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Why Doug Forrester, R-NJ, LOST and LOST Badly
11.07.02 | Rick Shaftan

Posted on 11/07/2002 4:19:30 PM PST by Coleus

WHY FORRESTER LOST - AND LOST BADLY…

Rick Shaftan

Liberal “experts” attempt to alibi Doug Forrester’s humiliating defeat saying it was because he was “too” conservative even though across the nation, conservatives like Norm Coleman, Jim Talent, Saxby Chambliss, Wayne Allard and of course Scott Garrett won unexpected or larger than expected victories.

Forrester lost badly because he never connected with New Jersey’s largest group of swing voters - “Reagan Democrats” - conservative Catholics who live along Routes 3, 17, 46 and the Parkway. And Republicans will continue to lose as long as they believe that being pro-abortion is the only way to win these voters.

Instead, judging by the campaigns and candidates Republicans have nominated over the past decade, one would think that the “swing” voter in New Jersey is a liberal woman whose can trace her ancestry to the Mayflower. Nothing could be farther from the truth.

No Republican has won a vote majority in this state since George Bush got 55 percent against Michael Dukakis in 1988. And in that time, conservative Catholic towns like Secaucus, Bloomfield, Lyndhurst and Clifton have gone from producing 3-2 Republican majorities in statewide elections to 3-2 Democratic majorities.

Now if you listen to the “experts” who have blown election after election in this state, you would think that the way to bring back Republican victories in these towns is for Republicans to move even farther to the left. To the contrary, for Republicans to win in politically marginal areas like New Jersey, they must move back to the conservative base, embrace conservative issues - not run from them - and energize the base. Consider this.

1. While Republicans around the country were making the case for GOP Senate control by attacking liberal judges, Doug Forrester actually said he would vote against conservative judges supported by President Bush - and never once attacked Lautenberg for supporting a host of leftist jurists, including those who took “under God” out of the Pledge of Allegiance.

2. Republican Party bosses and academic “experts” like David Rebovich say that conservative pro-Life voters “have no place to go” and therefore can be ignored by Republicans. But many pro-Life voters are Democrats (ditto for gun owners). Forrester, ignoring reality, got into a well-publicized spat with New Jersey Right to Life and saw his lead among pro-Life voters drop from 56-32 to 46-38 in two weeks, without any increase among pro-abortion voters. No Republican should win less than 80 percent of the pro-Life vote. If Forrester had won 80 percent of the pro-Life vote, he would be Senator-Elect today.

3. No one has yet explained how “right-wing extremist” Scott Garrett won a higher percentage than Forrester in the allegedly “socially moderate” 5th Congressional District. And don’t look for the answer in the press or from Dr. Rebovich, who always seems to be wrong - they’re still in shock.

4. Inexplicably, Forrester not once referred to Lautenberg as a liberal (neither did Haytaian in 1994 - another losing race in spite of a massive national GOP trend), even though the former and future Senator had among the highest liberal ratings in the Senate - always in the 95-100 percent range. Polling indicates that conservatives outnumber liberals in New Jersey by 2-1. But the Forrester campaign seems to have foolishly believed those numbers were reversed and that they, in fact, were really running in Greenwich Village.

5. Our polling in a variety of towns indicated a carefully targeted Democratic campaign to identify Forrester as a “right-wing conservative” among liberals. Forrester’s defensive response was to tell conservatives that he was in fact a liberal, rather than to tell conservatives that Lautenberg was one. If you’re going to be attacked as a conservative, you might as well get the upside. And that didn’t happen because Forrester was more afraid of being attacked than energizing the conservative Republican base that, outside of the 5th CD, stayed home.

6. Forrester was the only Senate candidate targeted for defeat by Sarah Brady who lost - coincidentally also the only one who never filled out an NRA questionnaire and therefore was not on the little orange postcard that the NRA sent out in other states (or the one sent promoting Scott Garrett).

7. Forrester focused his message on “integrity” (whatever that means - we are dealing with politicians here) and the “debate on debates.” By highlighting Lautenberg’s supposedly being afraid to debate they only lowered expectations. When Lautenberg held his own (all he had to do was not drool on TV) Forrester lost any remaining rationale for his candidacy.

8. The centerpiece of the post-Torricelli campaign was an endorsement by “Uncle Tom” Kean, who has not endorsed a winning candidate in a competitive race since 1985 (unless you count Bill Clinton in 1996 or Rush Holt in 1998). The Forrester campaign should have looked at Kean’s record back in 1987 at the height of his “popularity” when he endorsed 10 GOP State Senate candidates in tight races and all 10 lost (he also “un-endorsed” 3 GOP Senators, all of whom won).

Republicans continue to lose because of the leftward drift, not in spite of it. And an even bigger problem is the perception that the party is anti-Catholic. Running “Republicans” who continue to emphasize how pro-abortion they are doesn’t help. Even non-pro-Life Catholics perceive “pro-choice” Republicans as having latent anti-Catholic prejudices. The election returns back that up.

It’s been 30 years since Republicans ran a Roman Catholic in a state that is majority Catholic - that’s just dumb. And the drop in GOP percentages is not just a New Jersey problem - with “pro-choice Republicans” at the helm, Republicans have taken a major nosedive in Catholic suburbs from Boston to St. Paul in the last decade. And this will continue as long as the party is controlled by a small group of elitist rich (and of course non-Catholic) liberals who fit the stereotype of what Democrats say Republicans are.

With another great Republican election night passing New Jersey by, maybe it is time for New Jersey Republicans to follow the rest of the nation’s lead rather than defy it and move back to the right. Again and again we are told that some liberal “Republican” is the new Golden Boy, only to see them lose on Election Day. It’s time for a change and the first step should be a total housecleaning at the Republican State Committee, starting with Joe Kyrillos.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Rick Shaftan (who is not Catholic) is a political consultant for “conservatives with the guts to win.” The president of Neighborhood Research, a polling company and Mountaintop Media, which produces TV, radio and direct mail, his clients were 12-0 on Tuesday, with one race still in doubt. Among his successful clients this year were conservative Democrat Russ Pitman, who defeated 20-year liberal Republican incumbent Len Kaiser for North Arlington Mayor, conservative freshman Virginia Republican State Senator Ken Cuccinelli, and the Coalition Against the Tax Referendum which defeated a proposed Northern Virginia Sales Tax increase by a 55-45 margin.


TOPICS: Free Republic; Politics/Elections; US: New Jersey
KEYWORDS: abortionlist; catholiclist; editorial; election; forrester; gobretgo; mountaintopmedia; newjersey; nj; prolife; senator; shaftan; sprint
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To: All
POST-ELECTION POLL SHOWS THAT THE PRO-LIFE VOTES MADE THE DIFFERENCE

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/789676/posts
121 posted on 11/15/2002 9:26:48 AM PST by Coleus
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To: All
http://www.eagleforum.org/vote/NJ-index.html
122 posted on 11/15/2002 5:15:09 PM PST by Coleus
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To: PaulNYC; tsomer; Mixer; MattinNJ; OceanKing; TomT in NJ; Coleus; agrace; Alberta's Child; ...
Paul Makes some good points which "future" republican candidates in NJ should take note. In other words, "Know your base." I'm building up this post more as a reference tool for future candidates than anything else. We have a little over 900,000 'registered' repubican voters in the state, I wonder how many stay home on the various election days?

The real lemmings are here in Jersey

Tuesday, November 12, 2002

In 1958, a Disney documentary titled "White Wilderness" showed dozens of furry little rodents called lemmings jumping off a cliff. Ever since, the term "lemming" has been used to portray a mindless person who follows a leader into oblivion.

But do lemmings in the wild really commit mass suicide?

More on that later. For the moment, let's discuss another species that tends to follow its leader off a cliff, the New Jersey Republican.

Across the country, Republicans are in the ascendancy. Here in New Jersey, they're on the endangered species list. This is entirely due to the bad leadership that began with the Whitman era and continues to this day.

A decade ago, Republicans seemed to be on their way to becoming the permanent majority in New Jersey. The reason was simple: New Jersey is the most suburban state in the nation, and suburbanites tend to vote Republican.

Writer David Brooks of the Weekly Standard has studied this phenomenon in great detail. In a post-election wrap-up Sunday, Brooks credited last week's national GOP victory to the party's success in wooing suburban voters. In Georgia, for example, popular Democratic incumbent Max Cleland was ousted from the Senate by a Republican who piled up victory margins of 64 and 77 percent in the fast-growing suburban counties outside Atlanta.

In New Jersey, Republican Doug Forrester polled a mere 52 percent in suburban Ocean County. He got just 51 percent in Monmouth County. He was creamed in Bergen County, a traditional GOP stronghold that went 55 percent for the Democrats and 43 percent for the Republicans.

That was bad enough. Worse, the GOP lost control of county government in Bergen. In Ocean, the GOP lost control of the county seat, sprawling Dover Township. If last Tuesday's trend continues, New Jersey Republicans might as well just switch parties en masse.

All of this was avoidable. What Republicans needed to do to pile up huge margins among suburban voters was simple: Give them what they want. What do suburbanites want? "More highways, less growth," is how Brooks sums it up. They also want to "spend more time with their families as well as less on their mortgages," he writes.

That's a concise list of all the things New Jersey Republicans denied suburbanites under Christie Whitman, Don DiFrancesco and now John Bennett, the clueless co- president of the state Senate. The problem Whitman faced on taking office in 1994 was an activist state Supreme Court that had in effect made it unconstitutional to be a Republican. The game was rigged. Democrats could pour money into their districts for education, but if Republicans tried to do so, the court would rule it unconstitutional.

Instead of reversing this trend, Whitman packed the court with judges who were even more activist. That, of course, led directly to the loss of a Senate seat when the Whitman court approved the last- ditch switch that got Frank Lautenberg into the race. But even greater damage was done on the level of local politics. Whitman and her court shifted billions more in spending from the suburbs to urban schools and even added free preschools.

This won the GOP zero new voters. Forrester got a mere 27 percent of the vote in Essex County. He got just 25 percent in Hudson.

It's obvious why Democrats would want to give money to Democrats. But why did Republicans want to? State Sen. Leonard Lance of Hunterdon County notes that the reason property taxes in the suburbs are so high is that 53 percent of state school aid goes to the urban "Abbott" districts, which have a mere 21 percent of the students.

"I don't believe the people of New Jersey understand fully that the Abbott districts are funded at the highest level in the nation and that we give the city of Newark almost $600 million a year -- and that Newark now wishes to build an arena," Lance said.

The obvious question: If Newark can't support its own schools, how can it afford $200 million for an arena? And why do urban parents get free preschool paid for by suburban taxpayers?

"The Democrats love to talk about abortion, guns and even cell phones, but the budget should be the heart of our priorities," said Lance.

With the entire Legislature up for re-election next year, the GOP strategy to win suburban votes should be simple: Vote for us and we will give you what you want. Money for schools. Reversal of the Mt. Laurel affordable housing quotas. You name it. That's old-fashioned politics, but old-fashioned politics is now unconstitutional in New Jersey -- for Republicans anyway. They followed their leaders off a cliff.

Which brings me back to the question of lemmings and of how those filmmakers got pictures of them leaping to their deaths. It turns out the furry little critters didn't jump off that cliff; the filmmakers threw them.

Lemmings don't follow their leaders off cliffs. Only New Jersey Republicans do that.

Paul Mulshine is a Star-Ledger columnist. He may be reached at Paul Mulshine

The real lemmings are here in Jersey,Tuesday, November 12, 2002

123 posted on 11/15/2002 6:36:45 PM PST by Coleus
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To: Coleus
Anti-Catholicism is as prevalent among Republicans it is along liberals. Remember the flap over the Hosue chaplain?
124 posted on 11/15/2002 7:56:53 PM PST by RobbyS
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To: RobbyS
Yes, I do, they (republicans) made a big deal about it, and actually asked if he was going to wear his Roman Collar. Those stodgy WASPS didn't want him to be their chaplain.
125 posted on 11/15/2002 8:24:34 PM PST by Coleus
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To: Coleus
I missed the details of the chaplain thing, could you sterr me in a direction to read up on it? Thanks in advance.
126 posted on 11/15/2002 9:00:56 PM PST by Audit_Jesse
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To: Audit_Jesse
Oh? It was a big topic of consternation a couple of yrs. ago. Happy Reading!!

http://catholicleague.org/00press_releases/chaplain.html
http://catholicleague.org/99press_releases/pr0499.htm#HOUSE%20CHAPLAIN%20SELECTION%20DEMANDS%20FULL%20DISCLOSURE
http://catholicleague.org/2000report/summary2000.html
http://www.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/03/23/chaplain.cnn/
http://www.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/02/08/house.chaplain/
http://www.trincoll.edu/depts/csrpl/RINVol3No2/house_chaplain.htm
http://www.atheists.org/flash.line/congres8.htm
http://www.house.gov/markgreen/PRESS/1999/Dec99News/STFatherObrien.htm
http://www.house.gov/ganske/speech022900.htm
http://www.infidels.org/library/modern/features/2000/au1.html
http://freedom.house.gov/library/chaplain/documents.pdf
127 posted on 11/15/2002 9:26:24 PM PST by Coleus
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To: Coleus
Good morning & thanks for the ping

Bump to read later....not really awake yet (-;
128 posted on 11/16/2002 3:24:04 AM PST by firewalk
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To: Coleus
IMO Doug Forrester came across as a smug little limosine RINO who held convictions in absolutely NOTHING. And he had all the emotion of a Michael Dukakis on quaaludes. The N.J. Dems could have dug up any stiff from their political crypts (and they did with Lousenberg) and trounced Douggie and his impotent "campaign."

Hey Doug -- next time at least load your pea-shooter...

129 posted on 11/16/2002 12:26:25 PM PST by F16Fighter
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To: Coleus
Lautenberg got on the ballot because CHRISTIE WHITMAN'S LIBERAL JUDGES LET IT HAPPEN, ILLEGALLY. Bush' first act in January should be to accept Christie's resignation from EPA, or reassign her to EPA's floor-mopping detail.

see the following thread:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/my/comments

130 posted on 11/16/2002 12:40:47 PM PST by churchillbuff
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To: churchillbuff
Thanks, what was the link again?
131 posted on 11/24/2002 9:34:45 PM PST by Coleus
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To: Coleus
Doug Forrester is a self consumed despicable ulgy maniacal being.....

Those who have nothing to offer......except Scorched Earth Promo's

Who is Doug Forrester a Psycho Path or Social Path??

132 posted on 05/27/2005 3:01:24 PM PDT by restornu (Apple don't fall far from the tree...Now Apples are toss from the tree..OUR throw away KIDS)
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To: restornu

He is one of 7 republicans running for governor in the Primary election this June in NJ


133 posted on 05/27/2005 5:05:03 PM PDT by Coleus (Roe v. Wade and Endangered Species Act both passed in 1973, Murder Babies/save trees, birds, algae)
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To: Coleus
Lack of charisma = Forrester lost

Unfortunately, I do not think it was his views. If only. NJ is a Dem state. A true conservative will have a hard time. A Rudy like mod with charisma can win. That's about all right now IMHO having lived there most of my life.

134 posted on 05/27/2005 5:09:39 PM PDT by SoCar (Refugee from NJ)
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To: Coleus
A pro 2nd Amendment candidate can win in NJ. A 100% true "pro lifer" cannot IMO. Go back to Steve Forbes "96 platform on abortion to find a blue state winner.
135 posted on 05/27/2005 5:12:31 PM PDT by SoCar (Refugee from NJ)
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To: SoCar
It's OK, we have tape recorders in which to defend ourselves.  No Problem here in Jersey.

Slain NJ Teacher's Tape Reveals More Evidence, Too Bad She Did Not Have a GUN!!

136 posted on 05/27/2005 5:18:57 PM PDT by Coleus (Roe v. Wade and Endangered Species Act both passed in 1973, Murder Babies/save trees, birds, algae)
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To: Coleus
I think this needs to be underscored and repeated!!!

Moderates, RINOS, less then social conservative Republicans in red states should not be accepted and targeted for defeat (ie Lindsey Graham here in SC). Republicans as described above have to be accepted in blue states because the alternative is a Rat. A Forrester Senate victory in NJ would be a huge victory, in SC it would be a huge loss. Can we please see the difference.

It should be our goal to elect the most conservative nominee that can be elected in the general in each particular state. Politics is the art of the possible. Look at the state, then the candidate. Let's win!

137 posted on 05/27/2005 5:25:27 PM PDT by SoCar (Refugee from NJ)
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To: SoCar; Coleus

Lack of charisma = Forrester lost

SoCar....It is NOT a lack of charisma....it is Doug Forrester is a self consumed despicable ulgy maniacal being.....

Those who have nothing to offer......except Scorched Earth Promo's

Who is Doug Forrester a Psycho Path or Social Path??\

******

I am from NYC and the ads that DF runs are so hateful and ugly he makes me despised him.....

For over a month he been tearing Bret Shindler to piece with Scorched Earth Promo's.....if DF has something to offer than show us what DF achieved and his solution it would be better that Scorched Earth Promo's.......

DF us a Yucky being.......

I am NYer so who dislikes him can't imagine how NJ's folks feel about his hatefulness.......there are 6 others Republicans running hope they get in and send DF to DEMS!


138 posted on 05/27/2005 7:37:48 PM PDT by restornu (Apple don't fall far from the tree...Now Apples are toss from the tree..OUR throw away KIDS)
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