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Re #62

The size of population is not the reason Japanese economy crashed in early 90's. There are many countries who boast large population which are still struggling. The reason they do not realize their growth potential is the shaky economic foundation not just as Americans see it, but even as other tiger economy or Japanese economy sees it.

As I said many times, the problem of China is not that it cannot grow to be a major economic power some day but rather that it tries to get there in a really unscrupulous way much like Indonesia did. It tends to ignore its vast territory, diverse ethnic groups, and different regional idiosyncracies.

If you keep at it, what will happen is a painful shakeout.

Again, you are ignoring simple reality. Pick up a newspaper and look around the world today. You have Third World republics all floundering and requiring IMF bailouts while China races ahead. All the time you are predicting that China is the country that's going to fail, it is today's Third World republics which are actually failing. Of course, you are completely oblivious to this. In your mind, only democratic developing countries can possibly perform well economically. But again, I ask you, just pick up a newspaper. As we speak, all of Latin America is growing disillusioned with democracy and electing socialist leaders. In Poland, the shipyard where Lech Walesa led the Solidarity movement had to be re-nationalized recently by the Polish government because Poland's economy is failing. Not only that, Poland's new President is a communist. Most of E. Europe is actually putting a bunch of communists back into power. In African Third World democracies, the majority-poor black populations are using their new voting powers to confiscate the white farmers' lands. Again, please just pick up a newspaper.

On Japan, it's again a simple numerical fact that Japan's per-capita GDP would have to be around $100,000 in order for Japan's overall GDP to be bigger than America's. You seem to have a lot of opinions and theories for how the world is supposed to work but no appreciation for facts.

On Indonesia, it was doing fine up until it adopted democracy a few years now. Prior to that Indonesia's economy was growing 10% a year, now it's been experiencing $10 bil. in capital flight a year for each of the past 4 years.

After Russia democratized, what happened? Capital flight. After Indonesia democratized, what happened? Capital flight. After even Taiwan democratized, what happened? Capital flight.

Are you sure your theory about how democracy is the only way to go for developing countries is correct?

As a matter of fact, it is precisely because today's Third World democracies are unstable, dysfunctional basketcases, plagued by neverending legislative gridlock, that foreign investors largely avoid today's Third World democracies and invest in China instead.