States of Play: Battles for the statehouses.

National Review Online ^ | November 1, 2002 | John Hood

[xsysmgr]

RALEIGH, N.C. — The Republican surge of 1994 didn't just give the party control of Congress for the first time since the 1950s. It also presented the GOP with surprising takeovers of statehouses and legislative chambers in states where Democrats had held virtually unchallenged power for much of the 20th century. For conservatives looking to implement reforms in fiscal policy, school choice, abortion, term limits, tort law, and regulation, post-1994 opportunities abounded — as, unfortunately, did opportunities to betray their principles by expanding state programs and budgets.

As was the case with the Republican gains in federal offices, the 1994 surge proved to be the high-water mark for the party's electoral position at the state level. In the subsequent elections of 1996 and 1998, a number of Republican officeholders who had won in marginal jurisdictions were to lose their reelection bids. After the 1998 election, a 19-18 edge for Republicans in control of state legislatures nationwide (with another 12 split between the two parties) yielded to a 20-17 Democratic advantage (with 12 split, again).

In the 2000 elections, Republicans made a concerted effort to regain lost ground in the states — in part to try and seize control of the congressional redistricting process for the 2001-02 cycle. The effort was partly successful. The GOP gained an 18-16 edge in legislatures, and was able to acquire or protect complete Republican control (governor and legislature) in such key states as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, Virginia, and Florida. The share of state legislators nationwide who were Republicans approached 50 percent for the first time in more than a century.

Since November 2002, events have again conspired against the Republicans. Vacancies, legislative deal-making, and adverse elections in Virginia and New Jersey have left the GOP with only a 27-21 edge in governorships and have restored a slight 18-17 Democratic advantage in the legislatures. Now, with 23 of the 27 Republican governors up for reelection or retirement — and with Democratic candidates leading in big states such as Illinois, Michigan, and Pennsylvania — it might appear that the 2002 election will bear little resemblance to the Republican glory days of 1994.

But appearances can be deceiving. In September and October, Republican politicians and activists from coast to coast grew increasingly optimistic about their chances in state races. What's particularly interesting is how electoral history is repeating itself. In 1994, for example, the two states that saw the largest legislative (and congressional) gains for Republicans were Washington and North Carolina. In 2002, these are precisely the two states where GOP leaders think they have the best chance of seizing control of one or both legislative chambers.

The issues are similar, tried-and-true Republican standbys: taxes and wasteful spending. Both states have experienced radical shifts in their economic fortunes: from 1990s New Economy pacesetters to 21st-century duds. By summer 2002, they were posting the highest jobless rates in the United States. Layoffs extended from low-skill manufacturing and resource industries to high-tech companies in and around Seattle and North Carolina's Research Triangle Park. Many voters seem willing to blame excessive taxes and regulations for their states' misfortunes.

In Washington, a 50-48 Democratic house and 25-24 Democratic senate have been struggling with multibillion-dollar budget deficits and transportation woes. The Republicans' chances lie primarily in swing districts in the Puget Sound suburbs — about a dozen in the house and half-a-dozen in the senate. In North Carolina, a Democratic attempt to gerrymander house and senate districts to ensure the party's control for a decade ran aground in the courts, where Republican plaintiffs successfully argued that the plans violated the state constitution. Eventually, a trial judge had out-of-state experts draw interim house and senate plans that paid scant attention to incumbency or partisan advantage. As a result, the Democrats' 62-58 advantage in the house and even their more sizable 35-15 edge in the senate are imperiled this year, with better-than-usual Republican candidates pounding an anti-tax, anti-wasteful-spending message in a campaign featuring a list of Republican "commitments" — essentially a Gingrich-like contract with voters.

There are other legislative battlegrounds. Texas has a chance to go the way of Florida in unified Republican government, with Gov. Rick Perry opening a 15-point lead in his reelection bid and GOP candidates angling for an historic takeover of the Texas house of representatives (the party already has a one-seat majority in the senate) — while running, for the most part, on an explicitly conservative agenda. As in North Carolina, redistricting had a lot to do with putting the Texas house in play. State Republicans say they might increase their current 72 seats in the 150-seat house to as many as 87 — though it's by no means clear either that this will happen, or that all the Republican members would necessarily vote for a Republican speaker over longtime Democratic speaker Pete Laney, who enjoys bipartisan support.

Another Republican opportunity lies in Arizona, where a GOP house has butted heads with a tied senate. A competitive gubernatorial race between Democrat Janet Napolitano and Republican Matt Salmon may affect a handful of swing seats in fast-growing communities east of Phoenix, such as Tempe and Scottsdale. Salmon appears to have faltered in recent weeks (the significance of this is unclear, given the popularity of early voting in Arizona). But there is no doubt that a similar Republican effort underway to take control of the house in Oklahoma is being helped by the strong gubernatorial candidacy of former congressman and NFL veteran Steve Largent, who is running to replace term-limited Republican Gov. Frank Keating.

Democrats have good opportunities of their own, however. In Illinois, for instance, redistricting is cutting the other way with a Democratic map that threatens the Republicans' 32-27 advantage in the senate. GOP gubernatorial nominee Jim Ryan looks like he could lose massively to Democrat Rod Blagojevich, ending nearly three decades of Republican governors — that might make a crucial difference in the handful of competitive suburban seats. In Minnesota, it's the Republican house that looks like it might be up for grabs, after as many as 30 seats were disturbed by reapportionment (Republican rural districts were replaced by competitive suburban ones). And in Oregon — another state buffeted by high unemployment and wrenching economic changes — Democrats think they have a reasonable chance at either or both chambers of the Republican-controlled legislature. There is significant voter disenchantment with incumbents, but the bad news for Democrats is that only 13 of the 18 key swing districts are open seats.

Overall, there are 6,214 legislative districts to be filled in the upcoming election, with Democrats holding about 51 percent of the seats nationwide. Tim Storey, an analyst for the National Conference of State Legislatures, says that a switch of just four seats or fewer in 25 states could shift the partisan control of their legislative chambers. The turnover could be higher in 2002 than ever before — largely because of term limits, which are forcing 322 legislators in 22 states to either leave office or run for something else this year. In competitive states, the outcome is largely unpredictable given the paucity of district-by-district polling and uncertainties about how the national political mood and U.S. Senate and House races will affect turnout among religious conservatives, blacks, and Hispanics, among other groups.

In governor's races across the United States, Republicans are clearly on the defensive. Only a miracle can keep Democrats from achieving net gains, especially in the largest states. In the legislative branch, however, it's quite possible that the GOP will gain seats — despite the fact that the president's party has lost an average of more than 350 seats in every mid-term election cycle since 1940. It's yet more reason to pay close attention on Election Day: As in 1994, the returns could well prove both surprising and historic.

— John Hood is chairman and president of the John Locke Foundation and author of Investor Politics.