I came accross this phrase in Pat Buchanan's last book, The Death of the West: "Demographics is destiny."
Unfortunately, the depressing facts are that Europe's population is shrinking due to low birth rates, except for one country - Albania! The scary thing is, if this continues for a couple of generations, Albanians may very well end up being the center of gravity in the Balkans after all.
But,in order for nation to become center of gravity,that nation has to offer something to her neighbours.Something constructive.Albanians have nothing to offer,nothing of value.If we disregard,violence,rasism,medeival society and customs...crime,drugs,pimping and prostitution,and mayhem.Even if they create Grater Albania,economicaly they will be in trouble for a generation to come.
Black hole more likely,not center of gravity.
That's correct. This is the same issue that will come and haunt Israelis -- their proportion of Arabs is about the same as Albanians in Serbia -- roughly 20 percent with a huge birth rate.
Some Israelis are suggesting "deporting" their Arab citizens as "undesirable" potential and real 5th column. Sounds preposterous, but so is their future. In another 50 years or so, Arabs will be the majority in the Jewish state, and then what?
Those who cling to Kosovo solution by "reintegrating" it are wrong. Dead wrong. The only possible "solution" for the Kosovo situation is for Serbs at this point to lick their wounds and try to salvage as much as possible: partition.
But what good will partition do if in the next 10 years or so there is another tidal wave of Albanians spilling into the Serb partition? The partition must be not just geographic but demographic as well. Albanians will have to decide where they will live -- and if they decide to live in Serbia, they will have to accept Serbia as their homeland.
Unlike Israel, Serbia is facing ethnic reality in her face from more than one source and must do something about it -- soon! Today, about 2/3 of Serbia's population are Serbs, which means that ever third person there is not an ethnic Serb. Serbia must come to grips with its ethnic issue and redefine the concept of ethnic groups there, or face national extinction in not such a distant future.
One of the reasons why multiculturalism has worked so far in countries like the U.S is because the immigrants become "absorbed" or "assimilated" in one, two, maybe three generations. Everybody in Amnerica can celebrate their culture, speak their language and so on at home and in private schools, but they are all expected to be Americans and speak English in public life. There are no autonomous provinces in the U.S. Geographic autonomy is simply a no-go.
Indian reservations are the closest thing to it, but they are officially "sovereign nations." In reality, they depend on the Federal Government and are expected to show allegience to it, so their sovereignty amounts to some conditional autonomy. More importantly, the American government can take a non-chalant attitude towards its Indian population because they are but 1% of the total number of Americans.
In Serbia, as it is in Israel, the minorities will not assimilate, and their proportion is physically a lot different and growing. Hungarians in Voyvodina may have been born there for generations, but thye won't say they are Hungarian-Serbians, no -- they call themselves "Hungarians from Voyvodina." In America, people of Italian descent -- one, two generations back -- refer to themselves as Italian-Americans.
In the Balkans, cultural and religious differences are treated as biological or genetic or racial attributes. There are no "Serbian genes" as there are no "Croatian genes." What makes one a Serb is a culutre, a way of life, and that is learned. No one is born a Serb!
So, Serbia needs to work on two issues: (1) secure it geographic and demographic integirty through pragmatic policies, even if it means counting losses and moving on, and (2) re-establishing its national identity and redefining ethnic autonomy to reflect culutral life and not political or territorial concepts. Above all, it must demand loylaty of its citizens to the country of their birth, and not to the country of their ancestoral origin.
Some tribes may have become extinct, but nations usually survive. Jews are a perfect example of that -- they survived because of their culture and not because of their land. Serbs have forgotten who they are; they have lost touch with their past, their history is illegible to them, their language unclear and disunified. They are an amateur nation at this point. We shall see if they have a survival instinct like the Israelis, or if they will go down the history lane as one of the major Darwin Awards recepients.