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Matt Salmon won his primary with 130,000+ votes while Janet Napolitano won hers with 90,000+ votes. Before the primary, Janet was running ahead of Matt in the polls. After the primary, Janet was still running ahead in the polls. I just noticed today that Janet was running at 48% while Matt was running at 32% in the polls.

The total primary votes cast for Republican candidates was significantly greater than the total cast for Democratic candidates. Neither candidate has made any significant miscues. Matt's base vote is around 40,000 > Janet's.

Given that, how can the polls show that Janet is leading by double-digits?

I can think of several possibilities:
1). These are push polls
2). There is a significant rejection rate (60% or higher)
3). These are not polls for likely voters
4). Tucson, Phoenix and Tempe are given inordinate weight
5). The demographics of the east valley are totally ignored.

I don't see that the double-digit advantage that pollsters say Janet has over Matt is even beginning to be realistic. In any event, it would appear to me that Matt has a significant advantage based on his primary win alone.

What, if anything, have I missed?

The newspapers are pushing democrats quite heavily. Much more than I have ever seen them push for a candidate. I keep saying that it will be the Mormons and homeschoolers who will push Matt over the top. There is no way that people want a pro-abortion, supporter of same sex unions/benefits, and a Janet Reno clone. Oh, the thought............yuck!!

Also, I have heard that subscriptions to the paper are way down.

Many people are registered R and vote in the R primaries, but are actually Ds at heart and vote D in November?

Many Rs who voted for Matt's opponents in the primary really really dislike Matt and won't give their vote to the guy who beat their guy? (Was it a contentious primary?)

On the flip side, Janet is getting full support from her vanquished opponents and their supporters?

Maybe what doesn't seem like a misstep to you smells to high heaven with a significant block of R voters?

I believe that you are mostly on target. It also bears notice that the total votes cast in the Republican primary exceed those cast in the 'Rat primary by a similar margin. These purposely fallaciously constructed polls are classic Clintonian propaganda. Their purpose is to discourage Republican voters from bothering to vote (it worked here in '96).

What I fear even more is that the "Clean Elections" board plans to create a scandal from nothing at the last moments of the campaign. They have already indicated that they mean to assert that the Salmon campaign's use of cash accounting, rather than cost accounting, is a violation of the law. They will do this despite the fact that the law does not specify and despite their never having issued policy on the subject. CEMA!