamic Maneuvering System Actuation Sets (AMSAS).

[Jhoffa_]

The missile defense system President Bush ordered to be deployed will not work and is a waste of money, critics said on Tuesday while the Pentagon acknowledged the system initially will provide only modest protection.

I stopped right here..

What kind of twisted logic is this? What school kid doesn't know that:

1) When it comes to technology, Darwin was right. It evolves. all new technologies evolve and mature.. Opposite thinking is demonstrably false and would leave us painting cave walls with charcoal till the end of time.

2) What's wrong with "moderate protection" anyway? they say this like it's a dirty word or something.

If you take a minute to think about what kind of scenario would lead to the use of a missile defense shield then you will realize that by the time we need it, it's all we have left. If there is a missile ripping it's way through the atmosphere on it's way to the US, who would argue against "moderate" protection then?

By the time we need it the options are either a detonation or a shoot down.. So, by default SDI detractors would prefer the detonation?

There had been too much craziness this week already.

The whole country has gone nuts I think..

[fogarty]

What the f**k kind of good is as Missile Defense System if Bush keeps the borders wide-open? Does it make a difference if we can take down ICBMs with a single shot yet allow a thousand illegal immigrant Osama bin Laden wanna-be's through our borders?

Jorge Bush is seeing a mole in his backyard and ignoring the rampaging mammoth destroying his living room.

[elbucko]

Since I'm not Martin Sheen, cool! LOL. It was called a "Ring of Steel" around a lot of cities in the US. A lot of people, including Sheen (who declared Santa Monica a "nuclear free zone") didn't know that their Nike neighbors were packing some interesting warheads.

But nothing ever happened, did it? No missiles going off. No explosions. The most dangerous thing at a Nike site was a sleepy crew coming off "hot status" or one coming in with hangovers.

I would rather have a N-warhead in the corner of my living room than a lawyer spend the night in my guest room. The lawyer is more dangerous and unpredictable.

[pfflier]

The critics said that humans could never travel over 60 MPH or death by asphyxiation would result.

The critics said that man was not intended to fly

The critics said that commercial air transportation was impractical, that steamships would rule the Atlantic.

Critics said that a sound barrier existed that would destroy the plane and it's pilot.

Critics said that color TV was impossible.

Critics said that heart transplants were impossible.

See a trend yet?

[maestro]

1st strike 'can' work very well!

[Monty22]

While I support a missile defense, the real threat is a nuke trucked in from Mexico. That's probably 90% of the threat, and they only need it to work once to suceed..

I suppose after we lose 1, 2, 20 cities we'll close the borders and shoot down any incoming plane or boat without notice.

[Tequila Mockingbird]

The system is intended to protect the United States against long-range enemy missiles. But there have been three failures in the eight major tests involving attempts to shoot down a long-range dummy warhead in space over the Pacific Ocean, including the most recent test on Dec. 11."

The producers of CNN News Alert felt compelled to state this fact in the same negative manner. How suprising!

[elbucko]

100 interceptors total--70 Spartan, 30 Sprint--deployed at Grand Forks AFB, North Dakota.

Well that fired off a few of my dormant brain cells. I remember that installation. My focus, at this time was a Pacific Defense that never got beyond planning. I saw the writing on the wall and hung around a National Guard site before I left "ADA" for good.

[elbucko]

Do a Google on the titles, you'll find 'em.

.Thanks, I will. See ya later.

[sam_paine]

What the f**k kind of good is as Missile Defense System if Bush keeps the borders wide-open?

When we get past Iraq and/or Iran, North Korea and/or China is working hard to get to the point of being able to blackmail us with ballistic missiles...and then it won't matter how many "f**kin" tight borders we have, does it???

Do you just wear belts and suspenders....or do you put on your pants first?

[Doc On The Bay]

Thank You; Those Who Strive, Often Succeed!--Those Who "Give Up" ALWAYS FAIL!

Doc

[pfflier]

Any aerospace engineers here who are working on telemetry and vector issues on this thing. I'd really like to know, in generic and unclassified terms, some of the difficulties involved.

It really boils down to three things:

1) Target acquisition: Knowing that a threat exists, identifying it and locking on to it. Phased array radar does it well. Next is information processing. Knowing the trajectory, knowing the intercept capabilities and making the two meet.

In the '80's the 386@16 MHz was the best processor available for this task and was "challenged". Now any school kid will laugh at a system that isn't light years ahead of that technology and in the classroom.

2)Pre-launch and launch: Any kill vehicle has to get to the acquired target. It's launch platform has to be launch-ready nearly instantaneously. We have had this technology since 1961 with the "Ace in the Hole" Minuteman and the next generation Peacekeeper as well as the Navy's Polaris, Poseidon, Trident and Standard. The technology is there and ready.

3)Intercept: The kill vehicle has to get enough energy on the target to destroy or deflect it. The bullet has been in place since the seventeenth century and has been getting smarter. The microcircuit has been in place for 40 years and has been getting smaller and more dense. The integrated control systems (sensors) for steering and acquisition used to involve entire aircraft (F-102) or truck platforms (Mace/Matador/Snark) now they mount on weapons as "add on enhancements" (smart bombs).

We are limited only by our imagination or by the critics who lack it.

[Chu Gary]

"Critics said the program is too costly -- tens of billions of dollars already and potentially hundreds of billions of dollars in the long run -- and has not proven that it can work as advertised."

RIGHT!, Instead, we should spend these monies on things that work as advertised, like Affirmative Action, Welfare, Head Start, etc. - things that have clearly worked really, really well.

Of course, OTOH, if any of those re-distribution of income programs could demonstrate a 62.5% success rate, I think even us cynics might agree that they show promise!

[Archangelsk]

It really boils down to three things:(Snip)

Then it sounds like a software integration problem to me (unless I'm really wrong).

[GOP_1900AD]

All the "MAD hatters" are clearly livid about this. Can't continue to use lack of continental defenses to blackmail the sheeple into ongoing appeasement of future enemi... oops, make that "trade partners" (e.g. PRC, Russia, etc...). Well, in truth this is a very modest system indeed, and with the scheduled unilateral nuclear disarmament, is only a drop in the bucket. But still, I just love to see Upper West Side "MAD hatters" squirm as their shop keepers' Fukuyamaian, utopian world view (e.g. "world trade will suspend war between great powers forever") is challenged, even if only in a small way! ;)

[desertcry]

You sound like a person with hands on experience on ballistic missiles.

[GOP_1900AD]

Oops, sorry, a brainfart... that should have been "Upper East Side" in the referenced post. Plus, ping to a few additional folks

[fogarty]

Of the powers you listed only two have nuclear ballistic missile capability - and of those two, they offered NOWHERE near the threat we had when we faced the Soviets for some 40 years.

Like it or not, this threat is a 500 yard target compared to the immigrants and terrorists we are simply letting waltz through our borders. Those are the 100 yard targets we need to be aiming for. And I guarantee you US enemy #1 Osama Bin Laden is laughing his ass off as we put $billions into ballistic missile threats while his buddies skate through our unprotected borders.

[pfflier]

You got it!