Kansas - New poll has Sebelius still ahead, Shallenburger closer

AP via Salina Journal ^ | November 1, 2002

[11th_VA]

LAWRENCE, Kan. (AP) -- Democrat Kathleen Sebelius remains ahead of Republican Tim Shallenburger in their race for governor, a new poll released Friday showed, but the contest was getting closer.

The telephone survey of 625 likely Kansas voters on Tuesday and Wednesday showed Sebelius with 49 percent to Shallenburger's 42 percent. Seven percent of respondents were undecided and 2 percent supported minor party candidates.

The poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, D.C., for The Lawrence Journal World and other media outlets. It had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

A Kansas City Star poll conducted from last Wednesday through Tuesday of this week had Sebelius leading 46 percent to 37 percent. That poll, also with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 points, had a much larger number of undecided voters -- 15 percent.

A poll conducted for the Harris News Service that was released Sunday showed Sebelius with a much larger lead, 53 percent to 34 percent, with 12 percent undecided.

"He's definitely gaining ground," Brad Coker, Mason-Dixon's managing director, said of Shallenburger. He said Shallenburger's gains were coming from previously undecided Republican voters, adding that it was important to note that overall support for Sebelius had remained constant.

"If her support was dropping, you could make the case that Shallenburger was on a surge," Coker said. "But her numbers don't seem to be moving."

"She has a strong base in Democrats, independents and a strong core of Republicans," he said. "She seems to have that base relatively secure. She is definitely the favorite, but again, it is a Republican state."

Mark Peterson, a Washburn University political science professor, attributed Shallenburger's improvement in the polls to several factors. He pointed to conservative Republicans making their preference known, some moderate Republicans deciding to support the conservative Shallenburger, and probable energizing of some GOP voters by high-profile visits to Kansas from national Republicans such as Vice President Dick Cheney.

"If I was in the Sebelius camp right now, I would tighten it up a notch and work harder," Peterson said. "But I don't think I would be fearful that it's a harbinger of a catastrophe."

Sebelius' spokeswoman, Nicole Corcoran-Basso, said the campaign had long expected a tight race.

"We've always expected a close, competitive race, and we've run our campaign with that firmly in mind," she said.

Shallenburger's campaign hailed the poll's results.

"It certainly puts us within a very good shot to win this thing," said spokesman Alan Cobb.

Among women, Sebelius led Shallenburger 54 percent to 37 percent, while male voters favored Shallenburger 47 percent to 44 percent.

Sebelius was supported by 27 percent of Republicans, 56 percent of independents and 79 percent of Democrats. Shallenburger was favored by 65 percent of Republicans, 29 percent of independents and 13 percent of Democrats.

Sebelius led in three of the state's four congressional districts, with Shallenburger ahead of her in the 3rd District

[11th_VA]

The telephone survey of 625 likely Kansas voters on Tuesday and Wednesday ...

Doesn't even include the Memorial diservice bump yet ...

[lmr]

This b*tch is going to win, and we will have another Joan Finney in this state. Well, that figures. Kansas is a Republican state but it is not unusual for the Sunflower State to elect a Democrat to it's highest office.

[Will_Zurmacht]

Already voted for tim, though my vote will be canceled out by a few liberal profs, dippy soccer moms, and the terminally simpleminded...still, fight the good fight.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Finney was a better Gov than that moron RINO twit Graves. We can give him a big "thank you" for helping Socialist Jack Gilligan's "red diaper baby" Kathleen to succeed him.

[rwfromkansas]

I thought I would bring this up here due to another thread about the young being the most Republican electorate, while the old being the most Democrat.

Does anyone remember that one poll where the young were the one group that backed Shallenburger over Sebelius right after the primary? I don't need it or anything, but I found that poll interesting.....that the youth are the most conservative of all the age groups.

I still remember a high school history teacher (born in the late 70's), saying he thought once the 60's/early 70's people got out of politics, the nation would become more conservative. Even more so with the 80's kids getting in office. It is quite interesting to think he may be right. Looking ahead, the old folks won't ever hold as much of a part of the electorate as they do now. It is possible America may grow more conservative for the 2008 election and after.

Anyway, I thought I would bring that up here since it is something not many think about.....