[TigerLikesRooster]

Re #56

Globalization means that things can change fast in either direction. When the going is good, the sky is the limit. If not, the pit you will fall into has no bottom.

During the boom time, it really appears that an economy grows exponentially indefinitely. American felt it that way for last several years until a year or so ago. But it stalls and frequently crashes, leaving bad aftertaste. If only good things occur to an economy, Japanese economy have already trounced U.S. by now. Or U.S. stock market is hitting above Dow 20,000 by now.

Remember that the upswing of a sine-curve looks always exponential but it goes down eventually. And grows again. Again my point is that China is poorly prepared for any downturns. More so than any other economies in E. Asia.

[formosaplastics]

If China is "poorly prepared" and has not been doing a good job so far, then do you think today's Third World republics are better prepared and have been doing a better job than China? Again, you have to start acknowledging the simple of realities.

[formosaplastics]

Your opinion is not enough. Facts matter. China has a track record over the past 20 years that beats Third World republics. In addition, China today is growing faster today than Japan, Korea, Taiwan, etc. too., which have plateaued.

[formosaplastics]

All countries have a "growth curve." It's just that while Japan, Korea, etc. have hit their "maturity" stage after several decades of fast growth, China is still early in its "exponential" stage.

[formosaplastics]

Japan's economy could never overtake America's because Japan's population is less than half of America's (130 mil. vs. 285 mi.). In order for Japan's GDP to be greater than America's, the Japanese per-capita GDP would have to be around $100,000 per year instead of about $40,000. That just isn't going to happen. On the other hand, China's GDP is not limited by population size. A country's population size/labor pool is a major variable in determining a country's "production possibilities frontier" or maximum GDP potential. The more people a country has, the more economic output it can produce. One would naturally expect that if there are two First World countries and the first has a population of 100 mil. and the second has 50 mil., the first country's GDP would be roughly twice the size of the second's. There are other factors too such as whether or not the country's government implements pro-capitalist economic policies, and China's authoritarian government can clearly more expeditiously enact such policies than messy Third World legislatures can.