Posted on 11/13/2002 11:45:01 PM PST by Holden Magroin
A newly minted Republican majority in the Texas House of Representatives may strengthen the national GOP's advantage in the 2004 House elections.
With Republicans now in control of all three levers of government in the Lone Star State, national strategists believe that legislators will reopen the Congressional redistricting plan put into place by a federal court for the 2002 elections. That could spell electoral doom for several Democrats.
The court plan, which largely protected the state's 17Democratic incumbents, was a major blow to Republicans, especially new House Majority Leader TomDeLay (R-Texas), who had predicted a six- to eight-seat GOP gain from Texas' redistricting process alone.
But while Texas lawmakers failed their constitutionally mandated responsibility to draw a new map in 2001, the federal court made its plan temporary, giving legislators the right to revise it if they can reach consensus.
And Texas isn't the only state where redistricting may be revisited.
"I wouldn't be at all surprised if some state legislatures revised redistricting plans that were used in this election, especially in states where there were court-enacted plans," said Tim Storey, redistricting specialist for the National Conference of State Legislatures.
Storey said the likeliest candidates would be states where last week's elections put the legislature and governorship in the hands of one party - like Texas, Oklahoma, South Carolina and New Mexico - that did not have total control prior to Nov. 5.
But he cautioned that such adjustments are rare.
After the 1980 Census and the 1990 Census, any new boundaries after the first post-Census election were drawn by courts in response to Voting Rights Act cases.
Still, Texas Republicans are pressing for action.
JimEllis, a close ally and fundraiser for the second-ranking House Republican, said "the chances are good" that the Congressional map will be redrawn before the 2004 election.
"There are a lot of people who want the [Legislature] to do that," said Ellis.
OtherRepublicans were more insistent.
"The worst-case scenario for Democrats was postponed but it can't be avoided," said one Republican leadership source, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
"Some Texas Democrats are going to have to make some decisions about whether they want to retire or whether they want to continue to serve as Republicans."
Texas Democratic Reps. Ralph Hall and Charlie Stenholm, two of the leading conservatives in their Caucus, are often mentioned by Republicans as potential party-switchers.
Prior to the 2002 election, Hall told Roll Call he would support the more conservative choice for Speaker if his was the deciding vote. Stenholm has flatly rejected the idea.
Lone Star Democrats argue that given the truncated nature of the Texas legislative session,Republicans would be doing voters a disservice by taking up redistricting again.
"Given the magnitude of the issues facing the state of Texas right now, the new Republican majority would have a hard time explaining to the public why they were consuming a considerable chunk of time on a partisan power grab," said oneTexas Democratic Congressional aide.
The Legislature meets for 100 days every two years, with the next session expected to begin on Jan. 14, 2003.
Stenholm cautioned that "a lot of communities get involved when you start redistricting strictly for the purpose of political gamesmanship."
The exact approach Republicans will take on redistricting - and how Democrats will respond - remains unclear.
Alexis DeLee, a spokeswoman for state Rep. Tom Craddick (R), who is widely assumed to be the next state House Speaker, said that there have been no specific discussions about crafting a new Congressional map.
What is clear, however, is that Texas Republicans feel that the 2002 election highlighted their growing dominance at all levels of state politics and provided them a mandate to move forward.
Republican Gov.Rick Perry won a resounding victory over free-spending businessman TonySanchez (D), while state AttorneyGeneral JohnCornyn (R) defeated former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk (D) for the open Senate seat.
Republicans picked up 16 seats in the state House and three in the state Senate, and now control both chambers for the first time since Reconstruction.
Their winning streak did not extend to the Congressional delegation, however, as all 17 Democratic incumbents were re-elected.
Republicans re-elected their 13 Members and added two more in open seats created by redistricting.
Democrats' ability to maintain their hold on the delegation in the 2002 election was largely credited to a favorable redistricting decision by a three-judge federal panel in November 2001.
That decision, which was protested vehemently byRepublicans, affirmed a state court map that had been redrawn by a Democratic judge after his initial lines created an uproar among the members of his own party.
The first map drawn by state District Judge Paul Davis would have severely endangered the re-election chances of Stenholm as well as fellow Democratic Reps. JimTurner, Max Sandlin, Chet Edwards and MartinFrost. It also placed Democratic Reps.Ken Bentsen and Sheila Jackson-Lee in the same Houston-based district.
Bentsen eventually ran unsuccessfully for the Senate nomination.
Soon after, under intense pressure fromstate House Speaker Pete Laney (D), Frost and others, Davis reversed himself and released the basic outline of the map that was employed in the 2002 election.
Ellis said that the current map should be redrawn, arguing that "Hispanics, African-Americans and Republicans were underrepresented under that map."
No new Hispanic- or black-majority seats were created for the 2002 election, even though the 2000 Census found that both populations had grown in Texas.
The Texas Democratic aide disagreed with Ellis' interpretation, arguing that "the map preserves voters' choices in districts and the strength and seniority of our delegation."
Aside from DeLay and retiring Majority Leader Dick Armey (R-Texas), Frost currently serves as Democratic Caucus chairman.
"Any change in the current Congressional districts is likely to mean change in all the districts, including those held byRepublicans," the Democratic Congressional aide warned.
Republicans will not revive the first map proposed by the state judge, Ellis said, due to potential regression problems in black representation in the 25th district.
"There are some real good parts to that map," however, Ellis added.
Regardless of how the map is redrawn, Texas Democrats are likely to struggle to maintain their edge in the delegation in 2004.
The biggest factor working against them is the presence of President Bush, the former Texas governor, at the top of the ballot.
If Bush maintains his current level of popularity, severalDemocrats, especially Stenholm and Edwards, could struggle even if the district lines stay the same.
"There are more than enough Republicans in both of those districts for a GOPer to win," said Ellis.
"The [Republican] candidates ran decent races [in 2002], but there wasn't enough national support," he added. "That will change in 2004."
Stenholm defeated Abilene City Councilman Rob Beckham (R) 51 percent to 48 percent.
Edwards beat 2000 nominee Ramsey Farley (R) 52 percent to 47 percent.
Even some Democrats acknowledged that both men face uphill challenges in their conservative districts in 2004.
"It is going to be extremely difficult for Democrats to hold onto the Edwards and Stenholm seats in a year withBush at the top of the ticket," said one top Democratic consultant. "Given what happened in [the 2002] election those two Democrats would start out the list as most endangered."
Stenholm's message to potential GOP candidates? "Come on in, the water's fine."
Edwards spokesman Dave Helfert added that both Members are more resilient thanRepublicans are willing to admit. "Stenholm and Chet have been written off more times than a three-martini lunch, and they're still here,"Helfert said.
Josh Kurtz contributed to this report.
It's actually 140 days, but the governor can call for 30-day sessions for particular purposes such as redistricting. Republicans could come to a special session with maps already drawn.
Could never understand why Charlie hasn`t swiched.
Sorry, Charlie, but we don't need your liberal *ss in the GOP!
Per the American Conservative Union, Charlie Stenholm's ranking for '00 was 52;
for '01, 64, putting him only slightly to the right of, say, Sander Levin or Chuck Schumer.
Ralph Hall, now, has a lifetime rating of 83, but was 88 in '00, and 96 in '01: he sees how the wind is blowing in his district, and he's blowing to the right along with it!
DG have you found anything else about the 2/3rds requirment? I've seen it mentioned for both the house and senate bodies as requirments for redistricting... don't know.
Republicans absolutely have to do this, and ignore the whining Democrats. If we have to cut a deal to create another hispanic seat, I'd make that deal in a heartbeat.
The current map has Republicans like John Culberson representing a seat that is a 90%-10% Republican. Put some of his district and Tom Delay's district into Chris Bell's district (Ken Bentsen's former seat), and Chris is toast.
It's amazing that without fulltime government assisance the sun even rises in Texas. :)
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