Posted on 11/02/2002 9:39:42 PM PST by BlackRazor
Poll: Vilsack, Harkin in lead
By Kathie Obradovich
. DES MOINES — Incumbents hold the edge going into the homestretch of the campaign, a statewide poll of Iowa voters shows, including a comfortable, 22-point lead for U.S. Sen. Tom Harkin and a 13-point advantage for Gov. Tom Vilsack.
. The telephone poll of likely voters shows Republican Rep. Jim Nussle holding a lead over Democrat Ann Hutchinson in the 1st Congressional District race.
. Incumbent Congressmen Jim Leach, Tom Latham and Leonard Boswell hold statistically significant leads over their opponents, but high number of undecided voters still could make a difference, the survey shows.
. Gazette Communications Inc. conducted the telephone poll of 1,082 registered voters Oct. 28-30. The results show the preferences of 909 of those voters who indicated they are likely to vote on Tuesday, and the margin of error for that likely voter sample is 3.3 percent.
. Vilsack, a Democrat, had 46.5 percent of likely voters in his corner, compared to 33.8 percent for Republican Doug Gross. To close the gap, Gross would have to pick up almost all of the 12.6 percent undecided voters.
. The Gross campaign said that’s exactly what they expect to happen. “I think more and more, we have seen people make up their mind in the final 72 hours,” campaign spokesman Eric Woolson said.
. He said voters know Vilsack and it is an indication of trouble for the one-term incumbent if they haven’t decided by now whether to return him to office.
. “You’ve got a governor stalled below 50 percent and the momentum tends to move over the weekend — we’re confident that momentum is going to move our direction,” Woolson said.
. Vilsack campaign spokesman Joe Householder said the numbers show voters prefer the governor’s message of “hope and opportunity.”
. However, Householder said, the analysis “suggests that it is still a race, that we’ve got a lot of work to do in the final hours of this campaign,” he said. “The campaigns are going to be working hard to the last possible minute.”
.
. U.S. Senate
. In the race for U.S. Senate, 50.6 percent of likely voters chose Harkin, while 28.6 percent favored Republican Congressman Greg Ganske.
. “We’re optimistic heading into Election Day,” Harkin campaign spokesman Joe Shannahan said.
. Although the polls show the senator is ahead, “we’re continuing to run like this is a one- or two-point race,” Shannahan said.
. Ganske’s campaign said it still is a close race. “The vice president, president and first lady wouldn’t be coming if it wasn’t a close race,” Ganske campaign spokesman Curt Mercadante said.
. Laura Bush will campaign for Republicans in Waukee today and President Bush will be in Cedar Rapids on Monday morning. Vice President Dick Cheney rallied Republicans in Sioux City on Thursday.
. Congress
. The survey also asked respondents living in congressional districts 1-4 for their preferences in those races. Because the sample of likely voters was smaller, ranging from 232 voters in District 3 to 264 voters in District 2, the survey’s margin of error for those races is between 6 percent and 6.4 percent.
. In the 1st Congressional District, 44 percent of 244 likely voters surveyed gave the nod to Rep. Jim Nussle, a Republican, compared to 32.1 percent for Democrat Ann Hutchinson. With 15.8 percent of likely voters undecided, the race is too close to call, according to the survey.
. Spokesmen for both Nussle and Hutchinson said they had doubts about the survey’s accuracy. Nick Ryan, Nussle’s campaign manager, said their internal polls show that Nussle has more than 50 percent support and, in some instances, the margin is wider than the Gazette poll indicates.
. Mark Nevins, a spokesman for Hutchinson, said their polls show the race tighter than 12 points, though he maintains that Nussle is not over 50 percent. He believes that negative campaigning has pushed up the number of people who are undecided.
. U.S. Rep. Jim Leach, a Republican, held the edge with 44.7 of likely voters, with Democrat Julie Thomas winning over 31.1 percent. The survey says Leach’s lead among 264 likely voters is statistically significant, but both parties are treating this as a close race in the final days of the campaign.
. The survey notes that 14.8 percent of likely voters are undecided and Leach must win more than at least half of those to be assured of victory.
. Bush will stop Monday in Cedar Rapids to help get out the vote for Republicans, while Democrats crisscrossing the state have made frequent stops in the 2nd District.
. In District 3, 45.3 percent of likely voters preferred U.S. Rep. Leonard Boswell, a Democrat, compared to 32.7 percent for Republican Stan Thompson. Undecided voters, totaling 17.5 percent, are also a factor here.
. U.S. Rep. Tom Latham, a Republican, had a statistically significant lead over Democrat John Norris, with 49.6 percent of the vote, compared to 27.2 percent for Norris. The number of undecided voters is the highest of the four districts surveyed with 21.9 percent.
More numbers from Iowa...
If you want on or off my poll ping list, let me know!
What do the people of Iowa see in Harkin? Are the citizens of Iowa really that leftist?
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