Newest poll finds Doyle (D) ahead by 7 [WI Governor]

Democratic challenger Jim Doyle holds a seven-point lead over Republican Gov. Scott McCallum, according to a new statewide poll of likely voters released Wednesday.

The Badger Poll, conducted from Oct. 24 to 29 by the University of Wisconsin Survey Center for the Journal Sentinel and Capital Times of Madison, has Doyle leading McCallum 41% to 34%. Libertarian candidate Ed Thompson had support from 10% of those surveyed, with 2% saying they backed Green Party candidate Jim Young.

The poll surveyed 501 likely voters statewide and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

The Badger Poll is the most recent in a series of polls on the hotly contested gubernatorial race, all of which have Doyle ahead. Two polls earlier this week had Doyle leading McCallum 38% to 36%, while another poll had Doyle leading McCallum, 41% to 33%.

"There's a fair amount of volatility out there," said G. Donald Ferree Jr., associate director for public opinion research at the UW Survey Center. "What we have here is there are a lot of reasons to not be for a given candidate, and that feeds into the negative campaigning."

Ferree said no opinion poll of late had placed McCallum in the lead, nor did any poll give Doyle a particularly large lead. "The lead is small, but it still can be overcome with turnout and last-minute efforts," he said.

As evidence of the volatility among the electorate, the Badger Poll asked respondents whom they plan to vote for as governor. But when given the opportunity to say they hadn't made up their minds yet, 44% of those surveyed took that option, and 2% more refused to answer. In the initial preference phase of the question, Doyle and McCallum each received 25% support.

Moreover, only 46% said they were "strongly for" the person they named, while 50% said their support was not strong.

Overall, the proportion of McCallum's backers who called themselves "strong supporters" is larger than those who are committed Doyle supporters, 50% compared with 45%.

Neither McCallum nor Doyle fared well when respondents were asked if they have a favorable feeling about the candidates.

In McCallum's case, 32% of those surveyed said they had a favorable impression of him, but 41% said they had an unfavorable impression. And even though McCallum has been in public office for years, 25% of those surveyed said they didn't know enough about him.

Doyle didn't fare much better. Thirty-five percent of those surveyed said they had a favorable impression of him, but 34% said they had an unfavorable impression. Thirty percent said they didn't know enough about him.

Darrin Schmitz, McCallum's campaign manager, said he was cheered by the level of committed McCallum support.

"The core of McCallum support is that he has more committed voters than Doyle has," Schmitz said. "The other polls that reflect huge drops in support for Jim Doyle reflect his base of support is not as solid as the governor's."

Added Schmitz: "Without question, those individuals who are polled and say they are hard and fast committed to McCallum will be encouraged to get to the polls, and they are far more likely to get to the polls. That allows us to concentrate more of our efforts on independent and undecided voters."

Commenting on the results, Bill Christofferson, a Doyle campaign spokesman, said the key question comes down to turnout on election day. "We are focused on everything we can to crank out the turnout," he said.

In regard to who had the most committed supporters down the stretch, Christofferson said the polls had shown "that McCallum's numbers are on a flat line. He's not growing. He has the hard-core Republican vote for him, come hell or high water, but he hasn't been able to add to that."

According to the poll, 40% of those who called themselves independent backed Doyle, while 27% backed McCallum.

Michael Edgerton, a 22-year-old cement truck driver from Mauston, is one of those independents. He said Wednesday night that he had not made up his mind about the race. But he does have one issue vitally important to him.

"Taxes are the issue that is more important to me than anything," he said. "I don't want to see them go up."

Mike Starr, a 51-year-old technical writer from Pleasant Prairie, said he planned to vote for McCallum. "I think in my case I've been a Republican most of my life, and McCallum's positions, in general, are in alignment with mine," he said.

Starr said he was also disgusted by the negative ads that have dominated the airwaves in recent weeks. "I would much rather see the candidates focus on their own individual accomplishments and positions," he said.

Doyle supporter Thomas Koszarek, an 81-year-old retiree from the Antigo area, said he had been a Democrat for years. "I don't think McCallum accomplished much," he said, citing McCallum's move to balance the state budget by using the state's tobacco settlement money. "I'd like to see a fresh start."

A fresh start is what Donna Belongia has in mind as well. Belongia, a 62-year-old retired nurse from Springstead, said she planned to vote for Thompson. "We feel Ed Thompson is on our wavelength," she said, referring to Thompson's common-man touch.

The Badger Poll provides some evidence that voters are not all that thrilled with their choices. For example, when read the phrase, "Has been unfairly attacking his opponent," 14% said that described McCallum, 16% said that described Doyle, but 41% said it described both.

Asked if either candidate could be counted on to keep campaign promises, 19% of those surveyed said McCallum would, and 18% said Doyle would. But 56% said they either didn't know or felt neither could be counted on to keep campaign promises.

Asked who would keep taxes down for state residents, 30% of those surveyed said McCallum would, compared with 22% who said Doyle would. But 43% said they didn't know who would be better or said neither could keep taxes down.

A total of 33% of those surveyed said they felt Doyle would improve public education in the state, compared with 17% who felt McCallum would.

Asked who would deal well with the state budget, 30% said Doyle would, compared with 24% who said McCallum would. But 37% said either they didn't know or that neither of the candidates would deal well with the budget.

According to the poll, the caucus scandal and other ethical problems looming in government have not made a real difference in terms of people being motivated to vote this year. A total of 64% of those surveyed said the scandals made no difference in their willingness to vote, while 25% said it made them more willing to vote, and 11% said the scandals made them less willing.

To: conservative_2001; Coop; rightwingbob; DeaconBenjamin; Congressman Billybob; Vis Numar; mwl1; ...

Poll Ping!

If you want on or off my poll ping list, let me know!

10% for Ed Thompson? If this poll is accurate, Ed's gone from around 5-6% to 10%, and, if what I'm seeing around here is a reflection of the state as a whole, he's taking votes from McCallum.

Our local news reported last night that Ed's brother, Tommy (former guv, now HHS secretary) sent Ed a $500 donation.

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