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I voted for Simon in the primary and again today, but I think he has only about a 10% chance of winning.

IMHO, what has to happen for Simon to win:

Teachers Unions
Their stated disgust for Davis has to materialize in low teacher turnout and/or votes for Simon or Camejo. The teachers have hurt Davis already in that they don't seem to be organizing a GOTV effort on his behalf.

Bandwagoners
A chunk of CA voters flow with a tide. These folks need to decide they don't like Davis and to vote instead for spoiler Simon or just throw in "play votes" for the Lib or Green Candidate.

Bay Area
Polling has shown Davis' core strength to be in the Bay Area. We're gonna need some dismal turnout there as well as the vegan-crowd voting for Camejo.

Repub Showup
Repubs need to forget the conventional wisdom that this race is over and vote for Simon. A good sign is that they'd already done so in the primary election.

Latino Split
Latinos voted huge for Davis 4 years ago. The "official latino community spokespersons" are mad at Davis for several reasons (including one that I agree with Davis on -- his veto of the illegal alien driver's license). They've threatened to not push hard for Davis and Simon has made an effort to get votes from Latinos. If Simon can get a few more votes here than expected, and Davis can lose votes to Camejo, this can help.

Bottom Line: Davis is the heavy favorite. Our hope is that Davis' voters are overconfident and don't show up.

Heavy favorite? I don't know how any incumbent struggling to stay in the mid 40s in the polls could be considered a heavy favorite.

Is Simon the underdog? Yeah. Can he win this thing? Yep!

While Gov. Jeb Bush has been enjoying multiple visits from the First Brother, Simon has had to largely settle for obscure Cabinet members.

This part isn't true. Simon benefitted from five separate fundraising events with President Bush. I bet that's more than any politician in the country except Jeb.

I voted for Simon in the primary and again today, but I think he has only about a 10% chance of winning.

I voted for Simon in the primary, but voted for Copeland today. Tonight, I will be attending one of several LP "Victory Parties" in the LA/Orange county area (yes, the LP is big enough to sustain several big bashes).