[B-Chan]

Although I'm clueless with regard to macroeconomics, I tend to agree. In any free market, the actual cost of labor always tends downward; since capital is always seeking the lowest labor cost possible, jobs will move to areas where labor is cheapest (the Third World) or low-wage workers will be imported to replace high-wage domestic labor (H1B visas). Eventually this race to the bottom ends; as the cost of labor approaches equity with the value of product manufactured, capital seeks "free" labor -- i.e. slavery or indentured servitude. Hence the explosion in prison industry in places like China; the "wage" paid to these workers is simply the cost of keeping them alive. Slavery is the ultimate minimum wage.

In societies that forbid slavery, the need for cheap labor instead drives the market for automation. In time, all jobs that can be performed by robots will be performed by robots, as consumers have repeatedly shown that they prefer lower prices even at the cost of a shoddier product or poorer service; most folks would rather pay a buck fifty for a crappy fast-food burger than $8.50 (plus tip) for a handmade sandwich; most people prefer to sweat out a cheapo airline fare instead of paying top dollar for an upgrade. Skilled labor and professions are resistant to automation, but in time even such high-skill jobs as airline piloting and tool-and-diemaking will be automated. In the end, only jobs that require human creativity (art, writing, cooking, design, etc.) will remain; all products will be manufactured by overseas prison labor or domestic machinery. The prices for goods will drop dramatically -- but without jobs and income, who will buy them?

I don't know the answer. I'm all for less taxes, less regulation, and the right to trade with anybody I please, but I see no end to the trend of lower wages, more automation, and fewer jobs. Perhaps automation and recycling technology will increase in sophistication to the point where it will be cheaper to simply give away most goods rather than to sell them; at that point, most people could simply "retire" and do what they wanted to all day rather than work. Yet that sounds suspiciously utopian -- if a thing seems too good to be true, it probably is.

So what's the answer to the global economic question? A return to feudalism of some sort? Autarky a la Francoist Spain? I'm hardly intelligent enough to even ask, let alone answer. All I know is that people need more than mere jobs; they need the satisfaction of doing something useful. "Man does not live by bread alone..."

[jonno]

In the end, only jobs that require human creativity (art, writing, cooking, design, etc.) will remain; all products will be manufactured by overseas prison labor or domestic machinery. The prices for goods will drop dramatically -- but without jobs and income, who will buy them?

What???

Who is going to design and build these hi-tech robots? Who is going to build the computer systems to run them?

Yes, labor costs trend downward for a simple reason - it doesn't make any sense to pay someone $20 an hour to operate a screwdriver. Instead take that same "skilled" worker and have them perform "skilled work" (see above robots).

Regards,