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Yup, dead on.

I should add that although I haven't seen any indication that Moose is terribly clever from an Ivy League perspective, that's not necessarily what one wants in a cop anyway. He's done some stuff indicating he's not very emotionally together (like crying in public) that have inadvertently helped to increase his value as a foil. I know I haven't seen enough to finally judge him (although from what I've seen, I frankly am NOT impressed), but I'm not obsessed with his performance because he's not a big player here.

The FBI -- I get killed for saying this here! -- is very very very good. If anyone can get this guy, the FBI can.

I'm not a cop- nor did I stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night- but it sure seems to me this guy is less threatening to a killer than a brilliant, well spoken, high placed LEO.
And I also agree with you about the FBI- They have been doing this kind of negotiation for 75 years- no one can do it better.
Now they can flame us both.