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Outstanding analysis. Several comments:

Arizona -- McCain's more likely to retire than switch parties. 2001 would have been the logical time to switch, to position himself for the 2004 Democrat nomination. Barring unforeseen circumstances, his time has passed, which he acknowledges freely and publicly. The State has become competitive for the Democrats based on Social Security and Mexican immigration. I wouldn't assume the Republicans will win it.

Georgia -- Clearly, Miller is not going to switch parties and he's too popular to defeat at this juncture. It is questionable whether he could survive an investigation into his personal affairs, but the Bush Administration is hardly likely to lead such an effort. At one time, Miller had national aspirations before being humiliated by Clinton. He would be a natural for Transportation or Education secretary, if he felt the job was big enough to justify giving up a safe Senate seat. That's the way to win this naturally Republican seat.

Iowa -- Grassley's independence works in his favor in Iowa.

Illinois -- I agree that Fitzgerald is toast unless the Democrats run an African-American. He may be anyway. This state has a tradition of turning out incumbents, even prominent ones.

Indiana -- Bayh has national aspirations, as did his father, though one assumes he's too conventional and shrewd to give up a reasonably safe Senate seat to run.

Louisiana -- Breaux is not going to lose. If he were, he'd accept a cabinet post in a heartbeat.

North Carolina -- It's now or never for Edwards in terms of national office. It might be easier to secure the Democrat nomination for President in a year when Bush is expected to win than to win re-election to the Senate.

Nevada -- This is a true bellwether state in national elections though the Republican association with the Christian right works against it.

New York -- I think Giuliani could win a race against Schumer but the question becomes: To what end, as junior senator with a Republican in the White House when Giuliani is perceived as too liberal on social issues to win the Republican nomination? He might prefer a business career or a latter switch to the Democrat party for a run in 2008.

Pennsylvainia -- With the Vice Presidency seemingly closed to him, Tom Ridge would be a natural for this seat if Colin Powell doesn't return to private life, thereby opening State for Rumsfeld and Defense for Ridge. If Cheney were incapacitated, Ridge would be a strong candidate for Vice Presidency, right to life or no right to life, as would Rumsfeld. If Bush was trying to position a Republican to win in 2008, Ridge would get the nod. If he were looking for a wise man, a la Ford's choice of Rockefeller, it would be Rumsfeld.

South Dakota -- I think Daschle will run for President in 2004 and then run a think tank or university. The Republicans should recapture the seat if they can stop the dead and phantom voters from casting ballots at the current rate.

Washington -- Only a major terrorist incident would reverse this state's relentless drift toward the left. Currently, a Republican is only marginally more electable to statewide office here than in California. Given the tolerance of Islamists in the state and the quality of the Seattle police force, this is by no means unlikely.

The Republicans could pick up a seat in Georgia by appointing Miller to a cabinet post.