I think where we stand on this right now is where I expected us to be right about now.
Bush still intends to put Cheney up for the 2004 nomination for VP. That's what the chattering classes are told. Bush and Rove have to have gamed this out by now and are almost certain that Rice is their best chance to hold on to the White House in 2008. All things being equal, I believe Bush is a good bet to win reelection in 2004.
Assuming that's the case, Bush, being an MBA, will being working on a succession strategy. I don't think his brother wants the job. I think his brother wants to be a Senator. Besides, two Bushes back to back won't be accepted by the nation. This is why I think Rice will be picked to replace Cheney: succession planning, her raw talent, and her demographic appeal all argue for her as Cheney's replacement.
I do not believe that Rice will run for Boxer's seat in CA. Rice is an executive, not a legislator. In the end, that's another reason I see her bypassing the standard "up through the ranks" mode of political advancement to her appointment to the VP post or nomination by Bush in 2004.
Bush needs to strike at the heart of the Democratic coalition in order to secure his party's political future in the near term. Rice does this for him in a way that no other candidate can.
This would be a strategic coup of the first order. Of course, the best part would be to watch Condi dispatch the Hildebeast.
Be Seeing You,
Chris