I don't know if anyone out there has better access to stats. I did see Mondull almost lost his own home state in 1984 coming one percentage point shy of being the only candidate in US Presidential election history suffering a 50 state rout.
My theory is that he is not the favorite son everyone is saying he is. I don't think he even won his Senate races convincly. I don't think a lot of people are sitting around on those cold dark winter nights there in Mn. thinking "I sure do miss Fritz." I could be wrong. I think Coleman is definitely a long shot but has a decent chance, but I don't think this is going to play like the Widder Carnahan.