Posted on 11/17/2002 7:54:08 AM PST by GraniteStateConservative
The Kansas City Star
After electing a U.S. senator, as well as the first GOP-controlled state House in half a century, Missouri Republicans already are looking at their next target:
Governor.
"Bob is next, Bob is next," hundreds of giddy Republicans chanted at their election-night victory celebration last week in St. Louis. Bob is Democratic Gov. Bob Holden, who faces re-election in 2004.
"He is the weakest governor we have ever seen," said Ann Wagner, chairman of the Missouri Republican Party. "He lacks leadership on many levels, from start to finish."
Bring 'em on, an upbeat Holden responded.
"I'm looking forward to it," he said in Kansas City. "I'm planning on it."
Sure, the economy has turned south in Missouri, Holden said. But it's turned south in a lot of states. Any governor would have had a tough time the last couple of years.
The state, the governor said, balanced its budget and kept its AAA bond rating.
"Missouri is in better shape than Kansas or Illinois or Iowa," he said.
But members of both parties acknowledge that the first two years of Holden's term have been hard on his standing with voters. Republicans and Democrats said about 35 percent of Missourians hold a favorable view of Holden, while some 40 percent view him unfavorably.
Those are hardly the types of numbers politicians want as they gear up for a re-election drive.
More evidence of Holden's standing came during the fall campaign. Holden rarely was seen campaigning for any of the state's Democratic candidates, including U.S. Sen. Jean Carnahan, because he was seen as a political liability, members of both parties said.
In fact, in some districts Republicans used Holden to undermine Democratic prospects. That happened in central Missouri, where veteran state Rep. Bill Gratz, a Democrat, was running for state Senate.
The GOP paid for campaign mailings and radio and television ads that touted Gratz and Holden as a team.
"Republicans used the governor as a tool," Gratz said. "He's not real popular, he's not real strong, and the economy is not good."
Gratz said Democratic candidates in outstate Missouri were hurt by the governor's support for using tax dollars to build a new St. Louis baseball stadium and renovate the two Kansas City stadiums. Also frustrating voters, members of both parties agreed, was Holden's million-dollar inaugural last year during the same month he cut $64 million from the state budget.
Other controversies include Holden's decision to grant collective bargaining rights to 30,000 state workers without legislative approval.
Gratz said he thought Holden's re-election prospects were dim. When asked whether any fellow Democrats are likely to challenge the governor, Gratz said: "I hope so."
May Scheve, chairwoman of the Missouri Democratic Party, took exception to Gratz's criticisms. She said the governor was besieged with invitations to campaign in districts statewide.
"We were just overwhelmed...with requests," she said. "People can relate to the governor."
But in one key race for a state Senate seat representing Platte and Buchanan counties, Democrat Glenda Kelly acknowledged that Holden never stumped for her, although he made several official visits to the area.
Why wasn't Holden asked to appear alongside Kelly?
"I don't know," she said. "We had a campaign plan. We had a schedule. And he was always very supportive."
For Holden, finding hope in the future is tricky.
He will face an uphill battle in his next two years as governor. For the first time since 1954, the House will be controlled by Republicans, who also seized control of the Senate last year for the first time in decades.
"It will be very interesting to see how he deals with this whole new world," said John Hancock, executive director of the Missouri Republican Party.
The trends for Democrats don't appear promising. The GOP is about to assume control of both U.S. Senate seats and the General Assembly. Five of the nine congressional seats are in Republican hands, although Democrats continue to hold five of six statewide offices in Jefferson City.
"Democrats in Missouri are looking at some hard times," said George Connor, a political scientist at Southwest Missouri State University.
Some point out that the Democrats are lucky to have controlled the governorship for much of the 1990s. Mel Carnahan won in 1992 at least partly because Republican nominee Bill Webster ran into major legal problems.
Holden came into office by beating Republican Jim Talent by 20,000 votes, a margin of less than 1 percent. Many Republicans think a large sympathy vote for Mel Carnahan, who was running posthumously for the U.S. Senate, carried over to Holden and helped him win.
Prior to 1993, Republicans controlled the governor's office for three consecutive terms.
Holden may need help in the form of Republican slip-ups if he is to move back into favor.
"There would have to be some sort of scandal on the Republican side" for Holden to emerge as a political force, Connor said.
But David Webber, a political scientist at the University of Missouri-Columbia, pointed to a long-held axiom of American politics: Political fortunes often change quickly.
"If the Republicans are too ambitious, then he can come across as the more reasonable one, which would help him," he said.
Webber said that Holden needs to come across as a leader with a specific, easily grasped agenda.
The governor may have one handy strategy available to him. He could try to pull off a Harry Truman and run against the Republican-controlled General Assembly, some Democrats noted. That's what Truman did in his presidential run in 1948 when he ran against the "do nothing" Republican Congress.
"He has an incredible fire in the belly for the next two years," Scheve said. "He will have the energy and enthusiasm to get things accomplished in the face of some really dismal prospects."
Already, though, there's speculation that some Democrats, frustrated by the loss of the House and Holden's sluggish standing, may turn to another candidate in 2004. Among those mentioned: Auditor Claire McCaskill, Lt. Gov. Joe Maxwell, Attorney General Jay Nixon and former Gov. Roger Wilson.
A primary could undermine Democratic prospects. Republicans, meantime, are hoping to avoid their own intraparty competition, although that, too, will be difficult. Said to be standing in the wings are Secretary of State Matt Blunt, U.S. Rep. Kenny Hulshof of Columbia and Senate President Pro Tem Peter Kinder.
"Our biggest problem is we have a bunch of these young leaders...looking at the current governor and saying, `I can do better than that,' " Hancock said. "And they're right."
The Star's Kit Wagar contributed to this report.
To reach Steve Kraske, political correspondent, call (816) 234-4312 or send e-mail to skraske@kcstar.com.
To reach Kevin Murphy, call (816) 234-4464 or send e-mail to kmurphy@kcstar.com.
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