Posted on 12/04/2002 4:45:42 PM PST by knighthawk
PARIS--Georges Amsel is a prominent French researcher in atomic physics. As emeritus research director at France's Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique and adviser on proliferation issues to former French President Francois Mitterrand, Amsel was part of a small group of scientists that revealed the extent and risks of France-Iraq nuclear cooperation in the 1970s and 1980s.
In an interview with The Yomiuri Shimbun, Amsel said the new round of U.N. inspections will be crucial to ending the Iraqi crisis and will directly impact the way the North Korean nuclear issue is resolved.
The Yomiuri Shimbun: How can U.N. inspections help clear up doubts about Iraq's nuclear program?
Amsel: One should never forget that India, Pakistan and North Korea have signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have visited nuclear facilities in these countries regularly. But inspections have never prevented these nations from developing clandestine nuclear programs. As NPT rules limit where inspectors can go, inspectors found nothing in Iraq until post-Gulf War U.N. inspections in 1991.
The ongoing inspections must be conducted very strictly, and inspectors must be allowed to go everywhere and interview Iraqi engineers without witnesses. If these conditions are not met, inspections will only lead to false guarantees--the inspectors may not find anything, but that won't mean Iraq has nothing to hide. The quantity of enriched plutonium needed to make bomb is about the size of an orange. It's easy to hide in a country as big as Iraq.
Does that mean the inspections are unlikely to solve the crisis?
Iraq has been misleading the West for 10 years. The only guarantee against its weapons of mass destruction would be the inauguration of a pacifist regime. According to Hans Blix, the U.N. chief inspector, new inspections will take at least a year, which leaves Iraq some time. I'm afraid that in order to prevent any automatic use of force by the United States, the U.N. Security Council may not be strict enough with Iraq.
The current situation is very important for Japan. It will create a precedent that will determine the way the North Korean crisis is solved. The question of inspections is crucial. It will be impossible to impose conditions on North Korea that have not been imposed on Iraq. The Iraq crisis has taken on more global dimensions since the revelation of North Korea's nuclear program. It will be a test of whether a peaceful solution is possible to the problem of weapons of mass destruction. Japan should be very aware of what's going on. It will have a direct impact on the crisis with North Korea.
In the 1970s, France played an important role in the Iraqi nuclear program by building two research reactors, known as Osirak 1 and 2. What may remain of this program?
Osirak was a very powerful research reactor, an exact copy of the reactor the French built in their nuclear research center in Saclay. Although the French government always has denied it, Osirak 1 was powerful enough to produce three to five kilograms a year of so-called military plutonium.
This reactor was destroyed by Israeli planes in 1981, but France already had delivered up to 14 kilograms of highly enriched uranium to Iraq. Later, these were recovered by the IAEA, but since then we haven't known precisely what became of this uranium.
Do you think Iraq could get a stock of plutonium?
It's clear Iraq has no more means of producing military plutonium, but it could have bought it from another state. Tons of plutonium were left in former Soviet republics like Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine after the partial dismantling of the Russian nuclear arsenal. In these states, the military and scientists are often poorly paid, and due to social disruption and the power of the mafia, they represent a real proliferation risk. Tons of plutonium produced by civilian nuclear plants also are circulating around the world. It is highly possible that Iraq tried to buy some.
It is generally said that this plutonium, which contains only 25 to 30 percent of plutonium 239, cannot be used to make a bomb. However, 20 years ago the United States succeeded in exploding such a bomb. As it is a dirty device whose explosion is uncertain, it would not be very effective in terms of deterrence, but it would be enough for a terrorist attack. Only a few dozens kilograms are needed to make an explosive device. As recent events have proven, it would be difficult to prevent a terrorist group from planting a nuclear device in the heart of a city.
Another use for plutonium: It is a superconductor at low temperature. Not that you would want to put plutonium in your superconducting power controller.
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