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Unable to provide tables and data.
1 posted on 12/07/2002 9:23:44 AM PST by Atlas Sneezed
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To: *bang_list
Bang
2 posted on 12/07/2002 9:27:05 AM PST by Atlas Sneezed
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To: Beelzebubba
I wonder how John Lott's study of similar factors can have reached an entirely different conclusion. Perhaps Mr. Lott could be called on to evaluate this study and verify its findings for those of us unschooled in the art of statistics.
3 posted on 12/07/2002 9:32:49 AM PST by IronJack
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To: Beelzebubba
The United States has higher rates of firearm ownership than do other developed nations...

Not nearly as high as Switzerland, which has a lower violent crime rate than Great Britain, where private ownership of firearms is rigidly controlled. This study's premise is flawed and its conclusions are untrustworthy or outright wrong.

5 posted on 12/07/2002 9:42:11 AM PST by Post Toasties
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To: Beelzebubba
Conclusions. Although our study cannot determine causation, we found that in areas where household firearm ownership rates were higher, a disproportionately large number of people died from homicide.

So what?

All it may be saying is that where crime is a problem --- as manifested by the number of homicides --- people counteract the problem by protecting themselves and buying more guns.

6 posted on 12/07/2002 9:43:39 AM PST by TopQuark
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To: Beelzebubba
"Conclusions. Although our study cannot determine causation ...."

End of story. Might I suggest that their next study determine the relationship between the total number of doctors vs. total numbers of deaths (Uh-oh, as one increases, so does the other -- not that I determined causation or anything).

8 posted on 12/07/2002 9:57:22 AM PST by robertpaulsen
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To: Beelzebubba
"Unable to provide tables and data."

That's OK. You appear able to provide data printed no later than 1993 which pertains to events in 1997:

Rates of Household Firearm Ownership and Homicide Across US Regions and States, 1988–1997

Vol 92, No. 12 | American Journal of Public Health 1988-1993 | December 2002 | Matthew Miller, MD

Time travel makes up for lack of data.

9 posted on 12/07/2002 10:08:19 AM PST by boris
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To: Beelzebubba
...gun ownership may be a risk factor for committing homicide

I should certainly hope so! Here in Texas, we have a saying that, "There's a few sunsab!tches that need shootin'!"

I would be appalled to learn that all those folks are buying guns and then failing to use them effectively for their primary purpose: self/home defense. IOW, this study obviously considers it a "bad thing" when an honest citizen blows away some scumbag perp who is threatening said citizen or his family with deadly violence.

Some "homicides" are, indeed, justified, and are, imo, worthwhile acts.

"Risk factor", my @$$! How about "enabler".

13 posted on 12/07/2002 10:47:26 AM PST by TXnMA
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To: Beelzebubba
Just another opinion, evolved into a conclusion, that's in search of any kind of remote facts that may substantiate the theory, to prove the original opinion.

If these people conclude pigs can fly, call PETA.

15 posted on 12/07/2002 10:57:40 AM PST by elbucko
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To: Beelzebubba
Ah yes and lets ignore the variables
Race
Age
Ethnicity
Location
Culture
Economic Status
Illegal vs legal firearms ownership

Not to mention backwards logic..working from the crime end to the gun ownership end...
"In eight out of ten home where a homocide was committed a gun was also owned by one or more of the residents of that dwelling.."

Garbage science with an agenda...

When gun grabbing commies do science..

In the little northern Wi town I grew up in..most everyone owned a couple of rifles and a shotgun..We took our rifles to school (with ammo) to go squirrel or rabbit hunting with our buddies after..Never Never not ever was anyone kid even threatend with a gun..

In fact considering all the firearms in the town and surrounding farms I dont even remember one single murder committed ...we had a cop shot during a robbery back in the 40s...
The perps were from Chicago..

Violent crime seem to increase about the time Warner cable came to town..and we were exposed to what the city people were doing ...albeit vicariously.. but the kids couldnt wait to grow up and leave town for the big city...
16 posted on 12/07/2002 11:17:27 AM PST by joesnuffy
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To: Beelzebubba
notice how they 'normed' for everything ...

except race. hmmm. i 'wonder' how the study would have turned out.

17 posted on 12/07/2002 11:19:14 AM PST by johnboy
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To: Beelzebubba
Here are the tables:


TABLE 1 —Crude Incidence Rate Ratios of Regional Homicide in the United States by Region-Level Proxies of Firearm Prevalence, 1988–1997

Victim Age Homicide (95% CI) Gun-Related Homicide (95% CI) Non–gun-Related Homicide (95% CI)

0–4 years
    FS/S 1.11 (0.98, 1.24)* 1.22 (1.10, 1.35){dagger} 1.09 (0.97, 1.24)
    GSS ANY GUN 1.08 (0.98, 1.20) 1.24 (1.13, 1.36){dagger} 1.06 (0.96, 1.18)
    GSS HANDGUN 1.07 (0.97, 1.18) 1.20 (1.07, 1.34)*** 1.06 (0.95, 1.17)
5–14 years
    FS/S 1.15 (1.02, 1.29)** 1.21 (1.03, 1.42)** 1.05 (0.98, 1.12)
    GSS ANY GUN 1.11 (0.98, 1.26) 1.15 (0.94, 1.39) 1.05 (0.97, 1.11)
    GSS HANDGUN 1.14 (1.02, 1.26)** 1.20 (1.02, 1.41)** 1.04 (0.98, 1.11)
15–24 years
    FS/S 1.10 (0.90, 1.34) 1.11 (0.89, 1.39) 1.07 (0.96, 1.20)
    GSS ANY GUN 1.04 (0.87, 1.24) 1.04 (0.85, 1.27) 1.02 (0.93, 1.12)
    GSS HANDGUN 1.10 (0.92, 1.31) 1.11 (0.91, 1.35) 1.07 (0.96, 1.20)
25–34 years
    FS/S 1.24 (1.00, 1.53)* 1.26 (0.99, 1.61)* 1.17 (1.01, 1.37)*
    GSS ANY GUN 1.16 (0.96, 1.40) 1.18 (0.95, 1.46) 1.11 (0.98, 1.26)*
    GSS HANDGUN 1.21 (1.01, 1.47)** 1.24 (1.00, 1.54)** 1.15 (1.01, 1.32)**
35–44 years
    FS/S 1.35 (1.09, 1.66)*** 1.44 (1.13, 1.84)*** 1.19 (1.02, 1.39){dagger}
    GSS ANY GUN 1.26 (1.05, 1.53)** 1.34 (1.07, 1.67)** 1.14 (0.99, 1.30)*
    GSS HANDGUN 1.31 (1.09, 1.58)*** 1.39 (1.13, 1.73)*** 1.17 (1.02, 1.34)**
45–54 years
    FS/S 1.32 (1.10, 1.59)*** 1.43 (1.18, 1.73){dagger} 1.16 (0.97, 1.38)*
    GSS ANY GUN 1.25 (1.05, 1.49)** 1.35 (1.12, 1.63)*** 1.10 (0.95, 1.28)
    GSS HANDGUN 1.30 (1.10, 1.54)*** 1.40 (1.17, 1.67){dagger} 1.14 (0.98, 1.33)*
55–64 years
    FS/S 1.35 (1.19, 1.53){dagger} 1.48 (1.29, 1.70){dagger} 1.21 (1.07, 1.36)***
    GSS ANY GUN 1.27 (1.11, 1.45)*** 1.39 (1.16, 1.63){dagger} 1.14 (1.02, 1.27)**
    GSS HANDGUN 1.32 (1.17, 1.50){dagger} 1.44 (1.26, 1.65){dagger} 1.19 (1.06, 1.33)***
>= 65 years
    FS/S 1.38 (1.20, 1.59){dagger} 1.63 (1.44, 1.85){dagger} 1.26 (1.09, 1.45)***
    GSS ANY GUN 1.31 (1.13, 1.51){dagger} 1.51 (1.28, 1.80){dagger} 1.21 (1.05, 1.38)**
    GSS HANDGUN 1.35 (1.18, 1.56){dagger} 1.60 (1.36, 1.88){dagger} 1.23 (1.07, 1.40)***
All ages
    FS/S 1.23 (1.02, 1.49)** 1.27 (1.02, 1.58)** 1.16 (1.01, 1.33)**
    GSS ANY GUN 1.16 (0.98, 1.38)* 1.19 (0.97, 1.45)* 1.11 (0.98, 1.25)*
    GSS HANDGUN 1.21 (1.02, 1.44)** 1.25 (1.03, 1.52)** 1.14 (1.01, 1.29)**


Note. CI = confidence interval. Regional household firearm ownership prevalence was estimated using 3 measures: (1) a proxy representing the percentage of suicides that are firearm suicides (FS/S), (2) household gun ownership rates as reported in the General Social Survey (GSS ANY GUN), and (3) household handgun ownership rates as reported in the General Social Survey (GSS HANDGUN). All measures are standardized at the regional level so that their mean equals 0 and their standard deviation equals 1. Incidence rate ratios correspond to the standardized proxies. Over the 10-year study period, on average, our proxies vary across regions by 3.1, 3.4, and 3.4 standard deviations for FS/S, GSS ANY GUN, and GSS HANDGUN, respectively. Longitudinal variation is an order of magnitude smaller: over time, FS/S, GSS ANY GUN, and GSS HANDGUN measures fall within 0.35, 0.33, and 0.34 standard deviations of one another. Overall, when each region assumes a distinct prevalence estimate for each year, proxies span 3.6, 4.5, and 4.7 standard deviations for FS/S, GSS ANY GUN, and GSS HANDGUN, respectively.
*P < 0.1; **P < 0.05; ***P < 0.01; {dagger}P < 0.001. All P values are two-tailed.







TABLE 2 —Crude and Multivariate Adjusted Incidence Rate Ratios of State-Level Homicide by State-Level Measures of Firearm Prevalence, 1988–1997

Victim Age Homicide (95% CI) Gun-Related Homicide (95% CI) Non–gun-Related Homicide (95% CI)

0–4 years
    FS/S (bivariate) 1.09 (1.02, 1.17)** 1.26 (1.13, 1.41){dagger} 1.07 (1.00, 1.15)*
    FS/S (multivariate) 1.07 (0.98, 1.17) 1.35 (1.18, 1.53){dagger} 1.05 (0.96, 1.15)
5–14 years
    FS/S (bivariate) 1.13 (1.03, 1.24)*** 1.20 (1.07, 1.36)*** 1.04 (0.97, 1.11)
    FS/S (multivariate) 1.15 (1.03, 1.28)** 1.23 (1.07, 1.41)*** 1.05 (0.97, 1.13)
15–24 years
    FS/S (bivariate) 1.10 (0.94, 1.27) 1.12 (0.93, 1.34) 1.03 (0.94, 1.11)
    FS/S (multivariate) 1.23 (1.12, 1.34){dagger} 1.32 (1.18, 1.47){dagger} 1.02 (0.95, 1.10)
25–34 years
    FS/S (bivariate) 1.23 (1.08, 1.41)** 1.28 (1.09, 1.52)** 1.13 (1.03, 1.25)**
    FS/S (multivariate) 1.27 (1.10, 1.49)** 1.39 (1.23, 1.57){dagger} 1.10 (1.02, 1.19)**
35–44 years
    FS/S (bivariate) 1.32 (1.17, 1.49){dagger} 1.45 (1.24, 1.71){dagger} 1.15 (1.04, 1.26)***
    FS/S (multivariate) 1.35 (1.23, 1.48){dagger} 1.52 (1.35, 1.77){dagger} 1.15 (1.06, 1.24){dagger}
45–54 years
    FS/S (bivariate) 1.32 (1.16, 1.49){dagger} 1.45 (1.25, 1.68){dagger} 1.14 (1.02, 1.27)**
    FS/S (multivariate) 1.33 (1.19, 1.48){dagger} 1.48 (1.30, 1.68){dagger} 1.12 (1.02, 1.24)**
55–64 years
    FS/S (bivariate) 1.34 (1.21, 1.49){dagger} 1.51 (1.32, 1.73){dagger} 1.17 (1.06, 1.29)***
    FS/S (multivariate) 1.36 (1.24, 1.50){dagger} 1.54 (1.37, 1.72){dagger} 1.18 (1.07, 1.38)***
>= 65 years
    FS/S (bivariate) 1.36 (1.22, 1.52){dagger} 1.64 (1.46, 1.84){dagger} 1.24 (1.11, 1.38){dagger}
    FS/S (multivariate) 1.39 (1.27, 1.53){dagger} 1.71 (1.53, 1.91){dagger} 1.24 (1.13, 1.37){dagger}
All ages
    FS/S (bivariate) 1.22 (1.08, 1.37)*** 1.28 (1.10, 1.50)*** 1.11 (1.03, 1.21)**
    FS/S (multivariate) 1.27 (1.16, 1.39){dagger} 1.41 (1.27, 1.57){dagger} 1.10 (1.02, 1.19)**


Note. CI = confidence interval. Adjusted analyses control for rates of violent index crimes other than homicide (aggravated assault, forcible rape, and robbery), percentage unemployed of the adult population, percentage of the population living in poverty, percentage of the population living in metropolitan areas, and per capita alcohol consumption. Household firearm ownership prevalence was estimated for all 50 states using the percentage of suicides that are firearm suicides (FS/S) as a proxy. FS/S is standardized so that its mean equals 0 and its standard deviation equals 1. Incidence rate ratios correspond to standardized values for FS/S. Over the 10-year study period, on average, FS/S spans 4.1 standard deviations across the 50 states (FS/S ranges from 0.29 to 0.80); within-state variation is far smaller, ranging, on average, across 0.28 standard deviation (FS/S ranges from 0.58 to 0.61). Overall, when each state assumes a distinct value for each year, FS/S spans 5.1 standard deviations (FS/S ranges from 0.21 to 0.85).
*P < 0.1; **P < 0.05; ***P < 0.01; {dagger}P < 0.001. All P values are two-tailed.





TABLE 3 —Homicide Deaths in States With the Highest vs the Lowest Average Gun Ownership Prevalence Index, 1988–1997

Victim Age High Gun States Low Gun States Mortality Rate Ratio (High Gun:Low Gun)

Total population, all ages 158 million 160 million
0–4 years
    Gun-related homicide 67 17 4.0
    Non–gun-related homicide 437 293 1.5
    Total 504 310 1.6
5–14 years
    Gun-related homicide 302 80 3.8
    Non–gun-related homicide 149 104 1.5
    Total 451 184 2.5
15–24 years
    Gun-related homicide 5157 1539 3.4
    Non–gun-related homicide 963 697 1.4
    Total 6120 2236 2.8
25–34 years
    Gun-related homicide 4397 1078 4.1
    Non–gun-related homicide 1445 920 1.6
    Total 5842 1998 3.0
35–44 years
    Gun-related homicide 2825 495 5.8
    Non–gun-related homicide 1168 684 1.7
    Total 3993 1179 3.4
45–54 years
    Gun-related homicide 1316 264 5.0
    Non–gun-related homicide 544 331 1.7
    Total 1860 595 3.2
55–64 years
    Gun-related homicide 609 106 5.8
    Non–gun-related homicide 402 216 1.9
    Total 1011 322 3.2
>= 65 years
    Gun-related homicide 602 80 7.6
    Non–gun-related homicide 745 331 2.3
    Total 1347 411 3.3
All ages
    Gun-related homicide 15 283 3668 4.2
    Non–gun-related homicide 5865 3598 1.6
    Total 21 148 7266 2.9


Note. For ease of comparison, similar populations were obtained by comparing the 4 states with the lowest gun ownership rates ("low gun states") and the 6 states with the highest gun ownership rates ("high gun states"). The 6 states with the highest average gun ownership rates for 1988 to 1997 were Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, Wyoming, West Virginia, and Arkansas. The 4 states with the lowest average gun ownership rates for 1988 to 1997 were Hawaii, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and New Jersey. Overall mortality rate ratios and ratios for each age stratum use strata-specific populations as denominators.





20 posted on 12/07/2002 11:38:53 AM PST by Atlas Sneezed
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To: Beelzebubba
Ka-boom!
22 posted on 12/07/2002 11:41:45 AM PST by afraidfortherepublic
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To: Beelzebubba
"General Social Survey (GSS).18 The GSS, conducted by the National Opinion Research Center (Chicago, Ill) in most years from 1972 to 1993 and biennially since 1994, is the gold standard for national surveys of gun ownership. In its current form, the GSS is conducted by personal interview with a national area probability sample of 3000 noninstitutionalized adults."

Here is a typical session for a subject with any common sense:

Q. "Do you own guns?"

A. "**** you!"
23 posted on 12/07/2002 11:46:29 AM PST by Atlas Sneezed
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To: Beelzebubba
Conclusions. Although our study cannot determine causation, we found that in areas where household firearm ownership rates were higher, a disproportionately large number of people died from homicide.

My conclusion: Although their study cannot determine causation, they found that in areas where homicide rates were higher, a disproportionately large number of people owned firearms, possibly to defend themselves.

24 posted on 12/07/2002 11:52:19 AM PST by xm177e2
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To: Beelzebubba
non–gun-related homicide rates were also elevated in regions where there were more guns

With this correlation, we are left to conclude either:

1. that the presence of guns makes people more likely to murder with knives or clubs, etc., or

2. that the presence of stabbings and clubbings makes people more likely to buy guns.

Given that #2 is the only logical choice, there is no reason to assume that this same causation applies to the purchase of guns in response to gun homicides, accounting for at least a large part of the correlation, undermining the strained thesis of the study.

29 posted on 12/07/2002 12:25:08 PM PST by Atlas Sneezed
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To: Beelzebubba
Given that household firearm ownership rates are likely to be only a crude measure of firearm availability, the robust association we report between measures of firearm prevalence and rates of homicide is striking.

Huh?! They are essentially saying that because their data is garbage, their conclusions are strengthened!

31 posted on 12/07/2002 12:39:50 PM PST by Atlas Sneezed
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To: Beelzebubba
Our study included only a limited number of potential confounders—poverty, urbanization, unemployment, alcohol consumption, and violent crimes (aggravated assault, forcible rape, and robbery)—and then only in state-level analyses.

Notably absent: race.

33 posted on 12/07/2002 12:41:39 PM PST by Atlas Sneezed
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To: Beelzebubba
Results. In region- and state-level analyses, a robust association between rates of household firearm ownership and homicide was found.

This is an absolute bald-faced lie. Of the six high-gun ownership states cited, four had very high homicide rates and two very LOW homicide rates. That disproves their entire thesis on the spot - some other factor is at play here (and a very un-PC) factor at that.

41 posted on 12/09/2002 7:12:17 AM PST by dirtboy
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