VAST RIGHT WING CONSPIRACY, INDEED!
< /SARCASM, OF COURSE >
1. Non-precision approach. Rate of incident/accident much higher than with precision. The wind is not a factor. Weather shouldn't be a factor with 700 over.
(from accident investigator, whose opinion I respect highly (Dick Duxbury):
2. NTSB team will have my friend Robert Benzon as the Investigator in Charge of a 9 member team. He's very good!
Brings back bad memories for Dux and a snowy drive to Hibbing, Minnesota in December some years ago to help investigate the Express BA31A turbo crash killing all 19 on board. Bashed Christmas presents among the trees. We initially suspected icing.
However that accident was indeed CFIT and also a non precision approach like the case today. However today's accident site looks like a smoking hole unlike the broken string of trees at the Hibbing accident. The Hibbing accident site was on the approach path but below the minimum decent height. Today's accident site was certainly not on the approach path.
(from a pilot friend who just moved to MI from MN):
3. ... reading the local news reports, there is a mention of freezing rain. Surface temp, according to the airport manager, was 33 degrees. Ceiling between 400 and 700. Ice reported by a pilot at Hibbing, about 25 miles away.
(from Randy Sohn of MN, the afore-mentioned extremely experienced pilot):
4. I wrote a page or two in our 580 manual about tailplane icing causing a "pitchover" *when extending landing flaps*, for this reason we limited landing flaps to 28 degrees in icing conditions. An oil company, Union Producing IIRC, 580 went into the approach lights at Midland years ago because of this deal. I still have that I'd written.
Regarding the King Air's performance in ice:
5. Unfortunately, the boots on a King Air, even when new, do a terrible job of removing ice. We carefully applied all of BF Goodrich’s “Age Master” and “Ice-X” products to our new boots and never ever got a clean break of all the ice. The KA-200 was pretty good about climbing through the icing levels. The KA-350 was even better and could out climb any of the 500 series Citations. But the A100 was/is just a dog. Way underpowered.
6. KingAirs are subject to the same tailplane icing problems as the crash as Rosemont brought to light. Tail is producing substantial downforce, and when it stalls, the result is a quick and severe pitch down.
From another long-time aviation brain, much experience (Wally Roberts):
7. Just saw the NTSB news conference:
a. They had turned 90 degrees to the left off instrument approach final and were flying about due south at impact. I think I heard they were 2 miles south of final, but that might not be correct. I wish she would talk in LAT/LONese.~
b. Some local guy saw them go over his house at "about 95 feet" in a crab.
c. No CVR, nor was one required.
d. It did not go "straight in" but did have steeper descent angle than "normal" for this type of instrument approach.
Personal observation: I think all discussion about approach descent angles seems a bit off-target when the aircraft is 90 degress to the final approach course, and probably outside approach procedure airspace.
The NTSB lady also stated that someone had been dispatched to the Center, some 200 miles away, to check ATC tapes. Makes me wonder whether Center was working the flight instead of Duluth TRACON. Well, in any case, without an FDR and CVR, all I can say to the investigators: lots of luck.
From Jim Tavenner, Capt. for American:
8. The type of turboprop aircraft now used by regional airlines do not have engines powerful enough for heated wings. About the only aircraft still around in this category include: ATRs, Saab 340s, Dash-8s, Jetstreams, Doniers, and Beech 1900s. All of these aircraft have pneumatic boots, rather than heated wings. Regional Jets now comprise most of the regional airline fleets, and all of those types have heated anti-ice equipment.
I hope these excerpts have been informative and helpful, and will keep the non-fact-based speculation down. These guys are usually pretty close to what ultimately comes out as the cause.
This Lori Price crowd ... whatta bunch of ... sheesh.