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Just curious, how do other Freepers see the economy's real state? From my anectdotal view, it's looking grim ... not to get too specific but I know of more layoffs on the way in November and December in the Atlanta area ..

Well...

If one were to opine about the sorry state of the economy prior to 11/5, then about 99.9999999999999999999999999% of the FReepers would have been accusing that person of being an pro-RAT shill, and helping Daschle.

Now that we are all safe in our Pubbie Paradise, I will state again that this economy sucks whale ass. Debt, debt, debt, and even some debt are in the process of disemboweling any chance for a meaningful recovery. The government wrote a half-tril worth of debt this year, every local government is coming down from their late-90s estimates on tax revenues, and going into debt. Real estate has been outstripping wages by better than 15% nationwide for some time, and that is going to be fugly when that bubble goes kablooie. 2002 is going to be the year where cash-out refis for a single year beat the entire last decade for such things. That's more debt. Manufacturers of big ticket items (autos, electronic gizmos) are offering 0% down for the forseeable future. Mortgages are going for the inflation rate, and that bald guy that CNBS worships keeps printing more dough.

So, what happens when inflation ticks up? Interest rates rise, and all that is going well will slam into reverse. All that is not going well will really hit their stride.

When you have to give away your cars, major employers are announcing double digit employee cuts, your currency is being sold, and you governments are drowning in red ink, that seems to be trouble.

Then again, the Pubbies are running everything, and most of my reading on the subject (on FR) states that we are about to enter full employment, free money, no crime, life expectancy to 175, gold paved streets, an SUV in every house, every house a mansion, racial harmony, everlasting peace (once we whack Iraq), the end of drought, the cure for cancer, and the final death of telemarketers.

How do you see the economy?

I really enjoy these wrap-ups because Puplava and Rohry are a refreshing antidote to the spin and blather coming out of the mainstream financial press ... my take on the economy is that there are serious problems. We are still in denial about some things. The government economic numbers are being manipulated in a manner similar to corporate earnings, IMHO. A good example is the unemployment rate. They don't count anyone as unemployed who has either stopped looking for work or is working part-time at a fraction of their former salary. Then of course the weekly new unemployment claims are "seasonally adjusted", whatever that means. The bottom line is that these numbers should be viewed with extreme skepticism, as they can be manipulated just as earnings can.

Last week a survey of CEO's came out that said most expect to fire staff next year ... not a good thing. And once interest rates start to go up again, and they will, you can stick a fork in the re-fi boom (and probably the housing market as well). My guess is that we are likely to face another recession, beginning either 1st quarter 03 or early spring. And I am no Democrat shill, just calling it like I see it.