Iraqi War Planning And Strategy Show Detailed Preparations

Defense & Foreign Affairs Daily | November 8, 2002 | By Yossef Bodansky, GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs Senior Editor

[Grut]

This sounds like overkill; all Iraq has to do to bring Israel into the war is invade Jordan. The Israelis will immediately move across Jordan's western border to take up forward positions, and the Arab-Israeli conflict will be off and running once again.

Also, Iraq has no need to attack Saudi Arabia and Syria; their neutrality is already in hand. Iraq will attack Jordan and Kuwait, use Kuwait as a launch pad for missile strikes against Qatar and concentrate on acquiring American POWs as bargaining chips. After doing this, Saddam will be the Boy Hero of the Arab street and bordering states will be unable to aid us - for fear of popular unrest - even if they want to, which is doubtful.

It is possible for us to lose this war, strategically, for want of a way to apply our power to Saddam, tactically.

[Uncle Miltie]

According to senior Arab security officials who visited Baghdad in early July 2002, Saddam already "put the final touches to a plan for a counterattack that involves the use of biological and chemical weapons.

Impossible. We've heard from the Democrats, Saddam, and Scott Ritter that there is no proof he has bio or chem weapons.

[Vermont Lt]

I guess the "suprise" weapon that Iraq would use is a nuke. If they hit Tel Aviv, I hope Saddam can get to his desert bunker quickly. Because I think Sharon may have more than one to hit back with.

This sounds like stories my kid writes. They are Ok at first, but then they go off and get too cute for their own good.

But, who am I to judge.

[Stultis]

"formidable assault grouping to take on Israel via Syria and Jordan" == acres of corpses amid smoking metal hulks 10 miles inside of Jordan. Does this idiot really believe that Saddam is going to move assault forces across, what, 300 miles of open dessert, or even try to?

[BigBobber]

An enduring or defensive strategy aimed to ensure Saddam Hussein’s survival while ensnaring the US in heavy attrition and killing of Iraqi Arab civilians...

Saddam is a real jewel isn't he? He's willing to sacrifice thousands of Iraqi civilians to save his own butt.

I sure hope there is a Hellfire missle out there already with Saddam's name and address on it.

[Uncle Miltie]

Isn't it the case that as soon as Saddam puts an army on a road, it will be blown to bits by B-52s, F-16s, F-15s, F-18s, A-10s, B-2s, B1-B's, Predators, and anything else that flies? I don't see how he makes it ten miles past his border before his force becomes a blazing pile of twisted metal.

[ThePythonicCow]

Bump - there's some good stuff in this article. It's author, Yossef Bodansky, seems to have long standing expertise here. Some of his books, from Amazon:

The High Cost of Peace: How Washington's Middle East Policy Left America Vulnerable to Terrorism


ISLAMIC ANTI-SEMITISM AS A POLITICAL INSTRUMENT


Bin Laden: The Man Who Declared War on America

[tonyinv]

The Iraqi Air Force intensified its training, particularly long-range strikes with aerial refueling hardly attempted for a decade.

This was the line that did it for me, this is pure fantasy. Does anyone believe that that refueling plane will last more than 5 seconds aloft? Has this guy forgetten how fast the US had control of the skies in the whole region back in '91?

[Aric2000]

If only Saddam were this moronic.

Attack Israel with this surprise weapon and half the middle east wil cease to exist.

Attack Israel and put her in such a position that she cannot win and the nukes will fly. There will be nothing left for the Arabs to call a palestinian state.

If Saddam wants to start Armageddon, this is the perfect thing to do, but I don't think he is even that stupid. What's a ruler without anyone to rule?

[knews_hound]

A long, convoluted and sometimes insightful analysis.

The big question I have in assuming any of this as fact is, that the entire defensive posture he takes and the offence he is proposing is based on the silly assumption that the US will sit idly by and let any or all of this happen?

Tank units attacking Isreal across the desert?

yeah right, THATS gonna happen.

Moving to a facility in the middle of the desert?

Well, he can certainly TRY to move....but I think there are some F18 Jockeys who will have something to say about it.

The one worring thing in the whole piece is the strategy of assulting Isreal with Nukes or other NBC weapons.

Since they can be delivered via any low tech method, be it a truck, suitcase or Scud, there is a high probablity of him being able to pull it off.

HOWEVER...To do that, he must be able to communicate, and I sincerely doubt there will be a single Radio/TV/Satellite signal that will get out without our allowing it to.

As a former DARPA soldier, I know about some of the toys we have and I personally do not see that happening.

But....It only takes one.

Bump for wider distribution.

Cheers

knews hound

[tonyinv]

Ah..thats the catch though, he doesn't care about ruling people. If we are to belive the author, Saddam is prepared (if not eager) to have hundreds of thousands of "his people" killed. This is personal, this is all about him surviving. This is about his legacy throughout the Arab world.

Even if Israel or the US nukes Bahgdad, that doesn't gaurentee Saddam's destruction. And you can bet that even after we capture or kill him, the rest of the Arab world will never believe that we've actually done it. No matter what evidence we may present.

[Blueflag]

Forces tend to mass before they move. Forces communicate. Coordinated motion of large forces is always detectable, eventually, especially when we own the airspace over their plain of advance.

They cannot surprise is with a move of conventional forces. Period.

If Saddam's forces appear to threaten 'friendly' neighbors, they can count the time left as an effective fighting force in hours.

Suicide nuke delivery (strapped to a supersonic, one-way, low level MiG) is the greatest threat in my mind.

[Cachelot]

It is possible for us to lose this war, strategically, for want of a way to apply our power to Saddam, tactically.

It's possible to lose any war. But this one is winnable in roughly five minutes. It only takes one mirv from a well-placed boomer :).

There is no "want" of ways to apply power.

[finnman69]

I thinkit's safe to say the mineute Iraq tried invading Jordan or kuwait he would be bombed immediately non-stop.

[Cachelot]

No matter what evidence we may present.

How about his head on a stake in Jerusalem? Accompanied by the heads of a selection of particularly obnoxious arab leaders, plus Mecca turned into a glass ashtray? Think that would sort of do it?

[LadyDoc]

This assumes Syria and Iran will go along with Sadam.

Syria just voted with us in the UN. It is a terrorist state, and secular. But the leader knows who is going to win, and is not suicidal.

Iran is still run by the mullahs, but the people keep voting in moderate leaders. One hundred thousand people demonstrated in sympathy with the US after 911. I don't think the government would be able to push their people into joining Iraq: remember many thousands of families lost loved ones in the Iran Iraq war...

As for terrorists here: they can cause problems, but despite the hype about the sniper, one doubts all the thugs they are recruiting in jail are suicidal. They may indeed have better luck with students like Jihadd Johnny. But one difference between here and Europe is that they do not have arab ghettos to hide in. Most Arabs in the US are integrated into our society, and our arab population includes many Christians and Muslims who came here to flea the despots at home.

[uncbob]

Iraq will attack Jordan and Kuwait

With what all those tanks that got destroyed in 91
Or the ones that probably had no maintenace in 10 years or the ones left that will get creamed trying to cross the desert

[uncbob]

This was the line that did it for me, this is pure fantasy. Does anyone believe that that refueling plane will last more than 5 seconds aloft?

Or that the pilots won't be defecting to Iran before their butts are shot off.

[ThePythonicCow]

The big question I have in assuming any of this as fact is, that the entire defensive posture he takes and the offence he is proposing is based on the silly assumption that the US will sit idly by and let any or all of this happen?

You suggest that it's not fact because it can't happen -- the U.S. would stop it.

But I am willing to grant that it is fact that Saddam is saying and doing these things. He is determined, first and foremost, to not go quietly in the night. If he doesn't go down in history as the great leader of a new empire, he will at least go down as the great leader whose courage gave birth to a new empire.

He reminds me of a woodchuck, cornered, teeth chattering, that turns and attacks the farmer with the loaded shotgun, and in so doing, ensures its death.

Saddam is feeling the preasure. Observe the dates of this latest effort - Nov 5. On that date, the terms of the final U.N. resolution were clear, and Bush's victory in both the U.S. elections and the Security Council eminent. That resolution grants a variety of powers to the inspectors, which Saddam cannot abide by. He also sees the continual, intentionally leaked, buildup of U.S. forces.

He is scared, and he is huffing and puffing like a blow fish, gathering up as much power as he can, in order to deliver as much destruction as possible.

It is an escalating battle of nerves. As Saddam becomes more and more frantic, he will reveal more and more to our intelligence, and increasingly risk the wrong move that enables us to achieve overwhelming victory on our terms.