IS CHINA'S ECONOMIC BOOM A MYTH?

The New Republic ^ | Issue of 12/16/02 | Joshua Kurlantzick

[crystalk]

ping, crystalkery alert

[hove]

China is the next Japan. They will be an economic super power. But the combination of communism and Japan's achilles heel....corruption... will cause this giant to fall. And fall hard.

[kinghorse]

No myth.

[Frapster]

I'd just point out they are far more Catholic. And America's 'secularism' is a product of the last 40 years. The last 40 years get to rest on the laurels of the previous 200+ years of America being a Christian nation. I won't go into the inevitable squandering of our inheritance if we don't soon realize that 'secularizing' this country is not all it's cracked up to be.

[weikel]

Its is a myth more towards the interior of the country its no myth in the coastal region. The interior rural areas will be integrated more with the coastal economy as more infrastructure is built.

[Sci Fi Guy]

Not to argue a minor point, but that Franklin was a deist is debateable. If I remember correctly toward the end of his life Franklin wrote about God intervening in human affairs, which is not the view of deism.

Also I rememmber reading several years ago, an article in national review about the effects of protestantism in Latin America. It surprised me since Buckley is a good catholic. The Article talked about there being a theological economic lift. That Protestant churches with their decentralized power structure, emphasis on personal responsibility and personal study (i.e. everyone needs to read), would have a positive effect on the economy.

[weikel]

Deist can differ on the issue of "providence" ie gods hand in human affairs.

[TigerLikesRooster]

China suffers from huburis of its ruling elites. They ignores the reality of developing such vast territory with disparate regional histories.

In an all-out attempt to catch up with the major powers of today, they ignore that the best course of development is a slower growth of 5% or less. Phasing out socialist state economy is a time-consuming and painful process. The elimination of surplus farm labor is another explosive problem. China has tens of millions of them all hopping onto trains bound for big cities in the Eastern coast without having anybody waiting there to employ them or house them even temporarily. They just go there and hope that they will get jobs.

But the leadership of China is living a dream of China in 21st centurey high-tech society, joining WTO, being lionized by many Westeners as leaders of soon-to-be superpower. They successfully created the myth of "inevitable Chinese superpower" in near future. This is partly due to the willingness of the West to buy such myth based on centuries of folklores about China in Europe. For people with long memories, they sure hurry too much to make up for time lost in last 100 years.

But that is really dangerous. They let loose the system which does not have checks and balance to ensure smooth economic activities. Economy has many loopholes for state meddling and boundless corruption, which could be at its worst in banking systems. They just began to make some decent inroads into a market economy but they and their western sychopants are already euphoric about the economic superpower. When America business publications go so exhuberant, it usually means that something terrible is around the corner.

So much hype will create the level of expections which will turn into bitter disillusions when things turn sour.

[David]

Outstanding. Most important economic message of the day.

[Cicero]

Very interesting article, and extremely important, IMHO.

The first generation of Western investors in China all lost their shirts, because the Chinese simply expropriated everything. Then after a lull they started investing again, and everyone says the Chinese have mended their ways. But this article suggests that the rule of law is once again decaying. You can't have business without enforceable contracts, justly observed.

It wouldn't surprised me a bit if the present generation of investors in China get bitten again, and it would serve them right, profiteering on the backs of persecuted victims in the Laogai and helping to strengthen the country that is potentially our most dangerous enemy. The Chinese only like to see money flowing into their country. They hate to see it coming out.

[Engine82]

A friend who has a degree in international business and works to help develop infrastructure in third world countries told me last week the chinese economy is a "HOUSE OF CARDS". His words almost exactly match up with the words of the arthor.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Re #30

Businessmen can be the worst lemmings at times. They deathly fear "missing the boat", even if the boat will sink pretty soon. Since they operate in frequently uncertain environments, they tend to fall victims to herd mentality. Doing what everybody else does is often the best way of preserving their careers.

[FreePaul]

But where are you going to find a dead cat in china?

On the menu?

[crasher]

I read this article on the TNR site a couple days ago. Thought it was really good, and you might like it. Is this guy right?

[ellery]

bttt

[Zack Nguyen]

The only way it WON'T, will be if it becomes almost totally/officially Christian.

Agreed. China could just go from Godless Communism to a Godless capitalism. They might be more free but not more moral.

[HighRoadToChina]

"The Chinese economic miracle, in other words, is largely a house of cards. And, when it falls, the consequences could be catastrophic."

Let's help these Communists over the cliff with a total boycott of all "Made in China" products starting December 7, 2002. Instead of a day of infamy, let it be a day of awakening for America.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/800079/posts

[calenel]

Christianity is not the issue. What China, Japan, Europe, Mexico, Argentina and the rest of the crowd suffer from is an excess of Socialism.

[Sparta]

I'm more than ready to push Red China and soon to be ex-Senator Brown Roots off the proverbial cliff tomorrow.

[HighRoadToChina]

Communist China suffers from an excess of Communism and socialism. And a little religion will go a long way.