Tenn Election News Roundup: Stakes high on lottery, top offices (gov race dead heat)

Tennesseans will brave steady rain today to make history - electing a new governor, a U.S. senator, filling three open congressional seats, recasting much of the state legislature and deciding on a long-debated state lottery.

The contest between Democrat Phil Bredesen and Republican Van Hilleary is the closest governor's race since 1986 but the stakes are much higher than simply deciding who gets to live in the Governor's Mansion.

After three brutal years of fiscal crisis in state government and a vicious campaign season, Tennesseans will choose a new governor and potentially transform the politics within the state General Assembly, where both the House and Senate could shift to become more conservative and more Republican.

Similarly, the race between Republican Lamar Alexander and Democrat Bob Clement for an open U.S. Senate seat has national implications for Democratic or Republican control of the Senate.

Historically, polls have suggested a state lottery could win easy passage but the outcome is now very much in doubt. Anti-lottery campaigns carried out by church groups and others have eroded support for the proposed lottery amendment to the Tennessee Constitution, which would allow the General Assembly to establish a state lottery to support college scholarships and early childhood education.

Steady rain is forecast statewide, which has lottery proponents and Democrats worried about turnout. The lottery has a higher threshold for approval: It must win a majority of the number of people who voted in the governor's race, not just a majority of those voting on the amendment itself.

In the governor's race, Bredesen is the two-term former mayor of Nashville, a millionaire entrepreneur in the HMO business whose campaign has stressed that he has the background and ability to manage state government, reform TennCare and expand Tennessee's economy. He opposes a state income tax.

Hilleary is a four-term member of the U.S. House from the sprawling, rural 4th Congressional District whose campaign has stressed his opposition to an income tax and an emphasis on K-12 education reform.

Among the host of independent hopefuls are perennial candidate John Jay Hooker and Nashville minister Ed Sanders.

This governor's race is pivotal for Tennessee's traditionally centrist politics, Vanderbilt political science professor Bruce Oppenheimer said Monday.

It is a must-win for the state's moribund Democratic Party, which hasn't won a major state race since 1990 - other than for President Clinton in 1992 and 1996 - and which arguably blew Al Gore's chance to be president two years ago.

But it's also a major test for the GOP's ultra-conservative wing, for whom Hilleary is its first party nominee in a major statewide race. If Hilleary wins, the former Newt Gingrich disciple will become the party's titular head.

''The question is whether a Democratic candidate can win - even one who leans to the center as much as Bredesen does - when faced with a very conservative House member like Hilleary. If in fact Tennessee is still movable as a state in terms of its politics, a pro-business, fiscal conservative like Bredesen ought to win.''

Oppenheimer points out that Alexander had to shift his politics to the right to win the GOP nomination Aug. 1, and that the Hilleary-Bredesen race may reveal just how conservative Tennessee has become.

''I don't think there are more Howard Bakers on the horizon in the Republican Party, and one question is whether (Republican moderates) are going to leave Hilleary in enough numbers to elect Bredesen,'' Oppenheimer said.

Alexander faces Democratic congressman Clement of Nashville in the Senate race, where the former Tennessee governor and two-time presidential candidate is considered to be ahead. But both national parties pumped hundreds of thousands of dollars into the race for a barrage of television ads on both sides, signaling their belief the race is competitive.

This election comes at a critical time for Tennessee's government, which has had three years of near-paralysis on Capitol Hill resulting in diminished funding for higher education, a shortage of state prison space, the closure of TennCare to uninsurables, and a new court mandate to equalize teacher pay statewide.

The election will show whether voters are still angry enough over the state's long tax struggle to punish legislative incumbents, particularly those who voted for a state income tax, which did not succeed, and the majority who passed the one-cent sales tax hike.

''We think most of our folks are going to be all right,'' said House Democratic Caucus chairman Randy Rinks (D-Savannah), who said that those who voted for an income tax have been able to explain their reasoning to voters.

But Republicans have targeted several Middle Tennessee Democrats whom they feel are vulnerable on the tax vote, most notably tax sponsor Rep. Tommy Head (D-Clarksville) and Rep. Butch Lewis (D-Manchester) and House Speaker Jimmy Naifeh (D-Covington).

And within the Republican party, primaries have tended to favor anti-tax conservatives over moderates.

Because of a rash of retirements from the House this year, Tennessee's 99-member House will have at least 20 new members, and Republicans are considered likely to gain at least four seats.

Tennessee's Senate, with its nominal Democratic majority, may go to the Republicans, whose Senate caucus is deeply split between the older, less partisan leadership and its younger, more conservative members.

http://www.gomemphis.com/mca/politics/article/0,1426,MCA_1496_1524306,00.html

11th-hour messages delivered by land and air

By Richard Locker, locker@gomemphis.com
and James W. Brosnan, brosnanj@shns.com
November 5, 2002

NASHVILLE - Candidates for statewide office used planes, caravans and shoe leather to reach out to voters on election eve Monday and plan to keep at it until the polls close at 7 p.m. today.

Republican Senate candidate Lamar Alexander and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Phil Bredesen board ed small planes for traditional cross-state fly-arounds and airport press conferences - both ending with big rallies in Memphis.

Republican gubernatorial candidate Van Hilleary did an unconventional motor caravan that began Sunday in Mountain City and ended Monday night with a visit to the Ingram Micro Distribution Center in Millington, bypassing Tennessee's cities for stops in small towns and suburbs, one of the themes of his campaign.

And Democratic Senate candidate Bob Clement campaigned in Memphis all day, hitting the streets at 6:30 a.m. to crank up the Democratic vote in the state's biggest city.

Trying to sway last-minute undecided voters and urging their supporters to the polls on what was forecast as a rainy day statewide were the orders of the day.

Clement, a U.S. representative from Nashville, eschewed the usual East to West sweep. "I think Shelby County is going to deliver this thing," he said. (MY NOTE HE MEANS THE CORRUPT FORD/HERENTON machines in Memphis!)

After meeting with hundreds of city sanitation workers just after dawn at the Farrisview Boulevard Solid Waste Complex, Clement moved to MATA's transfer station where he met 100-year-old Haywood Gaines, on his way to pick up his medicine. Gaines told Clement he had already voted for him and had voted for Democrats "ever since I was 21 years old. There's no question they're for the working man," Gaines said.

Clement also met with county Mayor A C Wharton and pledged to try to help get federal Medicaid reimbursement for the indigent care The Med provides to Mississippi residents.

Bredesen, the former Nashville mayor, was welcomed at a Memphis airport hangar by more than 500 supporters in the afternoon. U.S. Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D-Tenn.) hosted the event, which Clement also attended. The congressman's father, former representative Harold Ford, ushered in the Westwood High School marching band.

Bredesen told the Democrats, "Our victory will come right here on the ground," saying that a big voter turnout will help him win, not television ads.

On a stage crowded with prominent Democrats, the younger Ford noted the presence of former Memphis mayor Dick Hackett as an example of Bredesen's "bipartisan support" in Shelby County.

Fifteen minutes later, Hackett was down Winchester Road waiting to greet Alexander as he arrived with U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson (R-Tenn.), the man Alexander and Clement hope to succeed, for an airport press conference.

Alexander said he wants to represent "all Memphians and Shelby Countians" as he said he did as governor. "I will try to do the same as senator, from Shelby Farms to Soulsville," he said before heading to a late-afternoon rally near the University of Memphis.

Earlier in Nashville, Alexander said he'd like "to be the same kind of senator that Howard Baker was and that Fred Thompson is. I'd like to serve and vote with conservative principles and with an independent attitude."

But the crux of the race, he said, is the balance of power in the Senate, where Democrats currently hold a one-vote majority. "I hope the people will give me a chance to make it one vote easier for President Bush to lead our country and represent our values. It's one vote easier for the President to pass a homeland security measure during a time of war, one vote easier to pass a permanent tax cut during a time when our economy needs some help and one vote easier to confirm judges who will enforce the law instead of making it up as they go along."

Hilleary, stopping to address about 40 workers in the lunchroom of Custom Packaging Co. in Lebanon at midday, said he's confident of victory "rain or shine" and promised the workers he would keep their taxes low.

A manager from the plant made a point of asking Hilleary his stance on the minimum wage - an issue in the campaign because of Hilleary's support as a U.S. representative of a measure that would allow states to opt out of the federal minimum wage. Hilleary responded that he voted twice to increase the federal minimum wage.

Contact Nashville Bureau chief Richard Locker at (615) 255-4923.

Contact Washington correspondent James W. Brosnan at (202) 408-2701.

Democrats charge GOP trying to depress voter participation voter

GOP poll-watcher memo disputed Poll watcher

Hilleary wraps up campaign with trips to smaller towns VAN

Bredesen winds up campaign optimistic about vote, future Weasel phil

Clement rounds up supporters during trip through Memphis clement

Alexander takes his campaign to 6 airports — 3 in Eaststate Lamar

Alexander, Clement take different tacks as campaign wanes Lamar, clement

Lottery foes, supporters make last pleas to voters lottery

From drugs to judges, issues will sway votersIssues

Clement devotes final stretch to black voters clement spent Sat & Sunday in Black churches

Good voter turnout expected despite rain Weather

Thanks Gail for all of your great posts.

Other comments. Early voting results showed Memphis and Chattanooga with the lowest early vote percentages. The highest was Knoxville, a Republican area. So, if early vote was low in Memphis and it rains all day today that should depress minority turnout for Bredesen in Memphis.

This is further indicated by the full court press Bredesen and his cronies did in Memphis on Sunday.

I live on the edge of Butch Lewis's district. Based on all the signs and local reaction I believe Judd Matheny is going to beat Butch Lewis. One of the big indicators in my mind is that there are a lot of pro-Matheny signs displayed at businesses, even in Manchester, Lewis's home town.

I also believe we have a chance to unseat George Fraley in Winchester. This is my house district. We have a Republican (Jack Daniel) running strong in the district which is somewhat of a sleeper. As we have campaigned for Jack, the magic phrase has been, "Jack Daniels is a Republican running against George Fraley and he is against the income tax." People light up when they find out someone is challenging Fraley. Fraley was one of the Democrats who changed his vote to present after getting their arms twisted by Naifeh.

I have also been campaigning for Janice Bowling. This race is an absolute toss-up. If you know anyone in the 4th district, tell them to get to the polls and vote for Janice. Her internal polling indicates she has gained ground in the last week and that she is ahead, but the margin may be as small as 3,000 votes!

To all you Tennesseans, pray for rain on the democrats and GO VOTE! This election has national and local implications!

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