The focus on the O'Neill resignation was very strong and very strong that the economy was doing poorly. Your analysis in an attempt to refute KQQL's point seems to deliberately leave out that factor, making it less than credible.
Granted, it may not have affected 95%+ of the people's votes, but in a close race like this one, it can make a huge difference.
I repeat that O'Neill's resignation was a non-factor. "All politics is local." The fraudulent "sugar from Mexico" story was far, far, far more likely to be a factor.
I'll bet O'Neill's resignation didn't turn three votes in the whole state.